ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[rtd2]

899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????

No thats the number of the beast~~~!!!!!!

A storm that strong would blow that weakness apart!

for sure...talk about creating its on enviroment

[shah8]

You know...looking at the guidance, I can see why the gfdl and hwrf are showing such severe canes. It goes right over the warmest waters in the gulf, with what appears to be a biggarsed anticyclone over it. The intensity guidance is not that far off, and the chances of a Katrina for Matagorda-Houston area is not low enough.

[jimguru]

Greetings all - maybe someone can help clarify something for me on the models - Why is the LBAR so different than the rest ?

[KWT]

HWRF takes Ike in at 125kts, 145mph or about the peak of Ike the first time round...

[ROCK]

Odds are not in favor of Ike reaching any of these pressures....

[Brent]

Greetings all - maybe someone can help clarify something for me on the models - Why is the LBAR so different than the rest ?

Because it's the LBAR.

[cycloneye]

I think NHC at 5 PM will go to the middle between the very high intensity of GFDL and HWRF and somewhat lower intensity by SHIP.

[Aristotle]

I think NHC at 5 PM will go to the middle between the very high intensity of GFDL and HWRF and somewhat lower intensity by SHIP.

Whats Ship got for intensity at land fall?

[cycloneye]

I think NHC at 5 PM will go to the middle between the very high intensity of GFDL and HWRF and somewhat lower intensity by SHIP.

Whats Ship got for intensity at land fall?

This morning SHIP had 81kts.

[KWT]

They will probably hold the 100kts just like they did last advisory, bang in the middle.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I think NHC at 5 PM will go to the middle between the very high intensity of GFDL and HWRF and somewhat lower intensity by SHIP.

Anybody got a link of some good GFS resolutions that show how deep that model goes?

[Nederlander]

this is deja vu with rita

[JessRomero]

this is deja vu with rita

U are thinking what i was thinking I am getting my stuff ready there is too much similar that is what makes me nervous.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep....Rita projected landfall late Friday/Saturday...
Ike projected: about the same (more Saturday)

Monday: Rita models pointed south
Monday: Ike models pointed south

Well, I could go on, but case closed.

[micktooth]

Greetings all - maybe someone can help clarify something for me on the models - Why is the LBAR so different than the rest ?

This is from the Hurricane Alley Website:http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm


LBAR (Limited area BARotropic)...
This model is a two-dimensional track prediction model that is initialized with vertically-averaged winds and upper atmospheric air pressures from the Aviation run of the MRF global model. An idealized symmetric vortex is added to the global analysis to represent the storm's circulation. The boundary conditions are obtained from the global model forecast. LBAR is the NHC's implementation of the GFDL VICAR model. (VICBAR stands for Vic Ooyama's Barotropic model.) The storm environment domain analysis is produced with a two-dimensional spectral application of finite element representation, using all available data (rawindsondes, cloud drift winds, aircraft observations, etc.), with the NCEP global model analysis used as a low level background field. The vortex domain analysis consists of synthetic observations representing storm circulation and current storm motion. The vortex is prescribed to be the same size and intensity in all directions (axisymmetric), with winds increasing linearly from the center to the radius of maximum winds. Wind speeds beyond the radius of maximum winds are prescribed to decrease exponentially to the edge of the storm. In the event of multiple tropical cyclones, synthetic vortices are included for each storm. The simplicity of barotropic models means they can be run quickly on inexpensive computers. In the LBAR prediction model, the shallow water equations are solved on a series of nested grid meshes on a Mercator projection. The inner meshes move to remain centered on the storm, while the outer mesh is fixed geographically. Time-dependent boundary conditions from the AVN model run are applied outward from a transition zone between 1500 and 2500 kin. LBAR runs on a 6-hr forecast cycle and produces forecasts out to 72 hr

[Steve]

>>Greetings all - maybe someone can help clarify something for me on the models - Why is the LBAR so different than the rest ?

You have guru behind the Jim.

Steve

[jimguru]

>>Greetings all - maybe someone can help clarify something for me on the models - Why is the LBAR so different than the rest ?

You have guru behind the Jim.

Steve

True, True - This LBAR is kind of a rogue model almost it seems - Historically does it ever even come close? I am new to Atlantic / Gulf Storm Basin scene.

[RL3AO]

True, True - This LBAR is kind of a rogue model almost it seems - Historically does it ever even come close? I am new to Atlantic / Gulf Storm Basin scene.

Nope. Its almost always an outlier.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS offers another very interesting scenario for Oklahoma after landfall. It shows pressures dropping below 1000mb in Oklahoma city with high winds, and very heavy rains! This weekend is going to be downright nasty if this plays out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Clint_TX]

this is deja vu with rita

I'll take september shortwaves for a 1000 Bob....