ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Air Force Met]

Ok AFM...I asked a question earlier..maybe you can answer also...OK..when I see the 78 hr map..doesnt it look like the high is moved more east..that there is no more high as far east as central LA? To me it does...so why would that bring Ike into south Texas...wouldnt that pull him even more north?

Also what are your thoughts to eventual landfall?

On the 18z...the 500mb high is actually a little further NW. Moves from SW GA to CNTL AL.

[Derek Ortt]

This run is more close the previous four that had south texas landfall.. Not a great recurve yet through 90 hours.

its the 18Z GFS... which as we know is not the best of runs as it has the least synoptic data (along with the 6Z)

[HouTXmetro]

Actually that is a Big shift back south. The last run was wll north, almost near Matagorda.

No its not that big of a shift. You might want to look at something that is a little higher resolution. You also need to NOT look at the vort max...since the vort max isn't the center (no vorticity near the center).

12Z run brings it in near Rockport at 00z.

The 18z run brings it in near CRP at 06z. So...its slower and about 50 miles to the south.

It also initializes wrong. At 6 hrs...it has the center on the western tip of Cuba...near 22.5/84.5 moving west. Now...Ike might make a 60 mile jog to the SW over the next hour...but somehow I doubt it.

And above all that...its the GFS for cryin out loud. Take it with a grain of salt fo now. Its track record with Ike...even over the last 48 hrs...is HORRIBLE.

Thanks for the clarification. I really don't know how to read those maps.

[Air Force Met]

This run is more close the previous four that had south texas landfall.. Not a great recurve yet through 90 hours.

its the 18Z GFS... which as we know is not the best of runs as it has the least synoptic data (along with the 6Z)

I'm giving up. People aren't listening. They are going like dust in the wind with every little move in a model...even one that is HORRIBLE right now and is going to be off by 60 miles SE at 6 hrs out.

I give up.

[HCSD]

AFM, Please do not give up on this forum. The majority are listening. I appreciate the pro mets.

[deltadog03]

I agree AFM....Come DWG...Just listen for once please??? Just wait for the GFS to bust on movement over the next 6-12 hours....

[Johnny]

Hey AFM, don't leave brother....I'm folllowing what your saying.

[Stratosphere747]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.7 83.4 295./ 9.9
6 23.0 84.3 289./ 8.7
12 23.4 84.9 303./ 7.2
18 24.1 85.7 313./ 9.3
24 24.6 86.3 311./ 8.5
30 25.0 87.1 295./ 8.0
36 25.3 88.1 286./ 8.8
42 25.6 89.1 285./ 9.4
48 25.7 90.2 278./10.1
54 25.9 91.3 279./10.3
60 26.1 92.6 281./11.6
66 26.5 93.8 288./12.2
72 27.0 95.1 288./12.3
78 27.5 96.4 292./12.5
84 28.0 97.4 298./ 9.8
90 28.7 98.1 315./ 9.8
96 29.7 98.7 328./10.8
102 30.9 98.8 357./12.1
108 32.2 98.8 0./13.0
114 33.7 98.4 13./15.5
120 34.9 97.0 50./16.6
126 35.9 94.9 65./19.6

[HouTXmetro]

This run is more close the previous four that had south texas landfall.. Not a great recurve yet through 90 hours.

its the 18Z GFS... which as we know is not the best of runs as it has the least synoptic data (along with the 6Z)

I'm giving up. People aren't listening. They are going like dust in the wind with every little move in a model...even one that is HORRIBLE right now and is going to be off by 60 miles SE at 6 hrs out.

I give up.

LOL, calm down AFM. Don't let us peons get to you. We're learning.

[deltadog03]

GFDL looks to be about the same...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a Cat 3

[perk]

This run is more close the previous four that had south texas landfall.. Not a great recurve yet through 90 hours.

its the 18Z GFS... which as we know is not the best of runs as it has the least synoptic data (along with the 6Z)

I'm giving up. People aren't listening. They are going like dust in the wind with every little move in a model...even one that is HORRIBLE right now and is going to be off by 60 miles SE at 6 hrs out.
I give up.

AFM i really wish you would'nt give up. (I UNDERSTAND YOUR FRUSTRATION) there are too many posters on this board that think they're pro-mets, but as a Fort Bend county resident that may be affected by Ike i as well as others depend on your expertise. Therefore i ask you to please re consider your exit.

[teal61]

I'm giving up. People aren't listening. They are going like dust in the wind with every little move in a model...even one that is HORRIBLE right now and is going to be off by 60 miles SE at 6 hrs out.
I give up.[/quote]




AFM i really wish you would'nt give up. (I UNDERSTAND YOUR FRUSTRATION) there are too many posters on this board that think they're pro-mets, but as a Fort Bend county resident that may be affected by Ike i as well as others depend on your expertise. Therefore i ask you to please re consider your exit.[/quote]



Yes please hang around because we need you guys to keep us informed. Its the same couple of ones that want to argue every time. If fact i've just chosen to block their posts because I get sick reading the same argumentative stuff over and over.

There are plenty of us that value your opinion.


Thanks AFM from a fellow civil servant.

[Aristotle]

I agree AFM....Come DWG...Just listen for once please??? Just wait for the GFS to bust on movement over the next 6-12 hours....

I don't know what AFM is trying to say....but I will assure that I will listen if the lesson it taught. What should I be hearing?

[Agua]

Same here. AFM is about the most patient and helpful met on here. You know its bad when he throws in the towel.

[TTheriot1975]

Ok..is the GFDL the same place as the 12z? What About HWRF?

[tolakram]

I don't know what AFM is trying to say....but I will assure that I will listen if the lesson it taught. What should I be hearing?

I think he's saying stop paying attention to crap runs of iffy models just because they do what you (the general you) think or want to happen. The next real runs start later tonight and we'll know at 2am or so if the models are following the euro's lead in this northward shift.

[Air Force Met]

Same here. AFM is about the most patient and helpful met on here. You know its bad when he throws in the towel.

Not throwing in the towel just yet...but I do need a break.

I say this with the utmost respect...but candor...so please take it for what its worth (which depending on who you are...may not be much)...

The biggest diff b/w the promets and really good amatuer mets on this site...and a lot of other amatuer mets...is patience.

If you are an amatuer met and want to be a pro...go to school. If you are an amatuer met and want to be thought of as one of S2K's great amatuers...and we have several...

BE PATIENT.

Stop fawning all over every jump in the satellite and ever jog NW or W...OR N. Stop getting all crazy and calling things "trend is your friend" over 2 model runs. As TIME has proven...THERE WAS NO FRIEND IN THE TREND!!!!!!!!!!

So...get all geeked up over every little shift in everything...and continue to be thought of as an amatuer...and maybe an annoying one. Get some patience.

Many of you love the NHC...and you all know my issues with them. The one thing they have...IS PATIENCE. They lost that patience last night and we have a 150+ mile track shift over 3 advisories...only to end up headed for the same place. They won't make that mistake again.

I suggest you all stop making it too.

Now...sorry for the chewing out. I am taking a break and going to listen to the Eagles at the Toyota Center in Houston.

Peace.

[TTheriot1975]

Thanks AFM...you do answer all my questions when I ask them. I appreciate that. I am a really really new one to this stuff. I have learned a lot from you and the other pro mets. I get confused and really dont understand all the things out there..but I am glad you have never gotten short with me...thanks again

[Aristotle]

Heard YA AFM.

Understood!

Ok so now lets talk about the last 3 seconds of the next 2 frames.....

kidding

Seriously Thanks