ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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Nederlander
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3261 Postby Nederlander » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:07 am

:lol:

The clipper model is trash.........
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ROCK
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3262 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:08 am

Nederlander wrote::lol:

The clipper model is trash.........



clipper is climo.....its about as useless as the AE98 or the LBAR.....which I think the AE98 was blown up last year...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3263 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:08 am

Clipper isn't really a model. It's a climatological average track thrown in for balance.
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karenfromheaven
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Re:

#3264 Postby karenfromheaven » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:10 am

jasons wrote:One thing to notice with this trough coming in is that timing will be critical. That's laid-out in the HPC dicussion.

Now look at how fast the GFS pushes IKE across the Gulf. Anyone think Ike will landfall at 96 hours?

I think it is plausible, if the synoptics play out as envisioned by the GFS. With the first trough only partially weakening the ridge as Ike gets well into the Gulf, there will be plenty of westward push left to sent it quickly into the coast.
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#3265 Postby gboudx » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:11 am

I know. That's why I laughed out loud. My wife asked me why I was laughing and I told her. She said I missed my calling.
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Re:

#3266 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:14 am

gboudx wrote:I know. That's why I laughed out loud. My wife asked me why I was laughing and I told her. She said I missed my calling.


How dumb can that met be? I can't believe he is on TV.
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Re: Re:

#3267 Postby gboudx » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:16 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
gboudx wrote:I know. That's why I laughed out loud. My wife asked me why I was laughing and I told her. She said I missed my calling.


How dumb can that met be? I can't believe he is on TV.


It's kind of par for the course with the guy. He's overly exuberant sometimes. During the Winter, he'll actually show the infamous NTX blizzards produced by the 15 day GFS. The senior met needs to reel him in sometimes.

Anyway, enough off-topic.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3268 Postby karenfromheaven » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:17 am

Sanibel wrote:Clipper isn't really a model. It's a climatological average track thrown in for balance.

Yes, and as a reference. I like seeing it on model plots, because it's what we engineers like to call a "sanity check". It basically says, "Of all the storms that have ever made it to this spot, here is where they have tended to go." If your track varies from the Clipper, you had better have a good explanation why...
Karen
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3269 Postby mattpetre » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:33 am

cycloneye wrote:Image


Bump... latest "spaghetti" chart from earlier.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3270 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:43 am

GFS 24h

Image
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#3271 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:48 am

GFS through 48 Hours no change from 6Z run.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3272 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:51 am

More NW..I'll take a guess and say Freeport on this run.

EDIT: OOpps...Looks like Ridge is in full effect still.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3273 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:51 am

60 hours=Looks more north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3274 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:55 am

Yep, more NW. Easily visible.
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Nederlander
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3275 Postby Nederlander » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:56 am

I am guessing this means we should expect a shift in the GFDL and HWRF to the north?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3276 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:57 am

Nederlander wrote:I am guessing this means we should expect a shift in the GFDL and HWRF to the north?




yeppers......
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3277 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:57 am

72 hours=Already north of the Mexico/Texas Border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif
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#3278 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:58 am

I don't know if it has been posted yet (probably has), but here is a look at the 00z EURO...

Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3279 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:58 am

Man, this is eerily similar to the last EURO run....hmmmmmm.... :lol:


EWG--- great minds think alike..... :lol: thats was weird...
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#3280 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:59 am

EURO leading the way again?
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