ATL: IKE Discussion

[Txdivermom]

Question for you Houstonians...if you guys stay on the East side of Ike and take a significant storm surge...would downtown Houston look like New Orleans post Katrina or is Houston much more above sea leve?

The city of Houston is about 50 feet above sea level. With some points up to 90 ft. But much of Houston is also flat, thus making us very floodprone.

Can downtown Houston flood? Id say sure. But so can the Med Center amongst other crucial locations in Houston.

And there are many other locations all over town that are near bayous and creeks that are very prone to flash flooding. Those places would certainly be underwater for a period of time. Of course, as the tides go out, that would drain and it wouldn't be storm surge, but rising water instead. But there would be quite a lot of that.

[gboudx]

Question for you Houstonians...if you guys stay on the East side of Ike and take a significant storm surge...would downtown Houston look like New Orleans post Katrina or is Houston much more above sea leve?

Gee, I never really thought I'd see another Katrina type disaster play out in my lifetime and I pray that it doesn't but looking at everything right now, the way it is setting up, it really looks like a potential disaster in the making. I certainly apologize if I come off as sounding too "doomsdayish" but I truly am concerned for you folks up that way.

I highly doubt you'd see a Katrina-type disaster. Houston is not in a bowl like New Orleans is. And probably too far away from any surge.

No, it's not a bowl, but water can certainly back up. Remember these photos? If you don't know, that's I-10, through the middle of Houston, totally underwater and other various Allison photos.

The OP's question was about storm surge. Not a tropical storm sitting over the same area for days dumping torrential rainfall.

[RBDnhm]

I may be somewhat cynical, but that right hand turn in the five day NHC cone/line seems like the most political weather forecast I have ever seen. I hope someone can provide a right hand turn just after landfall five day cone for some previous storm. Otherwise, I am going to believe the NHC drew it that way to avoid pointing the cone right at Houston and also having to show Rita-steps to the right.

[jinftl]

The NHC lists the cumulative probability of locations experiencing 34kt, 50kt, and 64kt winds for each forecast advisory update. It tells you an area's risk threat and also can reflect changes in forecast track thinking when you compare one location's risk to anothers over time.

The data below for the cities shows the 11am tuesday probability (1st % listed) and the current 5pm tueday update probability (2nd % listed and bolded):

New Orleans
34kt 24%-27%
50kt 6%-7%
64kt 2%-2%

Port Arthur
34kt 33%-37%
50kt 11%-12%
64kt 5%-6%

Galveston
34kt 41%-44%
50kt 18%-20%
64kt 8%-9%

Houston
34kt 36%-39%
50kt 13%-14%
64kt 5%-5%

Corpus Christi
34kt 44%-42%
50kt 20%-19%
64kt 9%-8%

[mpic]

Just on Channel 13...Galveston is not calling an evac at this time, but watching closely especially for the west end because of tides.

[Bunkertor]

Big Ike!

Wow, looks alive and well.

I can imagine you standing in the yard and screaming towards hurricanes :" Not in my house !!! "

[Texas Snowman]

Sobering words from Jeff Masters this afternoon...

There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

[fasterdisaster]

Our little baby is all grown up.

[BigA]

The passage over land certainly enlarged Ike, which will make strengthening slower, but may result in a bigger storm surge when the storm finally gets to the coast.

As evidence of its size, Key West is getting wind gusts to 52 right now. (per weather.com)

[Texas Snowman]

If you are interested in storm surge issues in Galveston, Houston, and the Bolivar Peninsula, take a look at the graphics with the Houston Chronicle's SciGuy blogger Eric Berger.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy

Then scroll down just a little ways to the graphics under the heading "Would a category 3 hurricane surge flood your home?"

[mpic]

That puts me within the 100 miles if Matagorda Bay gets hit. Too much chance to take for me.

About the evac deaths that was mentioned before. There were a lot of heat stroke victims in the Rita evac.

[pablolopez26]

key West Wind conditions.

Wind: 31 mph / 50 km/h / 13.9 m/s from the ESE
Wind Gust: 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s

[Txdivermom]

The photos of Houston during Allison are not possible with at storm moving through as Ike is predicted. That was a weeks worth of tropical storm rains. Not relevant here.

http://a.abcnews.com/images/US/ap_allison_070601_ssh.jpg

Although rain fell for about 5 days, most of it was concentrated within a 24 hour period on Friday and Saturday (or maybe Thur/Fri.). There were a couple of days before the main onslought of rain with sunshine and no flooding. I think a storm surge could cause the same kind of back up in the drain that all the water draining from north of us did. I won't say it's not possible or relevant because of the way our drainage works.

[KWT]

The thing is it all depends on how tight the inner eyewall is, it can have a large region of winds but a tight inner eyewall and still wind up pretty quickly.

The fact some people are already mentioning this in the same vain as Rita and Carla should show the possible seriousness of the situation that is unfolding.

Right now early days in the game in terms of journey across the gulf...but the eyewall is showing real signs of starting to strengthen again and I think give it another 6-12hrs and Ike will relaly start to strengthen. Till then its all about building its structure up.

[dhweather]

Well, here's the trough digging into the pacific northwest that will ultimately snatch Ike up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-wv.html

[HurricaneRobert]

So for Houston, the worst-case scenario is a category 4 landfalling in Freeport?

A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant, where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20 feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris County. The surge also would block the natural drainage of flooded inland bayous and streams for a day or more.

Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee would have no hope of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around their homes. Very likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would die.

Link

[jinftl]

Fort Lauderdale has seen ts gusts today....350 miles or so from the center of Ike! How is that for an idea of storm's circulation and fetch!

from NWS Miami
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF MIAMI-
DADE, BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN FRINGES OF HURRICANE IKE AFFECT THE AREA. WIND
GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCED ALONG AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AND BEACHFRONT AREAS.

key West Wind conditions.

Wind: 31 mph / 50 km/h / 13.9 m/s from the ESE
Wind Gust: 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s

[KWT]

jinftl, yep there certainly have been some pretty decent winds across the keys and south Florida.

Also looking at recon it seems Ike has a pretty large region of moderate TS winds (40-50kts) but depsite that the eye still looks pretty small at the moment.

The next 12hrs are going to be interesting, the 36hrs after it will prehaps be very worrying to watch for those in Texas.

[pablolopez26]

Fort Lauderdale has seen ts gusts today....350 miles or so from the center of Ike! How is that for an idea of storm's circulation and fetch!

Not very soothing. This week is going to be fun.

[jinftl]

That large windfield is concerning not only for Texas but LA as well....Ike is going to be pushing alot of water with him. If the windfield expands and the strength expands, that could have huge surge implications well east of the center.

jinftl, yep there certainly have been some pretty decent winds across the keys and south Florida.

Also looking at recon it seems Ike has a pretty large region of moderate TS winds (40-50kts) but depsite that the eye still looks pretty small at the moment.

The next 12hrs are going to be interesting, the 36hrs after it will prehaps be very worrying to watch for those in Texas.