ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[terrapintransit]

[quote="jinftl"]How nuts would it be if the models start trendig towards a NE recurve while still over water....if ike slows down more than forecast..or gets very strong and is more influenced by approaching trough....sounds crazy but think of where the consensus was only 24 hours ago....the map below looks quite different..esp with ne turn (inland).

[/quote

Wonder if this is a trend that might work it's way to Ike's Landfall path??

[N2Storms]

[quote="jinftl"]How nuts would it be if the models start trendig towards a NE recurve while still over water....if ike slows down more than forecast..or gets very strong and is more influenced by approaching trough....sounds crazy but think of where the consensus was only 24 hours ago....the map below looks quite different..esp with ne turn (inland). North Central Gulf coast...don't totally write impacts from ike off.

[img]http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif[/img][/quote]


in that case it would look roughly like it did last Friday and Saturday morning but we all know that isn't going to happen though...

[mpic]

Would like to know how far away from landfall do storm surges usually reach?

depends on the area and how high it is above sea level...

The upcoming disco should be very interesting...

Actually, that was a vague question I posed. What I mean is not how far inland from landfall, but how far....I'm too tired. If landfall is Port O'conner, will Galveston have surge...that kind of distance.

[jinftl]

The ne curve in almost all tracks after landfall is climatologically what you would start to expect...a trough coming down and curving a storm north of the western gulf. but ike may not have read up on climatology so ???

How nuts would it be if the models start trendig towards a NE recurve while still over water....if ike slows down more than forecast..or gets very strong and is more influenced by approaching trough....sounds crazy but think of where the consensus was only 24 hours ago....the map below looks quite different..esp with ne turn (inland).

[/quote

Wonder if this is a trend that might work it's way to Ike's Landfall path??

[bigGbear]

Would like to know how far away from landfall do storm surges usually reach?

depends on the area and how high it is above sea level...

The upcoming disco should be very interesting...

Actually, that was a vague question I posed. What I mean is not how far inland from landfall, but how far....I'm too tired. If landfall is Port O'conner, will Galveston have surge...that kind of distance.

_____
In a Carla-style storm - yes Galveston would have a significant storm surge

[mpic]

Would like to know how far away from landfall do storm surges usually reach?

Actually, that was a vague question I posed. What I mean is not how far inland from landfall, but how far....I'm too tired. If landfall is Port O'conner, will Galveston have surge...that kind of distance. [/quote]

_____
In a Carla-style storm - yes Galveston would have a significant storm surge[/quote]

Thanks...that's what I was asking about.

[PTrackerLA]

IMO, the NHC needs to put at least SW LA back into the cone provided they shift the track to Matagorda bay. Just so the residents and emergency officials take note and plan accordingly. I'm mostly concerned about the surge on our fragile SW coast which was destroyed by Rita.

[Nederlander]

IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

[bigGbear]

Either they need to put in more points or learn to draw a smooth curve.
This resembles a square dance step.

[PTrackerLA]

That is one jacked up 5 day forecast! Oh this is going to be interesting, all those along Texas coast and SW LA need to stay tuned. Can't wait to see the 18z GFS.

[Houstonia]

Either they need to put in more points or learn to draw a smooth curve.
This resembles a square dance step.

Wow... I'm just amazed that they kept Houston out of the three-day cone...

[Nederlander]

well IMO, the three day cone is jacked up because it doesnt show any sign of a curve.. its like it doesnt account for it... im getting dizzy

[pablolopez26]

well IMO, the three day cone is jacked up because it doesnt show any sign of a curve.. its like it doesnt account for it... im getting dizzy

Your getting dizzy and im getting a headache. LOL

[Ed Mahmoud]

IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

I think Ike makes landfall in the cone. The extreme Eastern part of the cone. Vermillion/Cameron parish line.

Just a feeling, based partly on models trending Ike toward a recurve and out of Texas.

[Stormcenter]

IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

I think Ike makes landfall in the cone. The extreme Eastern part of the cone. Vermillion/Cameron parish line.

Just a feeling, based partly on models trending Ike toward a recurve and out of Texas.

Keep on hanging on Ed.

[mattpetre]

IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

I think Ike makes landfall in the cone. The extreme Eastern part of the cone. Vermillion/Cameron parish line.

Just a feeling, based partly on models trending Ike toward a recurve and out of Texas.

You very well may be right Ed, but if so I do officially say that IKE will be a TX storm in a sense. If it takes that path the evacs and disruptions will then be almost identical to Rita (well let's hope they don't get elderly or sick stuck on the highways again... ugh.) My guess is around Freeport at this point.

[rtd2]

IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

I think Ike makes landfall in the cone. The extreme Eastern part of the cone. Vermillion/Cameron parish line.

Just a feeling, based partly on models trending Ike toward a recurve and out of Texas.

right turn CLYDE

[vaffie]

IMO, the NHC needs to put at least SW LA back into the cone provided they shift the track to Matagorda bay. Just so the residents and emergency officials take note and plan accordingly. I'm mostly concerned about the surge on our fragile SW coast which was destroyed by Rita.

Not sure what you mean.... SW LA is in the cone--in the 4 day cone--because if it hit SW LA, it would take a few hours longer to reach it.

[ROCK]

IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

I think Ike makes landfall in the cone. The extreme Eastern part of the cone. Vermillion/Cameron parish line.

Just a feeling, based partly on models trending Ike toward a recurve and out of Texas.

For the love of god Ed, concede all ready... .....you are grasping at straws bro and you have been ALL over the GOM with your predictions........time admit the your thread was premature.......we all forgive you....

[txag2005]

Sorry if I'm behind, but when was the last EURO run? Has there been one since the 1 PM/2 PM shift this afternoon?

Also, isn't there a GFS run set to go around now?

I'm curious to see what shifts if any occur during this next set of runs.