ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z NAM also has former Jospehine as a TD approaching the Bahamas...

[jjrobin]

Can someone help me? Based ont he CURRENT models...IF Ike makes landfall around Corpus...what effects of the storm would San Antonio have? Thanks so much!

[bigGbear]

Can someone help me? Based ont he CURRENT models...IF Ike makes landfall around Corpus...what effects of the storm would San Antonio have? Thanks so much!

_____
Best amateur guess - perhaps 50-60 mph winds - excessive rainfall with possibility of
tornadoes

[vaffie]

0Z GFS rolling out. Up to 78 hours so far. Almost identical in terms of track and position to the 18Z, except that it's 6+ hours slower. We'll see how it affects landfall now.

old: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

new: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z 84h-corpus

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084m.gif

[jasons2k]

Don't even look at what the GFS is doing. You might need Tylenol.

[HouTXmetro]

Don't even look at what the GFS is doing. You might need Tylenol.

GFS is around Corpus, what's the problem?

[jasons2k]

Don't even look at what the GFS is doing. You might need Tylenol.

GFS is around Corpus, what's the problem?

It's not the final landfall point, it's what it's doing with the trough coming in. It splits it and leaves a peice behind as a cutoff low. Hence, the trough that is to erode the ridge isn't as strong/deep as it swings through. This is new, so in other words, once again the GFS doens't know what to do with the trough. That makes the ultimate landfall (and final trajectory) suspect on this run, as will the 00Z GFDL and HWFR now...meaning no more clarity until the Euro comes out, and no more clarity from the GFS and its cousins until tomorrow.

To sum it up, the NHC is going to have to pull the trigger on advising EOM offices tomorrow what their evac. recommendations are with little ammunition.

Bedtime.

[Stormcenter]

Don't even look at what the GFS is doing. You might need Tylenol.

GFS is around Corpus, what's the problem?

It's not the final landfall point, it's what it's doing with the trough coming in. It splits it and leaves a peice behind as a cutoff low. Hence, the trough that is to erode the ridge isn't as strong/deep as it swings through. This is new, so in other words, once again the GFS doens't know what to do with the trough. That makes the ultimate landfall (and final trajectory) suspect on this run, as will the 00Z GFDL and HWFR now...meaning no more clarity until the Euro comes out, and no more clarity from the GFS and its cousins until tomorrow.

To sum it up, the NHC is going to have to pull the trigger on advising EOM offices tomorrow what their evac. recommendations are with little ammunition.

Bedtime.

The bottom line it's still has Ike headed into the middle TX coastline. It's time
to start reacting and hope for the best.

[HouTXmetro]

Don't even look at what the GFS is doing. You might need Tylenol.

GFS is around Corpus, what's the problem?

It's not the final landfall point, it's what it's doing with the trough coming in. It splits it and leaves a peice behind as a cutoff low. Hence, the trough that is to erode the ridge isn't as strong/deep as it swings through. This is new, so in other words, once again the GFS doens't know what to do with the trough. That makes the ultimate landfall (and final trajectory) suspect on this run, as will the 00Z GFDL and HWFR now...meaning no more clarity until the Euro comes out, and no more clarity from the GFS and its cousins until tomorrow.

To sum it up, the NHC is going to have to pull the trigger on advising EOM offices tomorrow what their evac. recommendations are with little ammunition.

Bedtime.

Maybe a pro met can chime in but perhaps what the GFS is saying will happen? Doesn't it have the new data, hence is should be quite accurate right? Just curious.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Could happen. I believe I vaguely remember one of the mets talking about a cutoff low could form somewhere around southern california.

[thetruesms]

Maybe a pro met can chime in but perhaps what the GFS is saying will happen? Doesn't it have the new data, hence is should be quite accurate right? Just curious.

It certainly could happen - it may be a feature that the model hadn't picked up on before but actually will happen, but it may not. The problem with numerical models is that any small error integrated over a large amount of time will grow, and can become a very large error. As a result, you would tend to have more faith in something that occurs over several model runs, as it would indicate a greater likelihood that it is the result of some signal in the atmosphere, and not noise.

edit - In this case, this cut-off low would be something to look for in other models, and in future model runs to see if it is a feature that continues.

[dwg71]

gfs has had deep south texas for a couple of days now, 6 runs or so. Its been pretty consistant.

lets see if it pans out, we were told it would be more reliable than 18z, well they were identical...just south of corpus

[Nederlander]

gfs has had deep south texas for a couple of days now, 6 runs or so. Its been pretty consistant.

lets see if it pans out, we were told it would be more reliable than 18z, well they were identical...just south of corpus

deep south texas? i think it was deep south last night, but moved to middle tx coast today. right?

[dwg71]

one run was north of corpus, the last 5 or 6 were between bro and corp

[ROCK]

if the EURO bites then I might consider it....there is no ridge at 84hr to the north of Ike as it approaches the coast......why it keeps sending Ike in more south I dont know...

[dwg71]

rock there is high pressure, according to 0z GFS run, over top of IKE at 72 hours when he is just off the coast of south texas.

lets see how it plays out. 84 hours he should be well inland.

[dwg71]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

late in coming out, hwrf tx,mex border...
fwiw..

[Duddy]

South Texas Project Nuclear Power Plant will be evacuating non-essential personnel starting tomorrow at 12PM central.

They have a saying here in Matagorda..

"If they evacuate STP, the you know the s*** is about to hit the fan."

[jinftl]

84 more hours of ike....and then we can track the remnants of josephine! models starting to pick that up....and mr. ridge is still there to push her west.....ugh

rock there is high pressure, according to 0z GFS run, over top of IKE at 72 hours when he is just off the coast of south texas.

lets see how it plays out. 84 hours he should be well inland.