Where is she going?

[chadtm80]

Where is Erika going?

Florida
Georgia
Carolinas
Northeast
Gulf Coast
Fish
She won't even make it to "Erika

[Andrew92]

I say Gulf Coast but.....

Florida isn't mentioned and you said that was supposed to be in the poll!

-Andrew92

[chadtm80]

Thanks Andrew... Its added now!

[Tommedic]

Would like to add that a lot depends on how she passes by PR, North ,, South,, or over.

[Colin]

I think it's another Gulf Coast hitter... :o

[JetMaxx]

It's looking like this system is going to impact Hispanola in some manner...and we all know those 10,000' foot mountains can destroy a hurricane's circulation...if Erika crosses them as David and Georges did.

The question becomes how strong will "Erika" become before striking Hispanola, and how much does she weaken near/ over the island...my guess is a hurricane...and possibly a significant one before striking Hispanola (100+ mph)

My instinct and July hurricane climatology tell me Erika will continue WNW across or just south of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas/ NE Mexico....but models indicate that is a pretty substantial trough coming to this neck of the woods by late week (lows of 64° forecast here on Thursday/ Friday A.M.)..

I won't be surprised to see Erika (or what is left of her) end up somewhere
near or over Florida....maybe as a tropical storm or weak hurricane.

[wxman57]

I think it's a toss-up between Florida and fish storm (Bahamas and out to sea). All indications are that should TD6 become Erika and reach hurricane strength that there will be a wide-open "hole" to its north around PR/DR. I think Erika could track across the Bahamas, go north then north-northeast and miss the east coast. Florida/Carolinas would be my second pick, then eastern Gulf, then central Gulf, then west Gulf. To get to the western Gulf I think that Erika would have to remain very weak (perhaps a TD) in order to not get picked up and driven north.

[cycloneye]

I say that Erika after brushing Puerto Rico and moving thru the mona channel she will turn north influenced by the trough and be a fish not affecting the east coast nor the Bahamas but this is only a guess because it remains to be seen how much that trough will influence the track of Erika .

[Tip]

I have a feeling the the ultimate direction of Erika will be tougher to predict than just saying the predominate east coast trough will pick it up north and then send it out to sea. Latest GFS shows the trough filling in later this week before a new and more powerful trough takes over later. If Erika is in the so-called box when the trough lifts for awhile, I'm not sure where she would go.

Trough in place Wednesday - http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/mrf ... _conus.gif

Trough filled in Saturday http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/mrf ... _conus.gif

Trough reamplifying the following Tuesday http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/mrf ... _conus.gif

[mf_dolphin]

I'm betting that Erika slide south of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. I'm calling for a Florida Big Bend landfall.

[Toni - 574]

I'm betting that Erika slide south of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. I'm calling for a Florida Big Bend landfall.

Oh Marshal don't say that, that is just way too close! Can't make up my mind yet but am leaning toward a East coast or GOM storm. Have to see a few more model runs and where the trough will be. :?

[mf_dolphin]

If it passes south of Hispanola then the entir GOM is open IMO. The timing and depth of the trough will be real important as far as the future track unfolds. One thing for sure, it's going to be an interesting week

[OtherHD]

I'm glad I waited until now to answer this poll! I don't think it'll make it to Erika.

[mf_dolphin]

I don't see any reason why it won't make it to Erika. The SST's in front of it are good and a low shear environment as well. the circulation still looks good on the early visibles this morning. If it misses the high mountains of Hispanola I see no reason for it not to make cane status at least.

[ColdFront77]

The conditions for development remain the same as yesterday for development of Tropical Depression 6 into a Tropical Storm and potentially a Hurricane later this week.

This storm has a pretty good chance at this point to affect people in the islands to possible the United States in the next several days.

Indeed, it will be an interesting week ahead.

[therock1811]

Florida, south of Melbourne...

[Rainband]

I think it's a toss-up between Florida and fish storm (Bahamas and out to sea). All indications are that should TD6 become Erika and reach hurricane strength that there will be a wide-open "hole" to its north around PR/DR. I think Erika could track across the Bahamas, go north then north-northeast and miss the east coast. Florida/Carolinas would be my second pick, then eastern Gulf, then central Gulf, then west Gulf. To get to the western Gulf I think that Erika would have to remain very weak (perhaps a TD) in order to not get picked up and driven north.

Don't strong systems get driven poleward?? ie NORTH! Not weak ones..

[Rainband]

Oh lol I say florida Big bend with MF!!!

[OtherHD]

Don't strong systems get driven poleward?? ie NORTH! Not weak ones..

Uh thats basically what he's saying. Re-read his post.

[Guest]

Personally as seen by my map below i like A or B......................Either way with her becoming strong or the expected trough i do expect her to make a turn for the north.........BTW C is not out of the question either especially if she develops rapidly.................Two worst case possibilities imo are the best possibilities (right now) and that would be a track with alot of damage in the Carrib islands and the other which is my A/B pick which by far is the worst case because then it develops into a power house and hits FL westside possible affecting alot of the SE with lots of heavy rains which is not needed at all and or could ride the SE coast doing the same but holding onto its strength somwhat doing added coastal damage along the SE coast up to Hatteras...................Alot depends on Strength and the trough on the eastcoast for where she ends up going.......................Either way she is something to watch and pay attention to..............