ATL: IKE Discussion

[inda_iwall]

It IS organizing, AND intensifying, there is no way to deny that, amazing how the eye has emerged and the cloud tops cooling, really incredible to see it happen so quickly, if this is not rapid, I dont know what is. And it def is moving NW, not a wobble, but a trend. Not sure how that can be denied either. I just do not see South Texas as a landfall now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If i were a Texan is have a sinking feeling in my stomach look at this..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

[ConvergenceZone]

well, we'll see. I still think this is going to be a Major, regardless of what you you guys are saying....Everthing points to a Major, and I'm sorry, but I can't see that not occuring with 3 days over the gulf.....

I don't think Derek is saying it won't be a major hurricane. In fact, he's forecasting it to reach 100 kts. But not tonight. It'll take a good 24 hours to get going.

Okay thanks, Yea, I think I did misunderstand what was being discussed. One thing though, can you believe WXMAN that this hurricane is only 1 mph from not being a hurricane?? I only bring that up because if you look at the satellite pictures with the eye and all, anyone would say, "yep, that's a hurricane"...I wonder if perhaps they are off on their estimates a bit, not my much, but perhaps a little too low?

[dhweather]

This is certain, convection is firing up and the cloud tops are getting much colder.

I respect Derek a lot, but Isidore did sit on land over the Yucatan for what 36 hours? I'm sure there is some realignment that will have to take place, so we just get to wait.

[Lowpressure]

What's with this pin sized eye phenom on a cat 1 storm? I have yet to see that observation brought up for such low velocity. That concentric eyewall replacement for hours and hours doesn't seem to be a logical explanation for this pehnom

Ike has a small ring for a CDO with large breaks around it. For this to be a monster compare the CDO to before he hit Turks. Once he redevelopes this, he will become quite strong. Pin hole would matter if he were fully developed with a lagre CDO.

[gatorcane]

Ike seems to be hesitating or something...I'm seeing just a drift to the WNW over the past hour or so.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... .100pc.jpg

New image shows reds wraped all the way around.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ike seems to be hesitating or something...I'm seeing just a drift to the WNW over the past hour or so.

Hesitating in order to intensify I think...and also there is a weakness between the TX and FL highs that is causing
the storm to have weaker steering currents. Still pretty close to the NHC track IMO, but intensity
wise- pinhole eye...enuff said....and over the highest heat content waters.

[ronjon]

Well, 969 mb is pretty low for a CAT 1 hurricane - it may be stronger now. Ike is taking on that classic "S" symmetry pattern as he starts to wrap up. Dry air that intruded from the west still needs to be mixed out before he really takes off - 12 to 24 hrs maybe.

[CronkPSU]

i'll side with Derek for the obvious reason that I consider him an expert and I was fooled by Gustav who looked great I thought after crossing over pretty much the same exact spot in Cuba but never really got its act together...until the winds start picking up or pressure starts dropping, i won't believe it is undergoing strong intensification

[jinftl]

any report of pressure falls?

not sure if colder cloud tops is an absolute indicator this is bombing out...some of the coldest cloud tops are in the bands far from the center.

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

Heres IR of GOES-12 in rapid scan.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is kind of weird that none of the recon data supports more then 69 knots with this system. Only very slow pressure drops. So far that is.

[Lowpressure]

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Once Ike sorts out the double core issue, I would not expect his eye to be near as small.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

any report of pressure falls?

not sure if colder cloud tops is an absolute indicator this is bombing out...some of the coldest cloud tops are in the bands far from the center.

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Don't know where to get pressure reports...but that pinhole eye reminds me of Wilma.

[Sanibel]

What's with this pin sized eye phenom on a cat 1 storm? I have yet to see that observation brought up for such low velocity. That concentric eyewall replacement for hours and hours doesn't seem to be a logical explanation for this. I been watching trop wx since 97 and heck if I can recall a similar event, cept until lately.

I noticed that too. My explanation was that the core got over those high heat potential waters south of Cuba and started a mini vortex over water where there was less resistance. The result was the small-eyed core within the bigger structure.

[Lowpressure]

Heres IR of GOES-12 in rapid scan.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

Nice shot with not a whole lot of movement.

[jinftl]

if the pressure isnt dropping...isnt the whole RI conversation moot?

It would be odd if ike didn't look better after emerging into the water. the forecast calls for strengthening....it just may not be a Cat 4 by morning.

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is kind of weird that none of the recon data supports more then 69 knots with this system. Only very slow pressure drops. So far that is.

[Ed Mahmoud]

968 interpolated, see recon thread...