TD 6 Definitely Weakening - Possibly Now a Tropical Wave

[wxman57]

Morning visible shots show only a tiny hint of a circulation, and not where the NHC put the center. Convection is racing out west ahead of the former LLC. I would be hesitant to call what's out there now a TD at all. The rapid movement and this morning's weakening will make it VERY difficult for the system to become a hurricane by Tuesday morning. It may eventually become Erika later today or more likely on Monday, but hurricane strength is at least 60-72 hours away.

[Tip]

Signature has defintely gone downhill. She's opening up.

[rainstorm]

just like claudette, moving way too fast

[Colin]

just like claudette, moving way too fast

But, what did Claudette do?

[mf_dolphin]

Good point Colin. The convection is getting wrapped around the circulation again to my eyes and it's entering a favorable environment. Claudette stayed together in a lot more hostile environment...

[Ola]

WXman, I think you should have waited a bit more before saying such a thing. Looking at the latest sat pics, it sure does not look like a wave, maybe the circulation is not wrapped around very well because of the fast speed, but it is wraping around convection, and it looks like its gonna start bursting again. Thats what happens with weak systems, they go through this temporary stages and we think its nonstop, just like yesterday during the day, it looked like we would already have a strong TS today, then during the night poof..... and now it seems like it wants to get its act together again.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, she's wrapping up again. However she is still moving too fast for rapid deepening. Given that we are entering the latter part of July I would expect that she would slow her westward race by tomorrow. That being said, we have to remember that we've seen a strong easterly flow this year, which has moved systems further west and delayed development. I do expect a different result than Claudette though. Everyone from the islands to the GOM needs to watch this baby. Surprised that the islands aren't that interested in putting up watches yet per the NHC discussion.:o Cheeers!

[wxman57]

Actually, Ola, what I said is stil true - it had apparently weakened to a tropical wave as of 8am CDT this morning. Even the NHC acknowledged such on the 10am discussion. I didn't say it would not regain a circulation later today. In the last few hours, convection is on the increase and there is a bit more evidence of a small LLC.

[Ola]

Yeah, agreed. It's just that the topic of the thread sounded like someone thinking that TD6 was done. You did say it could regain it all, but I read it as a doom post.

But I still disagree with convection racing westward of the former llc. I think what hapenned was that the llc was less evident, but it was still underneath the limited convection, or on the southern end of it.