ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Models are certainly trending back north, not that surprising as the GFS based models probably went a little too far west yesterday and now adjusting a more realistic set-up.

[deltadog03]

If I am sitting in nola and just west...Lake charles....I would be watching this with a lot of care...Remember....IMO, If Ike slows down, trof has more time to hook it more.

[Jessie]

Thanks --- I can watch the storm speed, but is there a way I can track the strength of the shortwave trough? Our local university needs to offer a continuing ed course on hurricanes.

[caneman]

Delta,
you're preachin to the choir here brother. We know all to well how these ridge breadown/troughs work on the West coast of Florida. Don't be surprised to see it go more right. Speaking from experience, no real facts, not an expert and barely a good amateur.

[rtd2]

LA = the US Postal Service abbreviation for Louisiana. I have never seen someone talk about Los Angeles on this board. And where is lower Alabama .... j/k neighbors.

Thanks but my post was dripping with sarcasm as I couldnt believe someone would rule out LA with a storm still east of 90w thats why I thought they MUST be speaking of los angeles or lower alabama.

[SWLASTORMTRACKER]

If I am sitting in nola and just west...Lake charles....I would be watching this with a lot of care...Remember....IMO, If Ike slows down, trof has more time to hook it more.

How much would Ike have to slow down and for how long for it to threaten south LA?

[Mattie]

That Euro would lead to a nasty surge even in SW LA. Not good news. Most people in LA have already written Ike off but this goes to show we must still watch it. My initial thoughts of Matagorda - Vermilion bay might just pan out. I have a strong feeling we aren't done with these shifts, thoughts anyone else?

Just sort of puts that "sick feeling" in your stomach as you watch. You are right - LA has quit watching so closely. This will have them back at attention I'm sure. We'll see what the next update will bring.

[Stormcenter]

If I am sitting in nola and just west...Lake charles....I would be watching this with a lot of care...Remember....IMO, If Ike slows down, trof has more time to hook it more.

I say anything west of Lake Charles is a long shot right now unless her slows down big time and then the MS.AL. and FL. coast come in play...unlikely IMO.

[JessRomero]

I am in the Golden Triangle ( port neches Tx) and I will tell ya'll this there r no rooms VACANT from here to dallas I have looked and looked I am getting out of here. I have a a bad feeling about IKE and I think the models will start agreeing TX/LA line . Do I smell and MargaRITA number 2! yes I do.

[deltadog03]

Your right mattie....Media, from what I hear, has almost sounded the all clear for nola....Can't believe that....

For the chance of stalling...eh, 50/50...Imo the gfs and its kids...gfdl, hwrf...are running this too quickly.

[dwg71]

If there is any good news, it appears only to be about a 50Kt TS right now.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[BigB0882]

If I am sitting in nola and just west...Lake charles....I would be watching this with a lot of care...Remember....IMO, If Ike slows down, trof has more time to hook it more.

I say anything west of Lake Charles is a long shot right now unless her slows down big time and then the MS.AL. and FL. coast come in play...unlikely IMO.

I believe you mean anything EAST.

[Stormcenter]

That Euro would lead to a nasty surge even in SW LA. Not good news. Most people in LA have already written Ike off but this goes to show we must still watch it. My initial thoughts of Matagorda - Vermilion bay might just pan out. I have a strong feeling we aren't done with these shifts, thoughts anyone else?

Just sort of puts that "sick feeling" in your stomach as you watch. You are right - LA has quit watching so closely. This will have them back at attention I'm sure. We'll see what the next update will bring.

It will be intersting to see what the NHC has to say. I'm sure they disecting everything as I type this. I doubted their LA. landfall for Gustav 4 days out and they proved me wrong so if they say Texas or wherever then I'm buying it.

[Bluefrog]

I know ... I was just playing with you .....

LA = the US Postal Service abbreviation for Louisiana. I have never seen someone talk about Los Angeles on this board. And where is lower Alabama .... j/k neighbors.

Thanks but my post was dripping with sarcasm as I couldnt believe someone would rule out LA with a storm still east of 90w thats why I thought they MUST be speaking of los angeles or lower alabama.

[Stormcenter]

If I am sitting in nola and just west...Lake charles....I would be watching this with a lot of care...Remember....IMO, If Ike slows down, trof has more time to hook it more.

I say anything west of Lake Charles is a long shot right now unless her slows down big time and then the MS.AL. and FL. coast come in play...unlikely IMO.

I believe you mean anything EAST.

Sorry my mistake....too much typing.

[rtd2]

I know ... I was just playing with you .....

LA = the US Postal Service abbreviation for Louisiana. I have never seen someone talk about Los Angeles on this board. And where is lower Alabama .... j/k neighbors.

Thanks but my post was dripping with sarcasm as I couldnt believe someone would rule out LA with a storm still east of 90w thats why I thought they MUST be speaking of los angeles or lower alabama.

I kinda thought so but its hard to know reading this stuff!!!

[sunny]

Your right mattie....Media, from what I hear, has almost sounded the all clear for nola....Can't believe that....

For the chance of stalling...eh, 50/50...Imo the gfs and its kids...gfdl, hwrf...are running this too quickly.

People are relaxing about Ike here, that's for sure.

The National Guard are still here in NOLA - just had coffee with 5 of them. They will be here until Monday unless Ike decides on other plans.....

[jasons2k]

That Euro would lead to a nasty surge even in SW LA. Not good news. Most people in LA have already written Ike off but this goes to show we must still watch it. My initial thoughts of Matagorda - Vermilion bay might just pan out. I have a strong feeling we aren't done with these shifts, thoughts anyone else?

Been saying Corpus to Sabine Pass for two full days now. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

I also think the models will "simma' down now", now that they are catching the trough and turning Ike northward over Texas (instead of barelling west into Mexico). I also expect a very gradual shift over the next few days to the right. The timing here will be critical and could make a big difference in the end.

Sorry Ed, but it looks like a trip to the beer cooler for you.

WRT to Galveston - as Jeff L. said, they will make the call tomorrow. But with the track likely shifting right now, that would put Galveston in a warning when one is issued. So yes, I do expect tomorrow a mandatory evacuation will be issued for Galveston along with contraflow and the whole nine yards.

[marcus B]

Will the models ever stop at one place?

[Stormcenter]

Will the models ever stop at one place?

Who knows?