ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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Blind squirrel type thing. Someone presented a graphic in one of these model threads which, IIRC (and that's a highly doubtful proposition), LBAR nailed Katrina about three days out when others were pointing to PC - TAL area. That could well have been one shot when all prior and subsequent runs depicted something completely off the wall.
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>>True, True - This LBAR is kind of a rogue model almost it seems - Historically does it ever even come close? I am new to Atlantic / Gulf Storm Basin scene.
Not really. It's pretty rogue as you said. Clipper is the same way, and I'm not even sure why they still use that one. I guess there's an old timer there somewhere whose job might be in jeopardy if they nixed it or something.
Steve
Not really. It's pretty rogue as you said. Clipper is the same way, and I'm not even sure why they still use that one. I guess there's an old timer there somewhere whose job might be in jeopardy if they nixed it or something.
Steve
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gboudx
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Re:
Steve wrote:>>True, True - This LBAR is kind of a rogue model almost it seems - Historically does it ever even come close? I am new to Atlantic / Gulf Storm Basin scene.
Not really. It's pretty rogue as you said. Clipper is the same way, and I'm not even sure why they still use that one. I guess there's an old timer there somewhere whose job might be in jeopardy if they nixed it or something.
Steve
You see what I posted about the CLP5 and a local TV met? Back a few pages. BTW, where you been? Haven't seen you around.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
12z NOGAPS stays south with landfall at Mexico/Texas border.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Watch for north shifts in GFDL. We are getting close to its accurate range 60 hours out.
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HouTXmetro
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What type of shift do we have with the EURO and NOGAPS from previous runs?
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Air Force Met
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Not much @ all...High erodes, so I'll leave to be safe. Golden Triangle will get 80+mph and wind.
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Ed Mahmoud
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
NHC track likely to shift north at 5.
Last edited by Brent on Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ed Mahmoud
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haml8
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Air Force Met wrote:
Close to Matagorda.
What he said.
Ed, did you go out and get more ammunition?
j/kWhat is your Climatology telling you at this point with this shift north.. ie westerlies etc..
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Brent wrote:NHC track likely to shift north at 5.
Why do I get the feeling our northerly shifts are not done yet..Galveston area would not surprise me at all..
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