ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Nederlander]

Hmm,

Baed on shift like that if it keeps up Louisiana could be in play within a day or two.

I think if Ike takes a little bit longer to get through the gulf than expected, thats not out of the question... Ill say Freeport area as a conservative guess...

[Wx_Warrior]

Trough didn't pick it up...looks as if ridge eroded (the word of the day).

[deltadog03]

Trof, errodes the ridge...

[Ed Mahmoud]

That looks like still probably a hurricane near San Antonio.


If I have to be wrong and humiliated (and models have time to swing back to Mexico), might as well go whole hog and have a hurricane travel up I-37.


Lrak probably doesn't appreciate that sentiment...

[dwg71]

Lets see another run, it had 3 or 4 straight going into south Texas/mexico.

[caneman]

Hmm,

Baed on a shift like that if a right trend keeps up Louisiana could be in play within a day or two.

and then maybe MS,AL, & FL........not likely.

Don't think so. Charley shifted quite a bit East within 12 hours. If the East shift keeps up don't be surprised. And remember, You heard it here first

[Nederlander]

Lets see another run, it had 3 or 4 straight going into south Texas/mexico.

i agree dwg... need to see a trend

[haml8]

That looks like still probably a hurricane near San Antonio.


If I have to be wrong and humiliated (and models have time to swing back to Mexico), might as well go whole hog and have a hurricane travel up I-37.


Lrak probably doesn't appreciate that sentiment...

Ed is your confidence in the Mexico track erroding Please say it isn't so, you are a key component of the Houston Hurrican Shield!!

[Portastorm]

Also ... as Jeff Lindner so astutely pointed out in his forecast discussion this morning, the models are still guessing at the strength of the trough coming into the Pacific Northwest. Until we know that, the question of how much will the ridge erode cannot be qualitatively answered, right?

[HouTXmetro]

So where did the GFS make landfall and at what Heading?

[Steve]

>>I been telling you guys for what 10 days now....as the EURo goes as does the models.

Well to be fair, you aren't saying anything that some of us don't already know. The European is far better with the 5-7 day upper setups than the GFS though people parade out stats every year about how great the GFS (and correspondingly, the GFDL and HWRF) was that season on the 72 hour tracks. Problem is, they can't have it both ways. Everyone who has been watching the tropics on the internet for more than 1 or 2 years ought to know that when it comes to the GFS, it still has the tendency to want to recurve systems even after that has been tweaked a few times. It eventually gets things right, but once you've recurved a storm up 40W, 50W, 60W, 70W, and oh yeah, now it's going to hit the Yucatan, you might have just looked at the European to see what type of Atlantic Ridging/Troughing was going to be in place in the 5-7 day range and figured that out yourself.

It's funny though because many Floridians find the ECMWF to be the bane of models because it will overdo ridging sometimes sending systems into Texas. And oh no, we can't have any of that nonsense. Then there are the Texans who discount the GFS and its model suite because it always wants to hit the East Coast first (or at least first after recurving). IMHO, run the blend of models available at the PSU and FSU sites and then go to the ECMWF homesite and see for yourself what's happening. If you run those models at least at the surface and at 500mb every morning, you'll get a good idea what they're seeing and why. And when you see time and time again (in predominately non TUTT, non El Nino seasons) that many of the shortwave ripples moving across the Atlantic or CONUS never actually recurve systems out to see (or even if they do), then you can see which models have a better handling on synoptics and put that into your personal understanding of what's actually going on.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Hmm,

Baed on a shift like that if a right trend keeps up Louisiana could be in play within a day or two.

and then maybe MS,AL, & FL........not likely.

Don't think so. Charley shifted quite a bit East within 12 hours. If the East shift keeps up don't be surprised. And remember, You heard it here first

Do you honestly believe Ike can still end up in Florida?

[caneman]

Also ... as Jeff Lindner so astutely pointed out in his forecast discussion this morning, the models are still guessing at the strength of the trough coming into the Pacific Northwest. Until we know that, the question of how much will the ridge erode cannot be qualitatively answered, right?

