ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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Raider Power
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3381 Postby Raider Power » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:51 pm

haml8 wrote:
txag2005 wrote:
JessRomero wrote:I will tell you this too alot of people have written it off but I haven't I think some people forgot what the models did with Rita! I am still getting ready for this storm my gut tell me galveston to SWLA is going to get this storm now If I am WRONG and I hope so I really feel for whomever IKE hits. I just wish the models would stop flip flopping around and pick a area and STICK with it :eek:


The general population bases their hurricane knowledge on what the local news channels say for the most part. I don't typically watch local news, but I've been hearing that local mets are making comments that we are out of the fire and there is nothing to worry about.

Thankfully we have resources like this to keep us informed and for us to pass that knowledge on. I'm definitely letting others know what the new model runs are doing. It's no guarantee we're going to get hit, but it shows the chance is still there.


I didn't get that from watching KHOU at noon today.. David Paul was very austere in pointing out that this is not over and that we need to focus on the conce not the line and that even if it goes south of HOU/GLS that we will be adversly effected. They are doing a nice job of maintaining calm and providing scenarios including steering currents/highs/troughs etc..


I agree. I saw David Paul on 11, Kristy Powers on 26, Anthony Yanez on 2 and Casey Curry on 13 this morning and all reported the large shift to the south, but emphasized that Houston at that time remained in the cone and that all points should continue to pay attention. I actually think the local stations are really struggling to not go to all out bonkers mode, with reporters standing in any puddle they can find. They really took a beating from radio and newspapers, particularly Ken Hoffman, over their overblown coverage of Edouard. Better so far with Ike.
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#3382 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:51 pm

Watch the Euro go back to STX/MEX :)
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3383 Postby Aristotle » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:52 pm

Glad HWRF is ridiculous. I like Galveston!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3384 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:52 pm

GFDL, more realistic with the intensity. :lol:

Image
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Re:

#3385 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:53 pm

dwg71 wrote:These huge swings are puzzeling to say the least.


Puzzling.....the GFS,GFDL and HRWF have been doing this throughout
Ike's history. HRWF went from AL. to Texas in one run. You can take
it for what it's worth. Anyway we shall see.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3386 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:54 pm

Brent wrote:GFDL, more realistic with the intensity. :lol:

Image


But still very powerful.
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Re:

#3387 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:54 pm

dwg71 wrote:These huge swings are puzzeling to say the least.


Why are these puzzeling?? We go through this EVERY FALL and WINTER with the trofs....Happens every year....
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Re: Re:

#3388 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:54 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:South shift by the UKMET but still close enough into Matagorda Bay.


But is it a trend down further south, models seem to be moving towards an area from Border to Matagorda Bay. Split the difference and you have the current NHC track.


Dude...you're really reaching.

GFDL now near UKMET track over SW Matagorda County. UKMET didn't really shift that much south. GFS is now NORTH of NHC track. GFDL, as predicted, shifted 200 miles NE. You split the diff and you have something that is 60nm NE of the NHC track.



he likes to pull our chain sometimes AMF.....DWG...lets look at the consensus please......media gets this at 5:00 and here we go...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3389 Postby Sabanic » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:54 pm

Aristotle wrote:
txag2005 wrote:899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????



No thats the number of the beast~~~!!!!!!


A storm that strong would blow that weakness apart!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3390 Postby JessRomero » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:55 pm

Well to say the least I am not in Houston so my news coverage is going to be different. Don't get me wrong I love my news but sometimes i think my weather people here get to OVERLY confident in there selves to say the least and it BACK fires in the worst way u would think they would learn there lesson. But they don't. SO I am still packing and getting ready as if this is going to do what Rita did and until it makes land other than were I am I take no chance with my family this is mothernature she will do as she please lol she is a women for pete's sake lol
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#3391 Postby shah8 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:55 pm

GFDL is all too close to Freeport. I think if you're concerned about Houston, Freeport is the big X.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3392 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:55 pm

jasons wrote:
txag2005 wrote:899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????


Yeah, but the windfield is Cat 4. Still, it is the HWRF....unlikely scenario.



Both may be unlikely scenarios.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3393 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:56 pm

12z HWRF animation.Its scary only by seeing it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3394 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:ROCK,the board is yours now,bring on the 12z EURO. :)





The EURO comes out for me around 2:00pm CDT.....I will post......the models have followed the EURO to this point.....lets see where they go next..... :lol:


long live the ECM!!!!!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3395 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:56 pm

Now RELAX people, whilst Ike is still said to be a major hurricane upon landfall conditions have to be unbelievably well for it to be a Cat 5 hurricane in the gulf and 'certain' models are known for ramping up a system too much.

I'm not playing this system down here but right now but irrational panicking is not going to help.
Last edited by apocalypt-flyer on Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3396 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:57 pm

GFDL more realistic in terms of strength but 944mbs is a pretty severe hurricane, probably high end 3 if you were to use the pressure as a rough guess.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3397 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z HWRF animation.Its scary only by seeing it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


LOL Look out Lake Michigan!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3398 Postby Aristotle » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z HWRF animation.Its scary only by seeing it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


Lol, the track is scary but this thing has a cat 1 over dallas!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3399 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:58 pm

12z GFDL,is another scary viewing loop.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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#3400 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:58 pm

GFDL deviates greatly from the other models in the first 24 hours, I think it has do do with the weakness north of IKE now, more than the erosion of the high later.

It takes IKE NW directly off of Cuba, before bending back west.

Would like to see what others do in the next 24 hours. It may verify, but it seems so much different in the short run.
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