11 AM EDT advisory on TD#6=13.0n-50.4w

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... pt31us.htm

The good news is that it wont be a hurricane before it arrives at the islands nor when it passes just south of Puerto Rico.

[Colin]

That's very good news...but it will probably bring some rain and wind to the islands nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt1.html

Here is the discussion.

Yes I expect rain and windy conditions as it passes close to our south but nothing more hopefully it not deviate or intensifie unexpectedly.

[Stephanie]

Just looking at the Tropical storm update on TWC, it looks like it's getting a nice little spin to her.

[mf_dolphin]

It also looks like it's headed for a track south of PR and maybe south of Hispanola. If it manages to avoid going over the high mountains of the islands all bets are off.

[Guest]

Where do you think it will go MF if it misses the places you stated and stays south?

You sure you the vacancy sign isn't out in Tampa Bay!

Patricia

[mf_dolphin]

If it stays south of Hispanola I would be looking at a N.E. GOM target right now. So much of the long range track will depend on the timing and southerly position of the trough. If it were to miss the trough all together then the entire GOM is open IMO

[ColdFront77]

The current thinking of Tropical Depression 6 not being a hurricane when it makes it to the Puerto Rico area points west, may not necessarily remain. The situaton with what should be Erika should obviously be watched. Last I checked more than half of the ingredients for a deepening low pressure system were still there.