ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gboudx]

Not throwing in the towel just yet...but I do need a break.

I say this with the utmost respect...but candor...so please take it for what its worth (which depending on who you are...may not be much)...

The biggest diff b/w the promets and really good amatuer mets on this site...and a lot of other amatuer mets...is patience.

If you are an amatuer met and want to be a pro...go to school. If you are an amatuer met and want to be thought of as one of S2K's great amatuers...and we have several...

BE PATIENT.

Stop fawning all over every jump in the satellite and ever jog NW or W...OR N. Stop getting all crazy and calling things "trend is your friend" over 2 model runs. As TIME has proven...THERE WAS NO FRIEND IN THE TREND!!!!!!!!!!

So...get all geeked up over every little shift in everything...and continue to be thought of as an amatuer...and maybe an annoying one. Get some patience.

Many of you love the NHC...and you all know my issues with them. The one thing they have...IS PATIENCE. They lost that patience last night and we have a 150+ mile track shift over 3 advisories...only to end up headed for the same place. They won't make that mistake again.

I suggest you all stop making it too.

Now...sorry for the chewing out. I am taking a break and going to listen to the Eagles at the Toyota Center in Houston.

Peace.

Dude, I couldn't have said it better myself. Especially the part I bolded. It's insufferable sometimes trying to wade through the muck in the threads to find the gold nuggets of information.

[jlauderdal]

Same here. AFM is about the most patient and helpful met on here. You know its bad when he throws in the towel.

Not throwing in the towel just yet...but I do need a break.

I say this with the utmost respect...but candor...so please take it for what its worth (which depending on who you are...may not be much)...

The biggest diff b/w the promets and really good amatuer mets on this site...and a lot of other amatuer mets...is patience.

If you are an amatuer met and want to be a pro...go to school. If you are an amatuer met and want to be thought of as one of S2K's great amatuers...and we have several...

BE PATIENT.

Stop fawning all over every jump in the satellite and ever jog NW or W...OR N. Stop getting all crazy and calling things "trend is your friend" over 2 model runs. As TIME has proven...THERE WAS NO FRIEND IN THE TREND!!!!!!!!!!

So...get all geeked up over every little shift in everything...and continue to be thought of as an amatuer...and maybe an annoying one. Get some patience.

Many of you love the NHC...and you all know my issues with them. The one thing they have...IS PATIENCE. They lost that patience last night and we have a 150+ mile track shift over 3 advisories...only to end up headed for the same place. They won't make that mistake again.

I suggest you all stop making it too.

Now...sorry for the chewing out. I am taking a break and going to listen to the Eagles at the Toyota Center in Houston.

Peace.

go back to sat night around 940 or so i posted and said be patient, i know its tough but take it easy, you can look up my post..these systems dont move quick, relax, even a sat guy like me got caught up on Sunday wobble watching, you have great resources here, afm , delata ajc3m ortt...chill out folks, this will be bigger than gustav and im setting up a chase and will report this weekend

[cycloneye]

Shear does not appear to be prohitive in this 00:00 UTC update from SHIP.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *         IKE  AL092008  09/10/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    65    68    70    75    78    83    84    80    80    72    66    65    54
V (KT) LAND       65    68    70    75    78    83    84    80    80    57    37    30    28
V (KT) LGE mod    65    67    68    71    73    78    81    82    82    65    39    30    28

