ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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Houstonia
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3501 Postby Houstonia » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:14 pm

jasons wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:That Euro would lead to a nasty surge even in SW LA. Not good news. Most people in LA have already written Ike off but this goes to show we must still watch it. My initial thoughts of Matagorda - Vermilion bay might just pan out. I have a strong feeling we aren't done with these shifts, thoughts anyone else?


Been saying Corpus to Sabine Pass for two full days now. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

I also think the models will "simma' down now", now that they are catching the trough and turning Ike northward over Texas (instead of barelling west into Mexico). I also expect a very gradual shift over the next few days to the right. The timing here will be critical and could make a big difference in the end.

Sorry Ed, but it looks like a trip to the beer cooler for you.

WRT to Galveston - as Jeff L. said, they will make the call tomorrow. But with the track likely shifting right now, that would put Galveston in a warning when one is issued. So yes, I do expect tomorrow a mandatory evacuation will be issued for Galveston along with contraflow and the whole nine yards.


My nephew is deploying with FEMA from Iowa down here to Texas (imagine: five firefighter/EMT/Paramedic types riding in an ambulance down here from Iowa). The only problem is - they don't yet know where they are going!!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3502 Postby rainman » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:18 pm

I just meant is as from here on out I could see the models trending further and further north. Se TX/SW LA is not out of the woods.
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Re:

#3503 Postby Nederlander » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:18 pm

Steve wrote:>>Do you think the NHC will adjust their track at 5?

What do you think?



They will have to... the 11 a.m. track is now on the extreme southern guidance of the latest models... I would guess just north of Matagorda Bay....

p.s. never pay attention to the landfall line.. always the cone...
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#3504 Postby SaoFeng » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:22 pm

Galveston/Houston still needs to look out.... Ike isn't finished yet... I feel the models will begin to edge north
Last edited by SaoFeng on Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#3505 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:23 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Steve wrote:>>Do you think the NHC will adjust their track at 5?

What do you think?



They will have to... the 11 a.m. track is now on the extreme southern guidance of the latest models... I would guess just north of Matagorda Bay....

p.s. never pay attention to the landfall line.. always the cone...


No way they shift is that far north at the 5pm advisory based on one set of runs. I'm thinking a tad North of Corpus Christi. Now maybe by 11 they will be closer to Matagorda but probably South of there.
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Re:

#3506 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:24 pm

pablolopez26 wrote:Do you think the NHC will adjust their track at 5?


Yes. Probably around Port O'Connor.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3507 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:25 pm

Expect a track change at 4. Question will be how much....

Image
Image
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#3508 Postby gboudx » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:27 pm

DFW NWS is starting to pickup on those recurves up this way by mentioning severe weather Sat-Sun in the form of flash flooding and tornadoes.
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#3509 Postby curtadams » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:27 pm

One bad thing I see in the 12Z HWRF and GFDL is that they have the storm do a right hook just after landfall. With that kind of track a massive evac in Houston will be needed even if the storm is predicted to miss to the south because it will take a relatively small shift to put it into Houston/Galveston.
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Re:

#3510 Postby pablolopez26 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:29 pm

Steve wrote:>>Do you think the NHC will adjust their track at 5?

What do you think?


My non-professional and very uneducated guess sees that the NHC will play it conservative and adjust slightly north of where it is now. Then if the next model runs sees a general northerly consensus then the track will get shifted more at 11pm.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3511 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:29 pm

IHMO...The high will break down tomorrow....Louisiana will once again be the 'eastern outlier'.
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Re: Re:

#3512 Postby Mattie » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:29 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
Steve wrote:>>Do you think the NHC will adjust their track at 5?

What do you think?



They will have to... the 11 a.m. track is now on the extreme southern guidance of the latest models... I would guess just north of Matagorda Bay....

p.s. never pay attention to the landfall line.. always the cone...


No way they shift is that far north at the 5pm advisory based on one set of runs. I'm thinking a tad North of Corpus Christi. Now maybe by 11 they will be closer to Matagorda but probably South of there.


Well, they've moved what, 500 miles? Border of La/TX to Tx/MX border? That happened very very quickly.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3513 Postby gboudx » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:33 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:IHMO...The high will break down tomorrow....Louisiana will once again be the 'eastern outlier'.


What are you basing your opinion on?
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Re:

#3514 Postby marcus B » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:33 pm

Steve wrote:>>Do you think the NHC will adjust their track at 5?

What do you think?


East and north after landfall.
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Re: Re:

#3515 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:33 pm

Mattie wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
No way they shift is that far north at the 5pm advisory based on one set of runs. I'm thinking a tad North of Corpus Christi. Now maybe by 11 they will be closer to Matagorda but probably South of there.


Well, they've moved what, 500 miles? Border of La/TX to Tx/MX border? That happened very very quickly.


Not in one advisory
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3516 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:35 pm

Looking @ the 500mb maps...Bad feeling about all of this. Rita part 'deaux'.

Everyone is very lax here because no orders have been sent out. Jefferson County EMO sent out a PR today stating they would monitor the situation closely but no orders due to NHC path.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3517 Postby mpic » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:35 pm

Would like to know how far away from landfall do storm surges usually reach?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3518 Postby Nederlander » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:37 pm

mpic wrote:Would like to know how far away from landfall do storm surges usually reach?


depends on the area and how high it is above sea level...

The upcoming disco should be very interesting...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3519 Postby jinftl » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:38 pm

How nuts would it be if the models start trendig towards a NE recurve while still over water....if ike slows down more than forecast..or gets very strong and is more influenced by approaching trough....sounds crazy but think of where the consensus was only 24 hours ago....the map below looks quite different..esp with ne turn (inland). North Central Gulf coast...don't totally write impacts from ike off.

Image
Last edited by jinftl on Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3520 Postby Txdivermom » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:39 pm

rainman wrote:This is looking eerily similar to Rita in my opinion. It does have more latitude to gain as Rita came from the East between Florida and Cuba. NHC Forecast for Rita was around corpus with the models shifting North each day.


Yes, and being in Houston, it bothers me even more. This one's far south point was farther south than Rita. :eek:
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