ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stormcenter]

LOL....Tomorrow is always the best answer!

Sat-"Sunday we will know more..."
Sun-"Monday we will have a better grip"
Mon-"Tuesday is going to be a key day"
Tues-"Wednesday we will likely know..."

closer to landfall more consensus right?

I believe the NHC has a good grip on Ike now.

[dwg71]

consensous as of now is corpus to matagorda

hwrf , shifted north from border to corpus
gfdl, stayed the same at corpus
gfs, stayed the same just south of corpus
nogaps still south of corpus
ukmet shifted slightly south from freeport to matagorda area
cmc moved slightly west from east end of galv to west end.

[dwg71]

Way past my bedtime, but we're seeing a "hint" of consensus coming together. Middle TX Coast and points E IMHO.

atm it looks to be middle texas coast and south, sans cmc.

lets see what euro does.

[Stormcenter]

Way past my bedtime, but we're seeing a "hint" of consensus coming together. Middle TX Coast and points E IMHO.

atm it looks to be middle texas coast and south, sans cmc.

lets see what euro does.

Last time on this much consensus was with Gustav 3 days out.

[southerngale]

southern gale, couldnt see anything on that link...where does it come in

further north - Corpus or further north Galveston???

hmmm, sorry. The link was working fine, but now the HWRF won't open for me either. No, not Galveston. I didn't look too closely (didn't know I wouldn't be able to look again!), but I think somewhere near Matagorda Bay, or south of there near the NHC track. I'll try to find it somewhere else.

[superfly]

Euro is near Matagorda, looks like the models are finally clustering.

[Viper54r]

Is that the 00Z or 06Z Euro?

[srainhoutx]

I suspect enough consensus to put out the evacuation orders today. Watches would likely to be from Port Aransas to at least High Island and maybe E to Sabine Pass. We'll see what happens later today.

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[Viper54r]

Nevermind, I'm an idiot...that Euro run has horrible initialization and it also has Ike shooting due west once it emerges off of Cuba.

[southerngale]

Is the 00Z Euro the one that comes out at 3 Am Eastern?

Yes, it comes out twice a day... about 3 AM and 3 PM Eastern.

The new run that just came out looks similar to the previous one.



Edit: No fair. You must have edited your post right after I clicked the quote button. Anyway, FWIW, the Euro has performed best overall with Ike.

[Bunkertor]

Edit: No fair. You must have edited your post right after I clicked the quote button. Anyway, FWIW, the Euro has performed best overall with Ike.

Same with me

[Meso]

GFDL has about a Cat 5 landfall... 136kt..

And HWRF is showing 126kt landfall...

Intensity model estimates are usually pretty bad, but it's still quite an eye opener.

[Just Joshing You]

I'd like to say Ike is like the #1 Overall pick in hockey. He has all the potential in the world, but if he and the environment aren't conducive for success, then he'll fizzle.. probably won't win Calder trophy, and he'll take too long to get his bearings and ramp up scoring production (winds, surge etc) and peak just before he retires at an early age.

[Just Joshing You]

He could either be a Patrik Stefan type, or he could be a Sidney Crosby type. Lets hope for a Patrik Stefan.

[HouTXmetro]

So looks like the entire coast is still at risk as of this morning.... Tough call for evacuations

[dwg71]

gfs through 48 hours looks just like the last 7 or 8 runs, heading west towards tx.mex border. lets see where it is at 60 hours should be good indicator for this run.

[HouTXmetro]

gfs through 48 hours looks just like the last 7 or 8 runs, heading west towards tx.mex border. lets see where it is at 60 hours should be good indicator for this run.

please post images or link

[dwg71]

60 hour location exactly on 00z 66hour location.

[Nimbus]

The next 24 hours or so will remove some of the uncertainty as to how far north Ike wanders toward the current weakness and how quickly he intensifies. A stronger storm might build a high pressure dome over itself that would lessen the effects of shear later in the forecast. Hurricanes dance with the upper air steering pattern, if they are large enough they can sometimes lead the steering rather than follow.

There does appear to be some shear in the western gulf at the moment. If the shear lessens and the Texas high bridges east over Ikes dome than I expect Ike to reach cat 4 status. Stronger storm with a high bridging east would bring the trough east a little earlier and shift the models from Corpus more toward Houston.

If the shear and dry air does manage to eat away at Ike a little, than south Texas looks like a more likely scenario.

[KWT]

dwg71, we really are starting to get some better agreement now on the models.