ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[txag2005]

So far it looks like this next set has runs centered on Matagorda with the CMC near Galveston Bay.

People in Houston have already begun to write this storm off. I've gotten at least 5 emails from friends and family at work today saying, "looks like Houston is safe this time" and people have been making those comments in the office.

[JessRomero]

I will tell you this too alot of people have written it off but I haven't I think some people forgot what the models did with Rita! I am still getting ready for this storm my gut tell me galveston to SWLA is going to get this storm now If I am WRONG and I hope so I really feel for whomever IKE hits. I just wish the models would stop flip flopping around and pick a area and STICK with it

[Houstonia]

I am keeping a very close eye on this. Flying into Houston on Thursday. Saturday I have reservations for a moving truck to move from one apartment to another. I hope that the models that have this storm going south stay that way!

Probably going to get rain regardless - so be prepared for a wet move...

[txag2005]

I will tell you this too alot of people have written it off but I haven't I think some people forgot what the models did with Rita! I am still getting ready for this storm my gut tell me galveston to SWLA is going to get this storm now If I am WRONG and I hope so I really feel for whomever IKE hits. I just wish the models would stop flip flopping around and pick a area and STICK with it

The general population bases their hurricane knowledge on what the local news channels say for the most part. I don't typically watch local news, but I've been hearing that local mets are making comments that we are out of the fire and there is nothing to worry about.

Thankfully we have resources like this to keep us informed and for us to pass that knowledge on. I'm definitely letting others know what the new model runs are doing. It's no guarantee we're going to get hit, but it shows the chance is still there.

[cycloneye]

Big GFDL shift north,now landfall Between Freeport and Galveston Bay.

WHXX04 KWBC 091730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.4 82.4 285./11.1
6 22.9 83.3 298./ 9.3
12 23.2 84.0 299./ 7.2
18 23.9 84.8 309./10.3
24 24.4 85.5 305./ 8.0
30 25.0 86.2 310./ 8.0
36 25.3 86.9 294./ 7.7
42 25.5 87.8 285./ 8.0
48 25.6 88.7 278./ 8.8
54 25.9 89.9 282./10.4
60 26.1 91.0 280./10.4
66 26.4 92.3 283./11.6
72 26.8 93.4 291./11.3
78 27.4 94.6 297./11.6
84 28.1 95.7 304./12.3
90 28.8 96.5 310./ 9.6
96 29.8 97.0 331./11.1
102 30.9 97.3 348./11.0
108 32.3 96.8 16./15.1
114 34.3 96.1 20./21.2
120 36.6 94.6 34./25.7
126 38.8 91.4 55./33.3

[deltadog03]

Ok, so, I think we can agree that they models are starting too see the incoming trof better....I think they are gonna be working that out over the next day or 2 better. Now, its gonna depend on the speed of how fast ike moves...IF** he slows down some...that track is gonna go further EAST. GFS still looks too fast, but slowing down.

[haml8]

I will tell you this too alot of people have written it off but I haven't I think some people forgot what the models did with Rita! I am still getting ready for this storm my gut tell me galveston to SWLA is going to get this storm now If I am WRONG and I hope so I really feel for whomever IKE hits. I just wish the models would stop flip flopping around and pick a area and STICK with it

The general population bases their hurricane knowledge on what the local news channels say for the most part. I don't typically watch local news, but I've been hearing that local mets are making comments that we are out of the fire and there is nothing to worry about.

Thankfully we have resources like this to keep us informed and for us to pass that knowledge on. I'm definitely letting others know what the new model runs are doing. It's no guarantee we're going to get hit, but it shows the chance is still there.

I didn't get that from watching KHOU at noon today.. David Paul was very austere in pointing out that this is not over and that we need to focus on the conce not the line and that even if it goes south of HOU/GLS that we will be adversly effected. They are doing a nice job of maintaining calm and providing scenarios including steering currents/highs/troughs etc..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Big GFDL shift north,now landfall Between Freeport and Galveston Bay.

WHXX04 KWBC 091730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.4 82.4 285./11.1
6 22.9 83.3 298./ 9.3
12 23.2 84.0 299./ 7.2
18 23.9 84.8 309./10.3
24 24.4 85.5 305./ 8.0
30 25.0 86.2 310./ 8.0
36 25.3 86.9 294./ 7.7
42 25.5 87.8 285./ 8.0
48 25.6 88.7 278./ 8.8
54 25.9 89.9 282./10.4
60 26.1 91.0 280./10.4
66 26.4 92.3 283./11.6
72 26.8 93.4 291./11.3
78 27.4 94.6 297./11.6
84 28.1 95.7 304./12.3
90 28.8 96.5 310./ 9.6
96 29.8 97.0 331./11.1
102 30.9 97.3 348./11.0
108 32.3 96.8 16./15.1
114 34.3 96.1 20./21.2
120 36.6 94.6 34./25.7
126 38.8 91.4 55./33.3

12Z feels that weakness a bit more in the 48 hr timeframe..

[Weatherfreak000]

Models might finally be seeing a North turn...I wouldn't count Texas completely for this storm...much like with Rita SW LA is very much in this game unfortunately.

[Stormcenter]

Didn't the NHC basically ignore what the GFDL was showing on Sunday
when it had Ike going toward AL. and the other models were pointed at Texas?

[Nexus]

Is ukmet or ecm on this? If yes which ones and if no why?

Sorry if its a stoopid question

If you look at the subtitle on your map, that is for the early-cycle models, which are less computer intensive. The processor busting dynamic models come out after those.

[Stormcenter]

Models might finally be seeing a North turn...I wouldn't count Texas completely for this storm...much like with Rita SW LA is very much in this game unfortunately.

Not after only one particular model run.

[txag2005]

What is the intensity forcast on the GFDL?

[KWT]

Problem is the GFDL has handled this set-up very well thus far and if the ECM agrees with the UKMO then thats a big swing back north.

[cycloneye]

What is the intensity forcast on the GFDL?

In a few minutes the graphic will be released and we will know.

[Stormcenter]

Problem is the GFDL has handled this set-up very well thus far and if the ECM agrees with the UKMO then thats a big swing back north.

How do you come to that conclusion?

[jasons2k]

Don't even look at the HWRF

[Brent]

Big GFDL shift north,now landfall Between Freeport and Galveston Bay.

More like Matagorda per the points, but still a huge shift north.

[JessRomero]

It really makes me so frustrated that I talk to people and they think it isn't coming here now and I tell them models change and tracks change ALL THE TIME... and they argue saying well the models won't shift that much I am like geez people start watching things on ur own along with the news and mets. these models r made by people and they r going to make mistakes just as much as mets it really is a BIG guessing game where these storms go. I think people seem to forgot what has happened with MANY storms where we think we have it pin pointed to go somewhere and it does the TOTAL oppsite. GRR Sorry needed to vent lol I think LA and TX along with MX and TX need to watch him closely!

[shah8]

another apocalypto-cane?

Jeez, they are going to have to tweak that model. It keeps frigging scaring us to bits on every hurricane!