ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Dont it always?

72h

[Nederlander]

Dont it always?

72h

Kerry's Fav huh?

[jasons2k]

You can clearly see the ridge erosion taking place there @ 72H

[cycloneye]

84 hours=Just north of Corpus Christi.

[Wx_Warrior]

EDIT: duplicate image

Ridge is gone and High coming in too late....

[dwg71]

Inland just north of Corpus 84-96 hours.

[marcus B]

I knew the south trend last night was too good to be true.

[cycloneye]

Will GFDL follow the northward shift of GFS?

[HouTXmetro]

Taken into account with HPC discussion and the latest UKMET/EURO this could be a HUGE shift North in the models.

[KWT]

Very likely indeed cycloneye, to what extent who knows but seems like the models are just starting to come into better agreement now about the track.

[Stormcenter]

Taken into account with HPC discussion and the latest UKMET/EURO this could be a HUGE shift North in the models.

Like how huge?

[jasons2k]

Looky how fast it erodes the ridge. IMO 84 hours still might be too fast with Ike. And if that's the case, it will be even north/right of that.

[Nederlander]

Will GFDL follow the northward shift of GFS?

yes... along with HWRF and most likely the NHC at the 5 p.m. advisory

[Wx_Warrior]

Do the Cowboys stink? Yes...Meaning the GFDL and HWRF will follow like little puppies

[dwg71]

hwrf already had it there.

[HouTXmetro]

Taken into account with HPC discussion and the latest UKMET/EURO this could be a HUGE shift North in the models.

Like how huge?

I'm not the NHC but probably as far north as Matagorda Bay when it's all said and done. I'll be conservative and say final destination is Corpus but I'm not the NHC. My gut tells me just south of Freeport. JUST AN UNEDUCATED GUESS

Unofficial Forecast

[Nederlander]

looks like AFM was dead on with suggesting a few runs with bends to the west, and then gradual shifts northward...

eerie of what Rita did

[caneman]

Hmm,

Baed on a shift like that if a right trend keeps up Louisiana could be in play within a day or two.

[ROCK]

I been telling you guys for what 10 days now....as the EURo goes as does the models. Matagorda is a good bet but if you go 75 miles north then your looking at Freeport with a low end major moving in from the southwest to NE through DT Houston.....I would be in the NE quad....that doesnt sound good at all...

[Stormcenter]

Hmm,

Baed on a shift like that if a right trend keeps up Louisiana could be in play within a day or two.

and then maybe MS,AL, & FL........not likely.