ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[ROCK]

Also ... as Jeff Lindner so astutely pointed out in his forecast discussion this morning, the models are still guessing at the strength of the trough coming into the Pacific Northwest. Until we know that, the question of how much will the ridge erode cannot be qualitatively answered, right?

That is exactly right. that is still undetermined and based on that there could still big fairly big shifts one way or the other. Meixco to Louisiansa. IMHO

I would aree with you caneman...LA might very well come into play....SW LA...not willing to go farther than that right now...

[HouTXmetro]

Again, where exactly does the GFS have landfall and at what heading?

[Clint_TX]

12Z ECMWF day 7:

man they nailed it...

[dwg71]

Again, where exactly does the GFS have landfall and at what heading?

Just at or north of Corpus and its not a recurve scenerio, take it towards San Antonio, Not back up the coast.

[Stormcenter]

Also ... as Jeff Lindner so astutely pointed out in his forecast discussion this morning, the models are still guessing at the strength of the trough coming into the Pacific Northwest. Until we know that, the question of how much will the ridge erode cannot be qualitatively answered, right?

true Port......as a reminder the EURO comes out around 2pm CDT.....if its further north well I am not going to say what the other models will do.....

Still has time to recurve to Louisiana, as well.

Well to be honest with you if that's the case then it has time to recurve into Florida too but that is not likely unless he stalls or slows down.


The new GFS track would be bad, hurricane hitting San Antonio, and probably cancelling the UT game.

[Steve]

>>man they nailed it...

If you think that's good, get a hold of the August 13th run a good week before Fay did what she did and run the 12z ECMWF. It was ridiculous. But to be fair, runs either side of that showed nothing of the sort. It's not a tropical model whatsoever, it just seems to handle mid-upper patterns a little better than the US generated model.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Also ... as Jeff Lindner so astutely pointed out in his forecast discussion this morning, the models are still guessing at the strength of the trough coming into the Pacific Northwest. Until we know that, the question of how much will the ridge erode cannot be qualitatively answered, right?

That is exactly right. that is still undetermined and based on that there could still big fairly big shifts one way or the other. Meixco to Louisiansa. IMHO

I would aree with you caneman...LA might very well come into play....SW LA...not willing to go farther than that right now...

I'm sure the folks in LA. were saying the same thing with Gustav 4 days out and pointed right at them. We all know how that turned out.

[leaf blower]

Is ukmet or ecm on this? If yes which ones and if no why?

Sorry if its a stoopid question

[caneman]

OK Guys it has done well with 2 systems now and this one is yet to be fully determined. GFDl has still performed best for the year-to my knowledge. You want the win on this one you got it but remember you're losing the war with the repetitiveness of having to read the same thing, over and over and over again. The I'm right your wrong posts. Perhaps that is why a lot of outside of Texas posters aren't posting. So, please let stop and talk reallistically aouut pattern and where it might make landfall. Then after that you can go on and on about the Euro and I or others who don't want to read it won't have to read it in order to keep up with this system. Sound fair?

[caneman]

That is exactly right. that is still undetermined and based on that there could still big fairly big shifts one way or the other. Meixco to Louisiansa. IMHO[/quote]



I would aree with you caneman...LA might very well come into play....SW LA...not willing to go farther than that right now...[/quote]


I'm sure the folks in LA. were saying the same thing with Gustav 4 days out and pointed right at them. We all know how that turned out.[/quote]

Gustav is one of the few systems that I can remember that was so dead smack on that far out.

[dwg71]

UKMET shifted South, FYI, not a bunch Landfall now down around Matagorda.

[bzukajo]

I am keeping a very close eye on this. Flying into Houston on Thursday. Saturday I have reservations for a moving truck to move from one apartment to another. I hope that the models that have this storm going south stay that way!

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET landfall near Matagorda,Texas.It curves NW at the end of run.


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2008



HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 82.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 09.09.2008 22.3N 82.2W MODERATE

00UTC 10.09.2008 23.1N 84.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2008 23.8N 85.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2008 24.5N 87.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2008 24.6N 89.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2008 25.0N 91.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2008 26.5N 94.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.09.2008 29.3N 96.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.09.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[HouTXmetro]

South shift by the UKMET but still close enough into Matagorda Bay.

[shah8]

Ukmet is a change of timing. I suspect the south shift is a bit less than it shows on the map.

[dwg71]

South shift by the UKMET but still close enough into Matagorda Bay.

But is it a trend down further south, models seem to be moving towards an area from Border to Matagorda Bay. Split the difference and you have the current NHC track.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is more north with landfall at Galveston.

[Stratosphere747]

South shift by the UKMET but still close enough into Matagorda Bay.

But is it a trend down further south, models seem to be moving towards an area from Border to Matagorda Bay. Split the difference and you have the current NHC track.

Without knowing the upcoming GFDL, HWRF and Euro runs, the indications are that the trend to the S has stopped and will begin to shift back up the coast.

[ROCK]

Dwg, you never quite do you? guidance be damned...

CMC up towards Freeport.....UKMET shift is TAD south and I mean TAD...., GFS near matagorda, GFDL HWRF soon to follow and the EURO leading the way...

[ROCK]

South shift by the UKMET but still close enough into Matagorda Bay.

But is it a trend down further south, models seem to be moving towards an area from Border to Matagorda Bay. Split the difference and you have the current NHC track.

Without knowing the upcoming GFDL, HWRF and Euro runs, the indications are that the trend to the S has stopped and will begin to shift back up the coast.

Yes Scott, I will have the EURO around 1:45 up to around 86 hrs......You know me I will sure pass along....