ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Portastorm]

Oh, and rain and wind is forcast for Austin on Sat.

Recurve still same, I think.

Gotta realize, though that the GFS's upper air matrix might be bunk. Gotta see the 12z before we can really see for sure.

That is putting it mildly. Should the track of Ike verify, our local NWS says 6-10 inches of rain along and east of I-35 with tornadoes, sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 65. My peeps here in Austin have no idea what kind of hello Ike is going to give them this weekend. Well, at least my house will be ready!

[mattpetre]

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I wanted to post this one last time (at least last time till after landfall), but it looks like I should have bought lottery tickets back on Sept. 2. I still believe that the latest trends are pointing to landfall about 50 miles NE of my prediction and a little more NE of NHC current centerline. Watch the cone folks! Houston seems rather complacent in general right now.

This map has my original predicted path of Sept. 2 in yellow. Actual path locations (when I remembered to grab them) in black. And the smallest dots are the latest GFDL forecast.



Have to toot my horn just a tiny bit when my sWAG was mostly right. Fortunately it's not that often for me with storm predictions.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS has a good graphic showing potential impacts to points inland after landfall; assuming the current track.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/

[Portastorm]

DFW NWS has a good graphic showing potential impacts to points inland after landfall; assuming the current track.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/

Thanks gdoudx! Nice graphic. I really like NWSFO DFW. They do a great job in many ways. I wish our guys were that sharp!

[jasons2k]

I just want to point something out with the models. The GFS has shown some more consistency in the track but thing concerning this is not necessarily the "what" but the "how". As I posted late last night, look what it did to the trough out west. I read a comment by a pro met somewhere else and he analyzed 4 seperate solutions on the previous 4 runs up to & including last night's 00Z.

Sorry, I just don't trust it until it gets some consisenty with the upper air features. Don't just look at the track.

If you want consistency, look at the Euro and the UKMET. They are both consistent and they are both consistently NE of the guidance and GFS.

I'm getting really concerned Houston-Galveston is going to get caught with their pants down if Galveston doesn't pull the trigger on evacs today.

[ROCK]

I just want to point something out with the models. The GFS has shown some more consistency in the track but the concerning this is not necessarily the "what" but the "how". As I posted late last night, look what it did to the trough out west. I read a comment by a pro met somewhere else and he analyzed 4 seperate solutions on the previous runs up to & including last night's 00Z.

Sorry, I just don't trust it until it gets some consisenty with the upper air features. Don't just look at the track.

If you want consistency, look at the Euro and the UKMET. They are both consistent and they are both consistently NE of the guidance and GFS.

I'm getting really concerned Houston-Galveston is going to get caught with their pants down if Galveston doesn't pull the trigger on evacs today.

I agree as the EURO and the UK have lead the way so far.....no reason to discount them now....



If the 12z EURO bites then I might go with the current consensus......however I dont think it will....IMO...

[Sjones]

Galveston County is running out of time to call evacuations for ppl to make it out safely, when it take 36 hrs to evacuate Galveston alone...I too am concerned that NO EVACUATIONS have been called yet on the TX Coast ANYWHERE. I think it will be a monkey see monkey do type ordeal where when someone calls evacuations, many counties will follow suit and then there is one big traffic jam worse than it was with Rita, and some may be sitting in their cars on the highways with a Hurricane blowing over them.

I do see where Brazoria County has called for Evacuations now...Are they the only county thus far??
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hurricane/5993276.html

[Meso]

06GFDL



137kt, 936hpa


06 HWRF


122kt, 907hpa

[Shoshana]

Oh, and rain and wind is forcast for Austin on Sat.

Recurve still same, I think.

Gotta realize, though that the GFS's upper air matrix might be bunk. Gotta see the 12z before we can really see for sure.

That is putting it mildly. Should the track of Ike verify, our local NWS says 6-10 inches of rain along and east of I-35 with tornadoes, sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 65. My peeps here in Austin have no idea what kind of hello Ike is going to give them this weekend. Well, at least my house will be ready!

All I can say is I hope all the people on our street downwind of us take in all the things that can blow away!

[HouTXmetro]

8AM Update, Keep in mind that the EURO is closer to the UKMET... GFS appears to be out to lunch which in turn is affecting the GFDL and HWRF.

[attallaman]

Any chance of the ridge weakening or moving to the E putting the upper TX coast, W/LA or C/LA under the gun?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are the rain totals being predicted up here in the OKC area through Sunday:

These will not be just from Ike though. The incoming front and moisture from Lowell will also play a part.

