ATL: IKE Discussion

[CronkPSU]

i may be mistaken but isn't it sitting over very warm water right now, so if it has slowed down it is in warmer water than it would have been if it had started making the movement westward or northwestward

[HouTXmetro]

You really can't use the key west radar too heavily right now, the system is just too far away to get a decent measure on motion and speed, best use Vis/IR from here on out until its getting closer to Texas.

KWT, I thought of that (due to the distance ect), but at least it may be a clue of Ike doing the loop. Now if we can possibley see it on sat. pics. But I think we can all agree it appears to have really slowed down in the last several hours. What implications could this have on the long term track - only time will tell.

IR showed the loop also.

[TampaFl]

Ike still appears to be caught between the two highs. Pro Met Deltadog pointed this out Tuesday - he may be onto something here. Toughts & comments welcomed.

[Texas Snowman]

Bob,

Agreed - water kills.

And with that in mind, here's a couple of snippets from Jeff Masters at http://www.wunderground.com:

Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large and well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening is ready to occur, now that Ike has built a new eyewall. I expect Ike will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by Wednesday night, and Ike has the potential to become a Category 4 hurricane by Thursday, as forecast by the HWRF and GFDL models. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots, for the remainder of Ike's life. Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy (Figure 3). There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is more likely that Ike will be able to maintain major hurricane status as it approaches the coast.

And this one...

Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge
The Texas coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the long expanse of shallow Continental Shelf waters offshore. The shallow depths allow large the swirling winds of the hurricane to pile up huge mounds of water, which then sweep inland when the hurricane makes landfall. Even Category 1 hurricanes are capable of generating 15 foot storm surges along some sections of the Texas coast. For example, the August 29, 1942 hurricane hit near Port O'Connor, Texas as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. However, this hurricane had been a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds the day before landfall, allowing it to pile up a large storm surge over the Continental Shelf just offshore the central Texas coast. The storm weakened suddenly in the 12 hours before landfall, but brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane to shore, since the high angular momentum of the swirling storm surge waters did not have time to decrease much. A 10-15 foot storm surge came ashore over a 100-mile stretch of coast between Port O'Connor and Freeport.

[poof121]

Ike still appears to be caught between the two highs. Pro Met Deltadog pointed this out Tuesday - he may be onto something here. Toughts & comments welcomed.

NHC expects the Atlantic high to build west, according to their discussion...

[xironman]

You really can't use the key west radar too heavily right now, the system is just too far away to get a decent measure on motion and speed, best use Vis/IR from here on out until its getting closer to Texas.

KWT, I thought of that (due to the distance ect), but at least it may be a clue of Ike doing the loop. Now if we can possibley see it on sat. pics. But I think we can all agree it appears to have really slowed down in the last several hours. What implications could this have on the long term track - only time will tell.

IR showed the loop also.

So did recon, that is pretty good for track as well.

[x-y-no]

I think that Charley, with his unexpectedly high winds and Katrina with her unexpectedly high surge has changed the psyche of people a little to lean towards evacuation. In the end, it's the water that kills and that's where the evacuation should focus. Charley's low death total in Charlotte County shows that even cat 4 winds do not pose anywhere near the threat that surge flooding does.
Not that I enjoyed riding out Charley's eye in Port Charlotte, but it was unpleasant rather than deadly, big difference.

Yeah, that's always been my philosophy. I'll "evacuate" exactly the minimum distance I can to assure I'm out of any storm surge. Of course, that means I may end up living under primitive conditions for some time, but I've done plenty of that voluntarily in my lifetime, it doesn't bother me in the least. It's worth it to me to be on scene to take care of friends, family and property. If I had any serious health issues the calculus would be different, but thank God that's not the case yet.

[Sanibel]

Sitting over the loop current with a good thick CDO.

Charley moved through too fast to judge wind damage. Slow Charley down to 9mph and a thicker hurricane and I think you would be singing a different tune.

[KWT]

I don't think its looped or anything, I think we are seeing trochoidal wobbles with the eye as the explosive convection develops in the eye, thats a classic sign of IR starting to occur...

[mattpetre]

I don't think its looped or anything, I think we are seeing trochoidal wobbles with the eye as the explosive convection develops in the eye, thats a classic sign of IR starting to occur...

Sorry for posting a one liner (I don't do that often), but does IR = Intesificationes Rapido?

[gboudx]

I don't think its looped or anything, I think we are seeing trochoidal wobbles with the eye as the explosive convection develops in the eye, thats a classic sign of IR starting to occur...

Sorry for posting a one liner (I don't do that often), but does IR = Intesificationes Rapido?

To me, IR means InfraRed. RI means Rapido Intensificationes.

[WmE]

I don't think its looped or anything, I think we are seeing trochoidal wobbles with the eye as the explosive convection develops in the eye, thats a classic sign of IR starting to occur...

Sorry for posting a one liner (I don't do that often), but does IR = Intesificationes Rapido?

To me, IR means InfraRed. RI means Rapido Intensificationes.

I think he meant RI though.

[HURAKAN]

The monster roars.

[tolakram]

[KLP124]

They called for a mandatory evacuation in SE Texas two weeks ago and ALOT of people heeded the warning and left -- fully expecting to be reimbursed since they were asked/told to leave (not saying whether it's right or wrong...) Anyway, FEMA has said that since the storm did not hit our area and a federal disaster declaration wasn't declared that no one will be eligible for any type of reimbursement. Some people are really angry -- "The local government told me to leave and I did even though I couldn't afford it." And since you're dealing with a voting public and elected officials, I can see where they might be hesitant to anger their constituants. Not to mention all the money the local counties spent evacuating people who couldn't evacuate themselves...

I know a lot of people around here who have said they won't evacuate this time until they are absolutely certain they're going to be hit because they can't afford to leave again (no pay, spent money on gas, hotels, meals, etc.) I can see both sides of the argument but I didn't leave and I don't think my life is anyone's responsibility but my own.

[xironman]

I know it is a bad way to use VDM's and lowest pressure, but it certainly suggests something happened.

[KWT]

Yeah sorry I did mean RI in that case

Does look good Hurakan, only a matter of time before the winds really ramp up I'd imagine.

[Texashawk]

They called for a mandatory evacuation in SE Texas two weeks ago and ALOT of people heeded the warning and left -- fully expecting to be reimbursed since they were asked/told to leave (not saying whether it's right or wrong...) Anyway, FEMA has said that since the storm did not hit our area and a federal disaster declaration wasn't declared that no one will be eligible for any type of reimbursement. Some people are really angry -- "The local government told me to leave and I did even though I couldn't afford it." And since you're dealing with a voting public and elected officials, I can see where they might be hesitant to anger their constituants. Not to mention all the money the local counties spent evacuating people who couldn't evacuate themselves...

I know a lot of people around here who have said they won't evacuate this time until they are absolutely certain they're going to be hit because they can't afford to leave again (no pay, spent money on gas, hotels, meals, etc.) I can see both sides of the argument but I didn't leave and I don't think my life is anyone's responsibility but my own.

Absolutely. But what if you want to leave but you have a job where they'll let you go if you leave before there's a 'mandatory' evacuation? Lots of people work in low-security jobs where your replacement is just a paper application away. That doesn't make it right or fair, but it is the reality for many people.

[Senobia]

Galveston's calling for a voluntary evac at noon for the west side of the island. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5993388.html

[WmE]

Yeah sorry I did mean RI in that case

Does look good Hurakan, only a matter of time before the winds really ramp up I'd imagine.

I'm impressed with Ike's CDO, does look very good, in spite of the westerly shear. Very near Cat 2 streght now IMHO.