SHEAR (KTS)        5    13    11     6    12    13    12    14     7     9    15    14    35
SHEAR DIR        268   308   323   347   323   335    15    47     7   336   293   262   216
SST (C)         29.4  29.3  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.5  29.6  29.6  29.0  28.5  28.1  25.7  23.6
POT. INT. (KT)   158   156   154   154   155   160   162   162   152   144   138   111    95
ADJ. POT. INT.   142   140   138   137   138   144   146   145   134   126   120    96    83
200 MB T (C)   -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -48.7 -48.7 -48.2 -47.7 -48.8 -48.5
TH_E DEV (C)      12    12    11    11    11     9    10     8    11    10    13     5     1
700-500 MB RH     61    60    64    64    60    63    62    64    65    67    64    55    52
GFS VTEX (KT)     32    33    31    34    35    39    37    33    34    28    23    27    21
850 MB ENV VOR    67    59    58    68    56    46    48    39    57    25    26    15   -10
200 MB DIV        50    21     2    19    20     8   -13    -4   -34    -9    53   105   104
LAND (KM)         50   125   206   289   341   404   404   348   168   -54  -278  -459  -609
LAT (DEG N)     23.1  23.5  23.9  24.3  24.6  25.1  25.5  26.1  27.0  28.5  30.5  32.6  34.6
LONG(DEG W)     84.0  84.8  85.5  86.3  87.1  89.1  91.4  93.6  95.6  97.1  98.0  98.0  97.2
STM SPEED (KT)     8     8     8     8     9    10    10    10    10    10    11    10    11
HEAT CONTENT      78    68    99   113    94    57    68    88    70  9999  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/  9      CX,CY:  -7/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  70            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  627  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  13.7 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  95.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   3.   5.   6.   8.   8.   8.   7.   6.   4.   1.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   8.   9.   9.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   2.   4.   3.   0.   1.  -5.  -8.  -5. -10.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   4.   9.  12.  17.  18.  14.  14.   8.   2.   1. -10.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   5.  10.  13.  18.  19.  15.  15.   7.   1.   0. -11.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008        IKE 09/10/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.6 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  22.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  73.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.2 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  90.4 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    22% is   1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    15% is   1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008        IKE 09/10/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY         

[jimguru]

I have been getting model data from hurricanecity is that a good outlet? I am new to the Atlantic / Gulf Storm Basin modeling so any help would be great....

-Jim

[tolakram]

Once the runs are completed this is a good site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[jacindc]

I think the pro mets should make very heavy use of the Ignore/Foe option on this board, and save themselves a lot of stress by no longer reading people who clearly continue to post without thinking. Those people don't deserve the mets's time.

(Actually, *everyone* should make heavy use of the Foe option--mods, is there any way to have it be an option directly from the message boards, rather than having to go to a poster's profile?)

There are a ton of people who quite quickly show that they have no understanding of the issues at hand here, and aren't making any effort to learn (or are just inveterate people I disagree with) and so on the Foe list they go. Sometimes I'll see their comments if other people quote them, and most of the time it shows that I'm not missing anything.

[jimguru]

Once the runs are completed this is a good site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

WOW! Thanks much tolakram!

[txag2005]

Are the 18z models not out yet?

I typically see them on weather underground by 8 PM, but they are still showing the 12z.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Where is the HWRF? Should be out by now, unless it is so scary they decided we can't handle it.

[Steve]

Rock on AFM. Agreed. Ultimately though, it's just the internets.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Brent,do you have that graphic of HWRF that you posted at the 12z run as the 18z animation has not comed out.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Brent,do you have that graphic of HWRF that you posted at the 12z run as the 18z animation has not comed out.

Not out on paysite either Luis..

[ROCK]

I am not seeing the 18z HWRF either with my top secret links...

cant be any worse than that 899mb cat 5 earlier today....

[artist]

are these the 18z?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am not seeing the 18z HWRF either with my top secret links...

cant be any worse than that 899mb cat 5 earlier today....

876 mb 160 knot Cat 5 making landfall at Port Fourchon?



OK, I just made that up, but that would be scarier than an 899 mb.

[Steve]

Early cycle is only out for Low Josephine too for the last :45. Not sure what this means - probably nothing - but outside of the BAM's on SFWMD which show about the same place everything else has been hitting (and the Clipper which is even further east ), nothing much is out there. Haven't checked NCEP yet to see if they are rolling any of the 00z GFS yet.

Steve

[BigB0882]

Can anyone tell me about the Clipper model and why it is so far off from all the other models all of the time? There has to be some fundamental difference with the information they use to come up with their projections. I always know which one it is. At first I thought maybe it relied solely on climatology but then I thought that would be too obvious.

[teal61]

Can anyone tell me about the Clipper model and why it is so far off from all the other models all of the time? There has to be some fundamental difference with the information they use to come up with their projections. I always know which one it is. At first I thought maybe it relied solely on climatology but then I thought that would be too obvious.

Your first thought is correct....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can anyone tell me about the Clipper model and why it is so far off from all the other models all of the time? There has to be some fundamental difference with the information they use to come up with their projections. I always know which one it is. At first I thought maybe it relied solely on climatology but then I thought that would be too obvious.

CLIPER starts with persistance, and increasingly blends in climatology, paths of storms in similar location at similar time of the year. So it should start out pointing the right direction, and then trend toward climatology.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z WRF, about halfway between CRP and BRO Friday night.