ATL: IKE Discussion

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KWT
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#6521 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:16 pm

Yep sounds good stormcenter though whenever a model follows another models trend but 24hrs behind like the GFS has done wit hthe ECM with Ike its not usually a good sign for that models ideas!

Anyway recon finding nothing at all to support hurricane status, not even close really but thats to be expected given the convection is really lacking in the inner core once again.

Also recon found a central pressure of 968mbs just off the Cuban coast, probably still close to expect strengthening.
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Re: Re:

#6522 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:16 pm

marcus B wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:A Pretty good afternoon discussion from the NWS out of Miami, Fl.

Synopsis...all eyes remain on Hurricane Ike as the rest of the
tropical Atlantic is mercifully quiet for the time being. Ike made
another landfall in Cuba and will finally emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A deep layer ridge exists north of the system from the western North Atlantic across the Gulf states and into the northwestern
Gomex. This ridge will keep Ike well away from the forecast area. The official track forecast for Ike has moved decidedly to the left (or w) over the last 24 hours although a slight adjustment to the right was made with the last advisory once the system approaches Texas. The latest landfall estimate brings Ike ashore near Corpus Christi Texas on the morning of Friday the 13th. The official track splits the difference between the GFS and Euro tracks through about 48 hours and then more closely follows the GFS thereafter.


They must mean Saturday the 13th.


Yeah you are right.... I missed that.
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Re: Re:

#6523 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:17 pm

gboudx wrote:
Sabanic wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:A Pretty good afternoon discussion from the NWS out of Miami, Fl.

Synopsis...all eyes remain on Hurricane Ike as the rest of the
tropical Atlantic is mercifully quiet for the time being. Ike made
another landfall in Cuba and will finally emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A deep layer ridge exists north of the system from the western North Atlantic across the Gulf states and into the northwestern
Gomex. This ridge will keep Ike well away from the forecast area. The official track forecast for Ike has moved decidedly to the left (or w) over the last 24 hours although a slight adjustment to the right was made with the last advisory once the system approaches Texas. The latest landfall estimate brings Ike ashore near Corpus Christi Texas on the morning of Friday the 13th. The official track splits the difference between the GFS and Euro tracks through about 48 hours and then more closely follows the GFS thereafter.


It would be fairly accurate if Friday was the 13th


If it was, then someone could photoshop the head of Jason onto Ike. You know, for the cinematic effect.



:lol:
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#6524 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:20 pm

I wonder how long it will be until the convection beefs up in the inner core, until it does expect rather weak winds despite having a central pressure closer to cat-2 strength...

Also I wonder just how far north the NHC are prepared to take the track forecast in the next advisory and whether they downgrade Ike?
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Re: Re:

#6525 Postby ELF62 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:21 pm

It would be fairly accurate if Friday was the 13th[/quote]

If it was, then someone could photoshop the head of Jason onto Ike. You know, for the cinematic effect.[/quote]

You aged yourself with that one!! :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6526 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:21 pm

Sand Key near Key West. It's at 45 meters in height but still sustained at 55 kts!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=sanf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=4&time_label=EDT
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6527 Postby rtd2 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:24 pm

ronjon wrote:Sand Key near Key West. It's at 45 meters in height but still sustained at 55 kts!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=sanf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=4&time_label=EDT




IKE spit out alot of its core inland and we are seeing the results of it with strong winds hundreds of miles away.
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#6528 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:25 pm

Impressive ronjon!

The good news is there is a NOAA mission tonight into Ike which is going to sample the region around it and hopefully the G-IV data will be injested into the data by 0z runs but if not by the 06z model runs...

Once that happens we can be a lot more confident about the NHC track and the models should come into better agreement.
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#6529 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:25 pm

This is the just released afternoon NWS discussion out of New Orleans, LA. I'm sure they talked to the NHC before they posted this so it should be pretty updated.


NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HURRICANE IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH. ON THIS TRACK...IKE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THOUGH IKE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WE WILL STILL SEE INCREASED POPS AND GUSTIER WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND WILL REVISIT THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TOMORROW.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6530 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:25 pm

looks like Ike may be slowing and a wobble to the NW is seen on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Is he feeling the weakness already?
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Re:

#6531 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:27 pm

Stormcenter wrote:A Pretty good afternoon discussion from the NWS out of Miami, Fl.

Synopsis...all eyes remain on Hurricane Ike as the rest of the
tropical Atlantic is mercifully quiet for the time being. Ike made
another landfall in Cuba and will finally emerge into the southeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A deep layer ridge exists north of the system from the western North Atlantic across the Gulf states and into the northwestern
Gomex. This ridge will keep Ike well away from the forecast area. The official track forecast for Ike has moved decidedly to the left (or w) over the last 24 hours although a slight adjustment to the right was made with the last advisory once the system approaches Texas. The latest landfall estimate brings Ike ashore near Corpus Christi Texas on the morning of Friday the 13th. The official track splits the difference between the GFS and Euro tracks through about 48 hours and then more closely follows the GFS thereafter.


Stormcenter, being that you are in Houston, I bet you are going to feel some effects of this storm, even if it does hit as far south as Corpus...Man, remember when we were talking about how small IKE was in the Atlantic, and now look at it, wow!....I would think you'll be feeling some tropical storm winds anyway...I wonder if the models are done shifting? Perhaps now it's just a matter of them fine tuning the landfall location.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6532 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:28 pm

rtd2 wrote:
IKE spit out alot of its core inland and we are seeing the results of it with strong winds hundreds of miles away.



Note though that Ike's central pressure is still around 968mbs, only increased by about 3-5mbs and given the very good structure as soon as the inner core tightens and gets some decent convection over it, no reason why the winds won't very rapidly increase in response
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6533 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:29 pm

Yep. I am in Humble and I know I will get something, even if it does hit Corpus Christi.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6534 Postby rtd2 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:looks like Ike may be slowing and a wobble to the NW is seen on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Is he feeling the weakness already?




was about to ? the speed not sure on motion...You have ALOT more post than me but be prepared :D looks slower though for sure
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6535 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:looks like Ike may be slowing and a wobble to the NW is seen on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Is he feeling the weakness already?


Motion still appears to me to be around 285 right now looking at the high resolution sat imagery.
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#6536 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:31 pm

8 1/2 hour movement per vdm from recon, .5N and 1.2 W, now ts Ike, but dont expect a downgrade imo.
Last edited by dwg71 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6537 Postby rtd2 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:31 pm

KWT wrote:
rtd2 wrote:
IKE spit out alot of its core inland and we are seeing the results of it with strong winds hundreds of miles away.



Note though that Ike's central pressure is still around 968mbs, only increased by about 3-5mbs and given the very good structure as soon as the inner core tightens and gets some decent convection over it, no reason why the winds won't very rapidly increase in response





no doubt it can wrap and vertically stack...if and when it does then you will have a LARGE storm with a LARGE wind field
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6538 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:31 pm

Look for a track shift to Matagorda Bay shortly.
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#6539 Postby mattpetre » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:33 pm

I'm in Missouri City and considering boarding up tonight. Anyone have any thoughts or advice on this? I don't live in a neighborhood with any trees (at least not more than 15ft high), but I worry about lawn furniture and such. How necessary is it? And will it hurt me still if I board up but none of my neighbors do? (i.e. Their roof winds up on my house kind of thing.) This is one of those neighborhoods where I can almost touch the neighbors house when I open the window. Any experienced advice is appreciated. I'm feeling lIKE IKE is headed close enough to Houston that we will feel some pretty strong effects.
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#6540 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:33 pm

From radar.....Looks to be near 305 at around 11mph....
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