ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Do you all think they will call for an Evacuation of Galveston with the latest runs showing more north and possible recurve?

[rtd2]

Models shifting North, Rita Part 2????

I can smell a Louisiana storm cooking...

Made with a roux started with bacon grease, and celery, onions and green pepper, then rice, pre-soaked beans, chicken bits, and some cayenne added for flavor.

wouldnt freak some folks out if the used the CLP5 model for the cone. from Mexico to Pensacola

[PTrackerLA]

That Euro would lead to a nasty surge even in SW LA. Not good news. Most people in LA have already written Ike off but this goes to show we must still watch it. My initial thoughts of Matagorda - Vermilion bay might just pan out. I have a strong feeling we aren't done with these shifts, thoughts anyone else?

[mattpetre]

Models shifting North, Rita Part 2????

I can smell a Louisiana storm cooking...

Made with a roux started with bacon grease, and celery, onions and green pepper, then rice, pre-soaked beans, chicken bits, and some cayenne added for flavor.

You just won't give it up and I have to admire you for that I do agree with you that this whole thing could be very Rita-esque... I just hope that doesn't make people in G'ston and Houston more complacent than they should be.

[LaBreeze]

Models shifting North, Rita Part 2????

I can smell a Louisiana storm cooking...

Made with a roux started with bacon grease, and celery, onions and green pepper, then rice, pre-soaked beans, chicken bits, and some cayenne added for flavor.

Start with your "holy trinity."

[Stormcenter]

Models shifting North, Rita Part 2????

I can smell a Louisiana storm cooking...

Made with a roux started with bacon grease, and celery, onions and green pepper, then rice, pre-soaked beans, chicken bits, and some cayenne added for flavor.

This unfortunately this still has Texas still written all over it. There is a possibliity it may
get as far north as SW LA. But hey I know what you are hoping for.

[Praxus]

Its pretty hard to see it hitting LA at this point!

[Sabanic]

Its pretty hard to see it hitting LA at this point!

I wouldn't be 100% sure about that just yet. Long ways yet to go.

[Stormcenter]

That Euro would lead to a nasty surge even in SW LA. Not good news. Most people in LA have already written Ike off but this goes to show we must still watch it. My initial thoughts of Matagorda - Vermilion bay might just pan out. I have a strong feeling we aren't done with these shifts, thoughts anyone else?

I think it goes as far north as the TX/La. border.
I'm sure the NHC anticipated some changes like this
possibly happening with the models. This can easily shift back
south with the next runs or not at all. It's been this storm's
signature throughout it's history. How quickly we forget the Cat.5
hitting Miami on Sunday.

[lrak]

We need some of that Chinese magic dust!

[Stormcenter]

Its pretty hard to see it hitting LA at this point!

I wouldn't be 100% sure about that just yet. Long ways yet to go.

Not SW LA. That is still in the cards. The High will remain strong enough
to keep it that far west. JMHO

[Steve]

>>I wouldn't be 100% sure about that just yet. Long ways yet to go.

I'm about 99% sure it won't be. Even if it hits Cameron Parish and wipes it out, again, it'll still be a Texas storm if you ask HURRIKAN

Steve

[PTrackerLA]

I'd be SHOCKED if it hit LA at this point. I mean we're talking the most dramatic model/path swings in recent memory. Like I said even a Galveston hit would cause more problems in the western part of the state, just what we DON'T need. Here I was ready to finally open all the shutters and take the outdoor furniture out of the garage this morning. Looks like I may need to wait.

[Jessie]

Why are all the models turning Ike back to the right when he hits land. Is it possible for him to take that right turn while he's still in the gulf?

[dwg71]

Why are all the models turning Ike back to the right when he hits land. Is it possible for him to take that right turn while he's still in the gulf?

yes, it depends on strength of shortwave trough coming through conus from NW.

Strong Trough/slow storm = Could turn while still in gulf.
Weak Trough/fast Storm = Turn after it makes landfall

[Shoshana]

Do you all think they will call for an Evacuation of Galveston with the latest runs showing more north and possible recurve?

City of Galveston Website

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas and City Manager Steve LeBlanc held a press conference earlier today to reiterate the City of Galveston’s hurricane preparedness message. Should Hurricane Ike make landfall on or near Galveston Island, Mayor Thomas encourages all citizens to be prepared and stay informed about the approaching storm. “Complacency is not the game to play right now,” stated Mayor Thomas. “Citizens must be prepared in case Hurricane Ike is forecasted to make landfall on the island. Its our job to protect lives and property, its a job we take very seriously,” she added.



At this time NO evacuation has been ordered.

I've been watching what she does this year because I have a friend that works on the island and she doesn't seem to call for evacuation easily. I'm not sure she would even if a hurricane was forecast to hit Galveston...

[Stormcenter]

I'd be SHOCKED if it hit LA at this point. I mean we're talking the most dramatic model/path swings in recent memory. Like I said even a Galveston hit would cause more problems in the western part of the state, just what we DON'T need. Here I was ready to finally open all the shutters and take the outdoor furniture out of the garage this morning. Looks like I may need to wait.

It looks like Ike has his eye (pun intended) fixed on the Texas coast. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html middle or upper

[rtd2]

Its pretty hard to see it hitting LA at this point!

I wouldn't be 100% sure about that just yet. Long ways yet to go.

LA= Los Angeles? LA= Lower Alabama? cant mean LouisiAna?

[gboudx]

Its pretty hard to see it hitting LA at this point!

I wouldn't be 100% sure about that just yet. Long ways yet to go.

LA= Los Angeles? LA= Lower Alabama? cant mean LouisiAna?

Can, and does.

[Bluefrog]

LA = the US Postal Service abbreviation for Louisiana. I have never seen someone talk about Los Angeles on this board. And where is lower Alabama .... j/k neighbors.