ATL: IKE Discussion

[dhweather]

Perhaps Ray Nagin was just off a couple of storms.

[fasterdisaster]

The passage over land certainly enlarged Ike, which will make strengthening slower, but may result in a bigger storm surge when the storm finally gets to the coast.

As evidence of its size, Key West is getting wind gusts to 52 right now. (per weather.com)

Let's not forget it will also make weakening slower.

[Shoshana]

I may be somewhat cynical, but that right hand turn in the five day NHC cone/line seems like the most political weather forecast I have ever seen. I hope someone can provide a right hand turn just after landfall five day cone for some previous storm. Otherwise, I am going to believe the NHC drew it that way to avoid pointing the cone right at Houston and also having to show Rita-steps to the right.

Ummm... Carla?

[6SpeedTA95]

Models have come a bit back to the north compared with runs early this morning. The landfall for this storm is still a huge question mark.

[gboudx]

I like how Carla side-stepped the Yucatan peninsula. Nice.

[Aristotle]

Well, here's the trough digging into the pacific northwest that will ultimately snatch Ike up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-wv.html

Wow is that thing already touching Texas. That thing is huge!!!!!!!!!!

[Dean4Storms]

This sure looks like a Texas problem right now but I wouldn't right off a stronger and sooner right hook than the models currently advertise threatening LA or even as far east as Alabama. The timing of this fronts arrival and the true speed of Ike across the Gulf will be the major player as to whether this storm hits Texas or ends up further east. Everyone from Texas eastward to Alabama need to stay up to date on this storm.


Not an official forecast, make all your decision regarding life and property from official sources.

[PTrackerLA]

Ike could be the largest storm I've seen enter the gulf that I can remember. I'm afraid it's going to be a MONSTER with far reaching effects. Makes me sick knowing he now has three days over the GOM.

[dhweather]

This should give everyone a reminder of how far technology has come - Hurricane Carla on radar

[6SpeedTA95]

This should give everyone a reminder of how far technology has come - Hurricane Carla on radar

[wxman57]

I may be somewhat cynical, but that right hand turn in the five day NHC cone/line seems like the most political weather forecast I have ever seen. I hope someone can provide a right hand turn just after landfall five day cone for some previous storm. Otherwise, I am going to believe the NHC drew it that way to avoid pointing the cone right at Houston and also having to show Rita-steps to the right.

They appear to be hedging their forecast. They indicate a northwest turn but only a partial turn. With the trof to the west, if Ike moves inland into Texas on their path it should accelerate northward then NNE into Oklahoma by Sunday. Unfortunately, we're in fair agreement at work that a landfall is more likely in Matagorda, maybe even north of there. That would mean 45-60 mph winds and higher gusts in Houston and days without power.

It's strange - Ike's on almost the same timetable as Rita was in 2005 - striking early on a Saturday morning. By this time for Rita, the evacuations had started and you could hardly find any food or gas or supplies. Going to be an interesting next few days around here.

[BigB0882]

I know its been said many times but this reeks of Rita. For my family's sake, I hope it doesn't pull a Rita into southeast Texas!

[MHurricanes]

It's not Gilbert, but, heaven forbid, if it becomes one.

- MHurricanes

[Texas Snowman]

This week will not be fun - at least for those on the Texas coast.

I have said all along that I thought Ike would make landfall SW of Galveston at a Cat 3/borderline 4 status. Unfortunately, that idea appears to have plenty of merit at the moment.

[dhweather]

It's not Gilbert, but, heaven forbid, if it becomes one.

- MHurricanes

Gilbert - Mr. I am going where I want to, throw your books away.

[KWT]

wxman57, I think once this system bombs, like I suspect it may do given just how tight the inner core is yet again, people will be paying attention again and we may see a mad rush out of the towns again.

Eyewall really powering up now as well, I think Ike may really ramp up in about another 6-9hrs time and when it does things are gonig to get mighty busy in here I suspect!

[Winsurfer]

I know its been said many times but this reeks of Rita. For my family's sake, I hope it doesn't pull a Rita into southeast Texas!

Me Too!! I'm not really wanting to evacuate two weekends in a row.

[otowntiger]

It would be quite rare for that to happen, although I guess one certainly could argue that the track of this thing is quite rare. I don't see this storm strengthening that much. It may become a major before landfall, but my gut tells me it is not going to do it. In my opinion, I don't think Austin will see 90 mph winds from this. A lot of things would have to come together for that to happen making the odds very much against it. It would have to strengthen remarkably, it would have to track just right, it would have to be going pretty fast (so as not to deteriorate as quickly) for that kind of an event to ocurr. Not saying its impossible but certainly improbable. By the way those exact conditions did occur in Baton Rouge during Gustav, sustained winds in the 60's and 91 mph gusts, but that hadn't happened since Betsty in '65 and BR is at least 100 miles closer to the gulf than Austin.[/quote]

Lol! I guess recent examples and the fact that this has been an abnormal year don't have any bearing on that happening. I'm no pro but at this point I would error on the side of over estimating as opposed to underestimating.

Btw the atmospheric conditions are beneficial to the development of a major. The northern turn (that happens just before landfall) will make the hurricane increase speed as it rounds the corner, and its gonna take 3 days over the loop current and then 82 degree water. Hmmm, nope your prolly right this is prolly a tropical storm at Galveston and a TD at Austin.

Guts are one thing but base your estimates on some of the facts.

[/quote]

Sometimes guts is all you have when prediciting the future, esp. when it comes to intensity forecasts for hurricanes. The NHC is very public about its inability to forecast intensity. All they can do is look at what is happening now and how that may affect a storm downstream a few days later. They did mention something about shear in the Gulf late in the forecast period so even if you want to go with facts, there you go. Also what I mentioned about Baton Rouge was quite factual, and there's no arguing the fact that LA has certainly had its share of storms to affect it and knowing that and understanding that the last time they got winds of hurricane force in Baton Rouge was over 40 years ago (before Gustav) and the fact that they are much closer to the gulf than Austin makes my presumption of Austin not getting getting winds over td/ts pretty viable. How about those facts?

[Sean in New Orleans]

We'll see....I think it will hit around Galveston. It's hard to tell, now, but, I'm thinking the ridge will weaken and it will begin a decent turn N/NW when it is S. of Louisiana--not Texas. We'll all watch and see. If I was in Texas I would be deep into plans and thoughts about an evacuation. This could easily be a Cat. 4 when it strikes land.

[jacindc]

Is there anyone on here from Galveston? There's so much talk in the past few pages about the impacts on Houston (which I understand, since it's one of the country's largest cities). Would there be mandatory evaucations in Galveston? What sort of storm surge would it get hit with if a Cat 4 hits at Matagorda Bay or slightly north?