That is exactly right. that is still undetermined and based on that there could still big fairly big shifts one way or the other. Meixco to Louisiansa. IMHO

[PTrackerLA]

Ok I've been silent about this, but I will now proclaim myself a Euro hugger! It seems to catch on to trends well before any of the other models, amazing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That looks like still probably a hurricane near San Antonio.


If I have to be wrong and humiliated (and models have time to swing back to Mexico), might as well go whole hog and have a hurricane travel up I-37.


Lrak probably doesn't appreciate that sentiment...

Picture removed

Ed is your confidence in the Mexico track erroding Please say it isn't so, you are a key component of the Houston Hurrican Shield!!

Models have time to wiggle the other way, back to La Pesca. BTW, is the alligator avatar in honor of the Katy alligator dragged to death a couple of years back?

[ROCK]

Also ... as Jeff Lindner so astutely pointed out in his forecast discussion this morning, the models are still guessing at the strength of the trough coming into the Pacific Northwest. Until we know that, the question of how much will the ridge erode cannot be qualitatively answered, right?

true Port......as a reminder the EURO comes out around 2pm CDT.....if its further north well I am not going to say what the other models will do.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Also ... as Jeff Lindner so astutely pointed out in his forecast discussion this morning, the models are still guessing at the strength of the trough coming into the Pacific Northwest. Until we know that, the question of how much will the ridge erode cannot be qualitatively answered, right?

true Port......as a reminder the EURO comes out around 2pm CDT.....if its further north well I am not going to say what the other models will do.....

Still has time to recurve to Louisiana, as well.


The new GFS track would be bad, hurricane hitting San Antonio, and probably cancelling the UT game.

[caneman]

and then maybe MS,AL, & FL........not likely.[/quote]

Don't think so. Charley shifted quite a bit East within 12 hours. If the East shift keeps up don't be surprised. And remember, You heard it here first [/quote]

Do you honestly believe Ike can still end up in Florida?[/quote]

Huh????? Where the heck did you get that from? I said I don''t think so your rather comical statement of MS,AL, Flor. See above. Haven't thought is was coming here in days. Since the first NOAA flight. Louisiana to Mexico still in play.

Charley was only used as an explanation of what can happen with ridge erosion and a trough. Not to imply a FLorida threat. Come on now......... Only to point out wild shifts, in a close in period of time, are still possible until all cards are on the table.

[ROCK]

>>I been telling you guys for what 10 days now....as the EURo goes as does the models.

Well to be fair, you aren't saying anything that some of us don't already know. The European is far better with the 5-7 day upper setups than the GFS though people parade out stats every year about how great the GFS (and correspondingly, the GFDL and HWRF) was that season on the 72 hour tracks. Problem is, they can't have it both ways. Everyone who has been watching the tropics on the internet for more than 1 or 2 years ought to know that when it comes to the GFS, it still has the tendency to want to recurve systems even after that has been tweaked a few times. It eventually gets things right, but once you've recurved a storm up 40W, 50W, 60W, 70W, and oh yeah, now it's going to hit the Yucatan, you might have just looked at the European to see what type of Atlantic Ridging/Troughing was going to be in place in the 5-7 day range and figured that out yourself.

It's funny though because many Floridians find the ECMWF to be the bane of models because it will overdo ridging sometimes sending systems into Texas. And oh no, we can't have any of that nonsense. Then there are the Texans who discount the GFS and its model suite because it always wants to hit the East Coast first (or at least first after recurving). IMHO, run the blend of models available at the PSU and FSU sites and then go to the ECMWF homesite and see for yourself what's happening. If you run those models at least at the surface and at 500mb every morning, you'll get a good idea what they're seeing and why. And when you see time and time again (in predominately non TUTT, non El Nino seasons) that many of the shortwave ripples moving across the Atlantic or CONUS never actually recurve systems out to see (or even if they do), then you can see which models have a better handling on synoptics and put that into your personal understanding of what's actually going on.

Steve

Steve, who's being unfair? point is EURO was / is the trend setter....Other models have followed it from EC to FL to MX.....now there following it up the TX coast...

[Clint_TX]

06z GFDL has a hurricane longtracker.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

was so true....