ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[AL Chili Pepper]

The three day finger will soon be somewhere on the TX coast, which is where I tend to pucker up, but I'm still thinking it moves up the coast a little more. The NHC mentioned that most of the dynamical models are showing the bend before the one depicted in the official forecast. The good thing though is that if the trough is deep enough and strong enough, shear and some dry air entrainment could occur.

[Portastorm]

Come home Ed ... all will be forgiven!

You'll have plenty of chances to be right when we start bandying about Arctic airmasses and 540 thickness lines over Harris County.

[ROCK]

Yeah that EURO run was something else.....sure didnt see that coming..

Now we wait for the others to come in line.......all about timing at this point.....

[vaffie]

I wish I had Ed's conviction that this wasn't coming to Houston--never--ever--ever. Alas.

[txag2005]

What was the latest EURO run? When did it run and where did it hit land at? I've been away for most of the afternoon so I'm behind right now.

[dwg71]

I belive around central texas coast.

[ROCK]

What was the latest EURO run? When did it run and where did it hit land at? I've been away for most of the afternoon so I'm behind right now.

matagorda...ran at 2pm next run 2am...

[wxman22]

What was the latest EURO run? When did it run and where did it hit land at? I've been away for most of the afternoon so I'm behind right now.

The Euro landed at about matagorda Bay...

[txag2005]

So the EURO is runs every 12 hours?

[Steve]

>>What was the latest EURO run? When did it run and where did it hit land at? I've been away for most of the afternoon so I'm behind right now.

That was only a couple of pages ago. You could have scrolled through - err, that's what I would have done.
----------------------------------
Ed,

Though I'll drink one from time to time, I think Shiner Blonde kicks Shiner Bock's ***. Unfortunatley, no one seems to carry it at bars in Texas. You get the bock on tap or in bottles. I want the blonde.

Steve

[Steve]

>>So the EURO is runs every 12 hours?

Yeah. You can view it at the PSU site (google = PSU+Experimental Tropical), or you can view it at the Unisys model site, or you can view it at Raleigh Weather, or you can view it at the actual site (google=ECMWF+North America), or you can catch it at any number of university websites that carry their runs.

Steve

[Houstonia]

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=HGX&StateCode=TX&SafeCityName=Houston

from the 335 pm Hou/Gal discussion:

Marine...
todays models (both global and hurricane) are quite concerning as
they are currently coming more in line with last nights and todays
more northward European model (ecmwf) forecast. Kudos to the midnight marine fcster that
already had the forecast trended that way. Models can and probably will
change for the next several days as conditions evolve. Currently
there appears to be 2 critical time periods between now and landfall
that will determine the eventual track. First, when/where/if the
more leftward jaunt in the cntl Gulf occurs. Second, when/if Ike
starts feeling the affects of the upper trough coming in from the
west. Looking more and more likely there could be a sharp northward
turn as the storm moves into the Texas coastal waters and feels the
trough. But where? Will continue to give some heavy weight to the
European model (ecmwf) with the extended portions of the forecast. But...as always in
these situations...there will be run-to-run model changes - some
of which could be large swings. That's why The Cone of uncertainty
is important.

Based on the current expected track...still looks like higher period
swells start arriving Wednesday night and increase in size with time. In
addition...with the expected increase in east/NE winds water levels
will be on their way up and a coastal Flood Watch is looking like a
good bet - possibly needing to issue one as early as Wednesday afternoon.
Astronomical high tides will be running 2.4 feet at the beaches
during the second part of the week and it won't take much for US to
hit the important 4.0-4.5ft mark needed for problems. 47

[dwg71]

Comparing GFS through 48 hours on this run vs 54 hours on the previous run and this run is further south at this point.

[Wx_Warrior]

66h

[txag2005]

possible southern shift for the GFS?

[dwg71]

66 hours is slightly south and west of 72 hour 06Z GFS Run.

72 hour frame will determine when the curve starts.

[micktooth]

Looks close to CC to me

[dwg71]

78 Hour landfall, between corpus and Brownsville.

[vaffie]

GFS has hardly any new data in it. You have to wait for the 0Z run at 11 pm to see if there's been a true track shift.

[Wx_Warrior]

78h