ATL: IKE Discussion

[haml8]

Well, that weakness is not suppose to stay there longer than 48 hours.....But, in the short term yes, towards that weakness....

Thanks for clarifying it for me. Appreciate your input.

[HURAKAN]

Looking great over Cuba.

[gboudx]

Looking great over Cuba.

From this perspective, yes. From ground level, probably not so much.

[cycloneye]

About 4 hours to move offshore.

[KWT]

It really looks to me that even though the eye is starting to collapse that the banding is actually improving over the ocean. Not a good sign. Inner core and structure are still well intact.

It also took a rather significant wobble to the west just as it made landfall.

Looks like the eye is having a hard time getting into the gulf right now, it seems to have taken a bit of a west wobble just recently and slowed right down.

Anyway eye looks like its in the process of closing up somewhat now.

[dwg71]

It is definately weakening, just how much damage is done to the inner core, will be hard to tell for a while.

IMO, it appears to be tropical storm Ike right now.

[Derek Ortt]

This is what amazes me about Hurricane forecasting. The forecast has been calling for little sheer, and now that is changing. So much can change, and we probably haven't seen the whole story with Ike yet.

If Ike survived more than 40kts of shear in the Atlantic,why not survive again in the WGOM.

it also weakened a lot due to the shear, Luis

[KWT]

dwg71, look at Hurakan's image, I'd guess thats still a hurricane, indeed the presentation has improved overland compared to what it was about 6hrs ago!

[bob rulz]

It is definately weakening, just how much damage is done to the inner core, will be hard to tell for a while.

IMO, it appears to be tropical storm Ike right now.

It's possible. I'm surprised this was only 80mph the whole time it was underneath Cuba with the way it looked. It looked like a cat 2 when it made landfall even though it was barely a cat 1. So if this has weakened to a tropical storm it's probably the best tropical storm I've ever seen, but since it looks like a cat 1 I guess that means it's a tropical storm, eh?

However, this really doesn't look like it's weakened at all yet. If anything it's probably at the least 75mph, good possibility that it's still 80. Again, if that's a tropical storm it's the best-looking tropical storm I've ever seen!

[KWT]

it also weakened a lot due to the shear, Luis

Derek, when you say that conditions are hostile in the gulf, what part of the gulf?
I do see some upper shear right now in the order of 10-20kts just to the west and the upper high is strong but there is very little mid level shear there for now, would the upper level shear really be that harmful?

[ronjon]

I see a northward drift over the last hour on RAD - has slowed down as it is forecast to over the next 36-48 hrs. I think the slight northward movement is just compensating for the earlier west movement - perhaps slowly stair stepping NW now.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Sabanic]

Don't know if this has been posted yet...but, if it bombs and does so fairly quickly look what awaits him....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm6.GIF

So are you implying that if he goes ballistic and increases in intensity VERY quickly to a Cat 3 storm that the steering winds would take him into florida panhandle?

I am not questioning you just trying to understand what you really mean or are forecasting IF he bombs out..

FL/PH is not the only area in that weakness although we probably will not be seeing Ike

[jinftl]

Almost go as far as to say downright windy today!

From NWS Miami, winds as of 1pm:

W PALM BEACH E23G29
FT LAUDERDALE E23G32
PEMBROKE PINES E30G37
OPA LOCKA E25G38
MIAMI E23G32
WEST KENDALL SE23G41
HOMESTEAD E22G28

[KWT]

jinftl, yeah does look like it, west kendell getting gust of 41kts, pretty impressive with many places getting gusts into the mid 30s.

[wxman57]

Movement measurements:

3hr - 286 deg at 8 kts
2hr - 286 deg at 8 kts
1hr - 286 deg at 8 kts

Note that the above was using radar. Using satellite, I get a motion closer to 275 degrees.

[jinftl]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
110 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...OUTER RAIN BAND MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST
COLLIER COUNTIES...

AT 107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN OUTER RAIN BAND ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO
MICCOSUKEE RESORT TO FORTY MILE BEND...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS IN THE RAIN BAND WERE MOVING TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

THIS RAIN BAND WILL AFFECT...

NORTHERN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

ALSO...THE STORMS IN THE RAIN BAND ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[HURAKAN]

Before I left to school the highest gust in my house was 30 mph. Higher than what I got from Fay!

[ROCK]

Movement measurements:

3hr - 286 deg at 8 kts
2hr - 286 deg at 8 kts
1hr - 286 deg at 8 kts

man, you METS everytime you type in degrees I have to pulll out the compass....

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Movement measurements:

3hr - 286 deg at 8 kts
2hr - 286 deg at 8 kts
1hr - 286 deg at 8 kts

All three show more slow movement as it was forecasted.