ATL: IKE Discussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

if the pressure isnt dropping...isnt the whole RI conversation moot?

It would be odd if ike didn't look better after emerging into the water. the forecast calls for strengthening....it just may not be a Cat 4 by morning.

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is kind of weird that none of the recon data supports more then 69 knots with this system. Only very slow pressure drops. So far that is.

The satillite might have tricked me then...wow these things are tricky...gotta see what pressure does.

[Ed Mahmoud]

968 interpolated, see recon thread...

Ooops, down to 967 now, that isn't a dropsonde. Flight interpolation.

[Sanibel]

Don't make the mistake of thinking a small eye necessarily means rapid intensification. I think the small eye was the result of the inner core being over water south of Cuba in those high heat potential waters where it encountered less resistance and spun up a little mini vortex core.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

if the pressure isnt dropping...isnt the whole RI conversation moot?

It would be odd if ike didn't look better after emerging into the water. the forecast calls for strengthening....it just may not be a Cat 4 by morning.

Pinhole Eye with rapid intensification underway.
See the satellite image. That is more evidence supporting
explosive development that I have forecasted in my previous
post. But Texas remember a small eye will have huge variation in
intensity so once it sucks in the Texas dry air IF that happens it weakens
quickly by several categories IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is kind of weird that none of the recon data supports more then 69 knots with this system. Only very slow pressure drops. So far that is.

I fully expect the winds to catch up to the pressure since it is back over water...In 969 is around 85-90 knots normally. With or with out pressure drops. Of course it is always a wait and see.

[jinftl]

So down 2mb from 8pm advisory which was 969mb. That drop is wilma-esque!

968 interpolated, see recon thread...

[Sean in New Orleans]

Per Texas request, Louisiana released 300 buses to Texas for possible evacuation today, and Gov. Jindal says we are prepared to release more and assist in any way. Gov. Jindal says, "Obviously we are concerned for our neighbors to the West."

[Texas Snowman]

To add to the discussion here, here's what another pro met, Jeff Masters, is saying about Ike tonight:

Hurricane Ike has taken advantage of the warm Gulf of Mexico waters it is over, and has already built an eyewall. At 7:02 m EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found a complete eyewall, which can also be seen on infrared satellite loops and Key West radar. The infrared satellite imagery also shows a rapid cooling of the cloud tops in Ike's eyewall and some of the spiral bands, indicating that the thunderstorms are penetrating higher into the atmosphere--a sign of strengthening. The latest data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the pressure has begun to fall, but Ike's winds remain at minimal hurricane force, 75 mph. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday.

[Derek Ortt]

Dr. Ortt, I totally respect what you have to say, but those are some very, very cold cloud-tops trying to wrap around. We'll see where we are in 24 hours, hey?

I only have a Masters Degree at the present time. Not quite Dr. Ortt

[fasterdisaster]

I just don't get it. All indications are this storm is strengthening at a good clip, 'RI' might not be happening, but intensification HAS to be happening. However, the pressure isn't dropping and winds aren't rising. (well, SFMR says maybe they went up 5 mph but even then that's lower than what this storm looks like) Does anyone know how to explain this?

[deltadog03]

Almost grinding to a halt....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon still suggests top winds ~70 knots. Still a Cat 1.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Don't make the mistake of thinking a small eye necessarily means rapid intensification. I think the small eye was the result of the inner core being over water south of Cuba in those high heat potential waters where it encountered less resistance and spun up a little mini vortex core.

That's true. I see what you're saying. I think Ike will be a wait and see as usual.

[ROCK]

Almost grinding to a halt....

was this predicted? by the NHC.....


I know the models didnt pick up this much slowing...cone is going to shift north if this persists.....in fact the 18z GFS was to fast as well as the GFDL....hmmmm

[HouTXmetro]

Canopy looks like it will encompass the entire Gulf.

[RL3AO]

Almost grinding to a halt....

Sure looks like it on satellite, radar, and recon.

[jinftl]

It appears to be a storm that emerged back into water.....maybe a bit stronger...definitely not weakening...but no RI. Now if the same people who are claiming an RI is undeway are the same ones arguing a TX landfall is inevitable, they might want to back off the RI argument or the landfall one will suffer from guilt by association

I just don't get it. All indications are this storm is strengthening at a good clip, 'RI' might not be happening, but intensification HAS to be happening. However, the pressure isn't dropping and winds aren't rising. (well, SFMR says maybe they went up 5 mph but even then that's lower than what this storm looks like) Does anyone know how to explain this?

[HURAKAN]

Ike is no Gustav.

[tailgater]

Looks like Ike has been stunned a little, I see just a west drift in the last 45 mins. Should start back soon on it's WNW course. I think?

[AZRainman]

Ike has a small ring for a CDO with large breaks around it. For this to be a monster compare the CDO to before he hit Turks. Once he redevelopes this, he will become quite strong. Pin hole would matter if he were fully developed with a lagre CDO.

That doesn't explain why this storm has a history of such a small eye at such a low rotational velocity. You have seen a similar sat image such as this? Such a small eye with a low angular speed to me implies that atmospheric density or another parameter has changed.

65knts and small eye on Sept 4th.

I am surprised I have yet to see any of the old timers bring this up

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ike is slow as a snail...not moving much, cone might be extended more
north at 11.