The winds will also become pretty gusty this weekend too. The hourly weather graph shows us within a long period of nearly 30mph sustained winds with gusts to 35-40mph.

[Cape Verde]

So, if the GFS has the wrong solution, and other models are based partially on it, I'm assuming there is a southern bias to their runs.

That would suggest that the model convergence on Corpus is misleading and the probable landfall is further up the Texas coast. Brazoria County is smart to be evacuating this morning. Galveston is gambling.

[HouTXmetro]

So, if the GFS has the wrong solution, and other models are based partially on it, I'm assuming there is a southern bias to their runs.

That would suggest that the model convergence on Corpus is misleading and the probable landfall is further up the Texas coast. Brazoria County is smart to be evacuating this morning. Galveston is gambling.

I would assume, but I'm not a pro met.

[southerngale]

8AM Update, Keep in mind that the EURO is closer to the UKMET... GFS appears to be out to lunch which in turn is affecting the GFDL and HWRF.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

I have seen several mets saying similar things, like the EURO and UKMET have been the most consistent and the ones with the least errors, etc. If that's the case, why wouldn't the NHC put more weight in them? I assume they see something to feel confident the GFS and its cousins are more accurate with a landfall further south. I do NOT want to evacuate, so the farther south the better (for me), but I don't want to find out too late that I should have. I am pretty sure there's a gazillion other people thinking similarly.

[vaffie]

The way I look at it, this storm is gonna be devastating. It's gonna affect millions. Evacuations merely soften the blow. You can't evacuate the eastern half of Texas, and that's how many people are going to experience potentially life-threatening wind damage although naturally you DO have to get people threatened by storm surge out. Texas emergency folks are really smart and careful. They've been setting up the highways so that evacuation will be smooth and efficient if need be. Even the shoulders have been cleaned up as extra evaculanes. Tankers have been positioned, everything is set up. They just need to give the word. The GFS and its cousins have been out to lunch with its bizarre cut off low. That could change at midday however and it could have a more northerly track. By 1 pm the HWRF and GFDL will have corrected too. By 2 pm, we will have the 12Z euro. I think at that point, Galveston will give the word. It is not tons of time to evacuate, but it will probably be just enough time.

[vbhoutex]

Any chance of the ridge weakening or moving to the E putting the upper TX coast, W/LA or C/LA under the gun?

Possibility? Definitely. Probability? It becomes less of a probability as we progress closer to landfall. Being from the Houston area I definitely take note of the fact that this far out landfall predictions can still be 100-150 miles off along with the fact that almost all W GOM storms, especially this time of year, will tend to make/begin a right turn close to or prior to landfall. As it stands now with the current projected landfall we are looking at TS force winds in many squalls and plenty of rain Friday-Saturday.

[vbhoutex]

The way I look at it, this storm is gonna be devastating. It's gonna affect millions. Evacuations merely soften the blow. You can't evacuate the eastern half of Texas, and that's how many people are going to experience potentially life-threatening wind damage although naturally you DO have to get people threatened by storm surge out. Texas emergency folks are really smart and careful. They've been setting up the highways so that evacuation will be smooth and efficient if need be. Even the shoulders have been cleaned up as extra evaculanes. Tankers have been positioned, everything is set up. They just need to give the word. The GFS and its cousins have been out to lunch with its bizarre cut off low. That could change at midday however and it could have a more northerly track. By 1 pm the HWRF and GFDL will have corrected too. By 2 pm, we will have the 12Z euro. I think at that point, Galveston will give the word. It is not tons of time to evacuate, but it will probably be just enough time.

End game on Galveston as far as evacuation is 36 hrs. prior to TS force winds onset, now expected no later than noon Friday along the coastal region unless Ike does a slowdown. The math says they will be just under the wire if they pull the trigger in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Definitely playing a very fine line to make these decisions.

[Senobia]

I do see where Brazoria County has called for Evacuations now...Are they the only county thus far??
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hurricane/5993276.html

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Cameron Parish, LA - 10am Mandatory

[BayouVenteux]

I do see where Brazoria County has called for Evacuations now...Are they the only county thus far??
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hurricane/5993276.html

\
Cameron Parish, LA - 10am Mandatory

Just to note, that's the lower portions of Cameron Parish, iirc.

I've read in histories of Hurricane Carla that the area experienced tidal flooding, so it's probably a wise move on their part.