ATL: IKE Discussion

[haml8]

Here is a little excerpt from Jeff Masters latest blog:

"The latest 0Z/6Z (8 pm/2 am EDT) computer models show a variety of timings and strengths for Friday's low pressure trough, resulting in a high amount of uncertainty on where Ike will make landfall. Most of the models predict the trough will arrive too late and be too weak to affect Ike, and take Ike ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. These models include the NOGAPS, GFS, and GFDL. The HWRF is bit farther north, placing landfall near Corpus Christi, and the UKMET and ECMWF are farther north still, targeting a region between Freeport and Galveston. Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy. The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike."

Read the whole blog here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1074&tstamp=200809

[ROCK]

From 11 AM Discussion:

THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

well what do you know the NHC thinks highly of the EURO also......

LOL!!!! Don't knock yourself over patting your back!!!LOL!!!! You know I'm j/k!!!

Unfortunately for the Texas coast, the possible trend I feared appears to be starting. Why can't these storms crank up like monsters while in the ocean and then just die before they landfall?

nothing wrong with tooting your own horn so to speak.... yes not a good trend.....

[Nederlander]

I am not having a huge discrepancy with landfall at the moment, simply because its so far out and I think we'll know a lot more once Ike gets to the southern gulf. However, I do think that Ike will be stronger than the NHC indicates. Only showing a Cat 3, when IMO there seems to be no reason why it can't reach at least a Cat 4...


-Insert Unprofessional Disclaimer-

[Sanibel]

GFDL has done well so far. It shifted into Cuba, but was right where the present track is a day earlier. One of the few. Euro into Texas hasn't happened yet.

The lesson of this storm is a plunging High seen days ago is a strong one that sends the storm west.

[ronjon]

Artist and Des5 I'll reply to both of you. The answer is yes the storm would have pulled more N-NW and closer to the SW and west coast of FL in the eastern GOM - so if Ike had traveled through the straits he would have likely taken this path. Some of the models a few days ago showed this. However, it would've been temprorary as that weakness is supposed to fill in a couple of days.

[KWT]

GFDL has done well so far. It shifted into Cuba, but was right where the present track is a day earlier. One of the few. Euro into Texas hasn't happened yet.

The lesson of this storm is a plunging High seen days ago is a strong one that sends the storm west.

To be fair the Euro also had this getting south of Cuba quite some time ago on a few of its runs as well.

Nederlander, well yeah the NHC are probably being consverative at this range but there is nothing wrong with that for now anyways...

[artist]

On the steering winds, here is a classic example of a stronger storm getting pulled more poleward. I attached the 940-949 mb storm pressure steering - as you can see, the weakness or COL is more pronouned between the bubble high in the western GOM and the atlantic ridge east of FL. Go to the steering for a storm at less than 940 mb, and that weakness is even larger with steering generally toward the north. You can also see that that the currents are very light which will also cause Ike to slow down.

Current Steering 950mb-969mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm4.html

940-949 mb steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

<940 mb steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

with what I see here could this even be a Florida storm possibly and if not please show me or tell me how I can tell that. Thanks, just wanting to learn.

A Florida storm? I guess anything is possible but not based on what is out there
right now.

here is what I see as a weakness, obviously it is not so if you could tell me what it is. I do understand you follow the arrows with the steering but the top flow arrow above Ike is pointing north. I hope I am making sense. That is why I want to understand what this area actually is. It just seems he is pushing higher and higher according to these images you posted. Thanks for your help.

[jlauderdal]

I have never heard anyont on the field of meteorology use the verbiage 'COL' as an acronym for cut-off low, because 'col' already has a well-established meaning as the saddle point in a deformation zone.

i have seen it before in miami nws discos not often and googled it and it seems to be more accepted outside the usa, nonetheless we use the terminology that you afm and deltadog use on the board.

I just want to be sure im understanding it all correctly, maybe im totally out to lunch here.


The NASA Goddard three-dimensional chemistry and transport model (3D CTM), utilizing winds and temperatures from a stratospheric data assimilation, is used to investigate the influence of a large cutoff low (COL) system on the transport of chemically processed stratospheric air. The conversion of hydrogen chloride to reactive chlorine is simulated for the early winter of 1991/1992. This heterogeneously converted air is defined as being processed. Throughout December and early January, simulated processed air remained nearly isolated within the Arctic vortex. In late January there were intrusions of midlatitude air across the boundary of the vortex over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe. These intrusions, which are associated with horizontal transport associated with the COL system, dilute regions of highly processed air within several days. The simulation demonstrates the importance of synoptic scale events on processed air distribution within the vortex as well as transport out of the vortex base into the upper troposphere and midlatitudes.

