ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[dwg71]

gfs. landfall at 72 hours south of corpus, just like last run.

[dwg71]

dwg71, we really are starting to get some better agreement now on the models.

now we need to get the models to agree with us on a cat 1 kennedy county landfall

[HouTXmetro]

Is the GFS still pushing into West Texas or showing more recurve?

[dwg71]

slight turn more northward after landfall, west san antonio area i would guess . through 96 hours.

certainly not a huge recurve.

[deltadog03]

what kind of speed did the gfdl and hwrf have for the 12-24 movement...(from 00z runs)

[HouTXmetro]

what kind of speed did the gfdl and hwrf have for the 12-24 movement...(from 00z runs)

Wondering the same thing, Ike still moving at snails pace.

[dwg71]

they were pretty slow up until 48 hours, both lagged behind nhc 48 hour mark slightly.

[jinftl]

Latest runs....pretty consistent with prior runs and decent consensus amongst models.

Consistency & Concensus....maybe we are finally seeing how this may play out....famous last words...lol

[ROCK]

The EURO was not matagorda.....what link are you guys seeing?

The EURO was north of the consensus closer to Freeport......at 0z.....

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL landfall near Corpus Christi,and after that it recurves north and northeast.

WHXX04 KWBC 101128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.3 84.6 295./ 7.0
6 23.6 85.3 294./ 7.4
12 24.0 86.0 298./ 7.3
18 24.2 86.6 288./ 5.7
24 24.5 87.5 294./ 8.8
30 25.0 88.4 294./ 9.0
36 25.2 89.4 286./ 9.5
42 25.4 90.6 278./11.0
48 25.7 91.8 284./11.6
54 26.1 93.1 288./12.3
60 26.6 94.4 289./12.4
66 27.1 95.5 298./11.0
72 27.7 96.6 296./11.2
78 28.3 97.5 305./10.3
84 29.1 98.2 316./ 9.8
90 30.0 98.6 339./10.1
96 30.9 99.0 333./ 9.6
102 31.9 99.2 350./ 9.8
108 32.5 99.2 3./ 6.5
114 33.1 98.5 51./ 8.1
120 33.5 98.0 48./ 5.5
126 34.0 97.7 31./ 6.2

[dwg71]

The EURO was not matagorda.....what link are you guys seeing?

The EURO was north of the consensus closer to Freeport......at 0z.....

link

[pablolopez26]

Either way ladies and gentlemen, Houston will be feeling something of Ike come Saturday morning.

Do you guys believe that we are seeing a consensus finally? Or do you all forsee any more model movement slightly north?

Let me know, im on my way to U of H right now! Good luck to us all!

[Sabanic]

The latest GFDL has Ike at . . .

0 23.3 84.6 295./ 7.0
6 23.6 85.3 294./ 7.4
12 24.0 86.0 298./ 7.3
18 24.2 86.6 288./ 5.7
24 24.5 87.5 294./ 8.8
30 25.0 88.4 294./ 9.0

in 30 hours. Looks like he may hit 25 Latitude way before that. JMO

[dwg71]

Either way ladies and gentlemen, Houston will be feeling something of Ike come Saturday morning.

Do you guys believe that we are seeing a consensus finally? Or do you all forsee any more model movement slightly north?

Let me know, im on my way to U of H right now! Good luck to us all!

consensous is showing Just north of Corpus, but I would check back this evening and see what they are saying.

[jinftl]

Range of possibilities probably are within forecast cone....hopefuly that can narrow down some over time...if models stay consistency continues, that may be the final answer +/- 50 miles.

Either way ladies and gentlemen, Houston will be feeling something of Ike come Saturday morning.

Do you guys believe that we are seeing a consensus finally? Or do you all forsee any more model movement slightly north?

Let me know, im on my way to U of H right now! Good luck to us all!

[shah8]

The HWRF sez Corpus Christi should grab its ass and kiss it good-bye sweet luv.

Cat 5 direct hit.

[jinftl]

Not to downplay forecast....but NHC is thinking Cat 3 plus or minus 1 cat...

The HWRF sez Corpus Christi should grab its ass and kiss it good-bye sweet luv.

Cat 5 direct hit.

[ROCK]

The EURO was not matagorda.....what link are you guys seeing?

The EURO was north of the consensus closer to Freeport......at 0z.....

link

PM me.....

[HouTXmetro]

The HWRF sez Corpus Christi should grab its ass and kiss it good-bye sweet luv.

Cat 5 direct hit.

Not really a change, is the recurve occuring sooner now?

[shah8]

Oh, and rain and wind is forcast for Austin on Sat.

Recurve still same, I think.

Gotta realize, though that the GFS's upper air matrix might be bunk. Gotta see the 12z before we can really see for sure.