[KWT]

Looking at the NHC chart, the timing is definitely slower than the GFS. IMO it can't be both. If this does come in Saturday AM, or if it slows and comes in Saturday night or Sunday, it will be right of the current track.

Edited: right OF, not right ON!

Well it is a little slower though not by a huge deal, its probably at most about 12hrs slower then the GFS. Gives Ike probably around 84hrs to strengthen up as much as it wants to in very condusive conditions, so it wouldn't be at all surprising if Ike ended up undergoing RI at one point when its in the gulf, esp when its crossing the warm eddies in the gulf.

[Nederlander]

here is what I see as a weakness, obviously it is not so if you could tell me what it is. I do understand you follow the arrows with the steering but the top flow arrow above Ike is pointing north. I hope I am making sense. That is why I want to understand what this area actually is. It just seems he is pushing higher and higher according to these images you posted. Thanks for your help.

you are correct... that is the weakness.. which is why Ike will feel that in the short term.. but all models indicate that weakness will fill back in with High pressure.. forcing Ike west... the trof from Canada is the main player in all of this... IMO

EDIT: however that is the wrong steering map for Ikes current strength... the pressure is too low...look at the map for the 300-850 steering later... thats the correct one

[KWT]

i have seen it before in miami nws discos not often and googled it and it seems to be more accepted outside the usa, nonetheless we use the terminology that you afm and deltadog use on the board.

I have the same understanding here in the UK about a COL as afm and Delta though I suppose its not your everyday term you'd hear being used.

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the NHC chart, the timing is definitely slower than the GFS. IMO it can't be both. If this does come in Saturday AM, or if it slows and comes in Saturday night or Sunday, it will be right of the current track.

Edited: right OF, not right ON!

Well it is a little slower though not by a huge deal, its probably at most about 12hrs slower then the GFS. Gives Ike probably around 84hrs to strengthen up as much as it wants to in very condusive conditions, so it wouldn't be at all surprising if Ike ended up undergoing RI at one point when its in the gulf, esp when its crossing the warm eddies in the gulf.

The NHC doesn't believe now conditions will be ideal (shear) for intensification in the NW GOM per their 11am discussion.

[jasons2k]

Looking at the NHC chart, the timing is definitely slower than the GFS. IMO it can't be both. If this does come in Saturday AM, or if it slows and comes in Saturday night or Sunday, it will be right of the current track.

Edited: right OF, not right ON!

Well it is a little slower though not by a huge deal, its probably at most about 12hrs slower then the GFS. Gives Ike probably around 84hrs to strengthen up as much as it wants to in very condusive conditions, so it wouldn't be at all surprising if Ike ended up undergoing RI at one point when its in the gulf, esp when its crossing the warm eddies in the gulf.

With a trough coming in, 12 hours could equal 100 miles. Just ask Rita.

[ronjon]

here is what I see as a weakness, obviously it is not so if you could tell me what it is. I do understand you follow the arrows with the steering but the top flow arrow above Ike is pointing north. I hope I am making sense. That is why I want to understand what this area actually is. It just seems he is pushing higher and higher according to these images you posted. Thanks for your help.

Yes, that is the area of weakness. Its the COL between two areas of high pressure. COL areas, by their definition, also contain very light steering winds. Hence, a strong storm will want to move toward it, but it will slow down considerably trying to get there. As I said earlier, this weakness is being caused by the first short wave moving through the Great Lakes. In a couple of days, the Atlantic ridge will bridge this weakness and turn Ike more toward the west.

[KWT]

The NHC doesn't believe now conditions will be ideal (shear) for intensification in the NW GOM per their 11am discussion.

Any rapid strengthening will occur in the central gulf IMO, there is a pretty strong warm eddy near 90W thats where this will probably peak...waters in that peak supported Opal upto 150mph so no reason why they won't support Ike to that strength as well.

your right though the GFS has been suggesting there may be some shear in the NW gulf towards the end, it did well forecasting shear for Gustav but has been very poor with other systems.

[hiflyer]

ahhhh....and I wonder if that might also explain the current top heavy appearance as well....thanks for that....helps.

[Air Force Met]

Here is a little excerpt from Jeff Masters latest blog:

"Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy. The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike."

Well Jeff...when everything else was north of you...and then they all shift south of you...it tends to work that way...

They didn't really move...everyone else did.

[Category 5]

Ike made landfall almost exactly where Gustav did.

What a year.

[KWT]

Category 5, yep thats really bad for that area of Cuba, not what the region needed just two weeks after Gustav rampaged its way through Cuba.