ATL: IKE Discussion

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Mattie
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7321 Postby Mattie » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:10 am

Senobia wrote:Galveston's calling for a voluntary evac at noon for the west side of the island. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5993388.html


and from NBC5i.com:

Texas Evacuations To Begin

Texas emergency officials are taking no chances with the lives of people who have special medical needs and are in the path of Hurricane Ike.

Officials in Brazoria County, Texas, have issued some evacuation orders as Hurricane Ike moves toward the Gulf Coast, KPRC-TV in Houston reported.

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for 10 a.m. Wednesday for residents just south of Houston and all people who have special medical needs and are in the path of Hurricane Ike.

Some residents of the Corpus Christi area will be put on buses Wednesday morning and taken to San Antonio. State troopers and local police also will guide traffic along an evacuation route.

Emergency officials also are getting ready to evacuate 1 million people from the impoverished Rio Grande Valley. They've lined up nearly 1,000 buses in case they're needed to move out the many poor and elderly people who have no cars.

Federal authorities said they won't check people's immigration status at evacuation loading zones or inland checkpoints. But residents said they were skeptical.

One reason for the skepticism came in May. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the Border Patrol would do nothing to impede an evacuation in the event of a hurricane. But when Hurricane Dolly struck the Rio Grande Valley in late July, no mandatory evacuation was ordered. The Border Patrol kept its checkpoints open and agents caught a vanload of illegal immigrants.

In Galveston, Texas, Justin Presnal is getting his home ready for yet another potential punch from Mother Nature, KPRC reported.

"I guess that's sort of the price you pay for living down here," said Presnal. "It does get sort of old when you don't know what's going to happen. It's a little tiring."

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas told residents to get ready.

"Galveston will be on alert," said Thomas. "We are not relaxing any of our plans."

Her team especially warned Galveston's West End residents that they are not protected by the seawall.

"It is the most vulnerable area to flooding," City Manager Steve LeBlanc said. "Although we are not asking anyone to evacuate yet, we are anticipating the possibility."

They could ask for voluntary evacuations as early as Wednesday morning.
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#7322 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:10 am

I suspect the shear that was on Ike a few hours ago has eased off somewhat and thus the convection on the western side has finally been allowed to expand westwards a lot, certainly looks a more balanced hurricane and one that will probably keep strengthening throughout the day.
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#7323 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:11 am

Still, there is some shear and dry air to the west, so, we'll see - perhaps the NHC is correct in saying the increase in strength will be modest...

Let's hope so...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7324 Postby jinftl » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:12 am

With the new advisory in less than an hour, officials may be prompted to order more evacuations for coastal texas surge zones...don't rule that out.
Last edited by jinftl on Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7325 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:13 am

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I still think its dealing with some westerly shear, watch last few frames and see the quick warming of cloud tops.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7326 Postby Storm Contractor » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:19 am

You guys are all GREAT! I mean that, not being sarcastic! I love reading all of this, the good info and the armchair quarterbacking! It is entertaining to read, learn and snicker at how people from all walks of life interpret info and second guess the "head coach/NHC" The one thing I will say is that while they might make what appears to some as "mistakes", the people at The NHC are VERY GOOD! I think it would be a HUGE surprise if this thing did anything dramatically different than what they expect! It's almost like they have access to the best avaliable technology and they have people interpreting real time data 24 hours a day! :lol:


FWIW: Here in Panama City, well north of the center we already tides well above normal, the golf course along the bay has water in the fairway.
Last edited by Storm Contractor on Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7327 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:19 am

dwg71, I'm not sure, I suspect there probably is 10kts of shear on it but it seems to be less then earlier as the western quadrant about 6hrs ago didn't even exist really at now its there even if its still not super strong.

No denying though the pressure is still going down so clearly conditions still good enough for pressure to drop. Got to imagine its only a matter of time before those winds take a jump up to catch up with the pressure, just when will that occur?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7328 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:20 am

It's hard to determine exactly what sort of intensification recovery Ike will have. It's still sorting out land interaction. The pressure is too low for windspeed, so the fact it is over the loop current should add to the chances of an intensity recovery. Ike strikes me as a slower recoverer because of his big-natured category 3 type - but the kind that gets strong once it gets going.
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Re:

#7329 Postby TampaFl » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:22 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

The monster roars.



Hurakan, I noticed on the sat. pic. that the northwest side of IKE is flat on the cloud structure(sw to ne). What could be cousing this? Alot of times this indicates that a change in direction is going to occur or that it is bumbing into the high aloft on the TX/TA coast. Thoughts/comments welcomed.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7330 Postby Aristotle » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:27 am

KLP124 wrote:They called for a mandatory evacuation in SE Texas two weeks ago and ALOT of people heeded the warning and left -- fully expecting to be reimbursed since they were asked/told to leave (not saying whether it's right or wrong...) Anyway, FEMA has said that since the storm did not hit our area and a federal disaster declaration wasn't declared that no one will be eligible for any type of reimbursement. Some people are really angry -- "The local government told me to leave and I did even though I couldn't afford it." And since you're dealing with a voting public and elected officials, I can see where they might be hesitant to anger their constituants. Not to mention all the money the local counties spent evacuating people who couldn't evacuate themselves...

I know a lot of people around here who have said they won't evacuate this time until they are absolutely certain they're going to be hit because they can't afford to leave again (no pay, spent money on gas, hotels, meals, etc.) I can see both sides of the argument but I didn't leave and I don't think my life is anyone's responsibility but my own. :)


That seems like alot of B.S. to me. Shelters were setup and provided. People just didn't want to use them. They were thinking they could get some nights on the town on the Gov. The shelters were no where near full. You don't have to get a hotel and the shelter will feed you. Might not be comfortable, but its free. I'm a democrat so I'm all for the gov helping but people need to take personal responsibility. Sorry I just get worked up about people with expectations.
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#7331 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:28 am

guesses on track?? by NHC...

just an extension in my opinion.

Landfall in 72 hours somewhere fairly close to the north side of Corpus.

motion since last update (interm. adv) seems to be pretty much due west. Recon confirms that for the most part.
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#7332 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:28 am

What about the slow down? I know it was suppose to slow but this things is crawling now.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7333 Postby weatherbud » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:29 am

Sanibel wrote:It's hard to determine exactly what sort of intensification recovery Ike will have. It's still sorting out land interaction. The pressure is too low for windspeed, so the fact it is over the loop current should add to the chances of an intensity recovery. Ike strikes me as a slower recoverer because of his big-natured category 3 type - but the kind that gets strong once it gets going.


Maybe in the next update, we can see more clearly on the models, the path Ike will really go through. The landfall timeframe now is 2am to 8am on Saturday morning. There are still lot of changes that can occur within 48 hours. Here's some weather map models to have a look at.
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Re:

#7334 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:30 am

Frank2 wrote:Still, there is some shear and dry air to the west, so, we'll see - perhaps the NHC is correct in saying the increase in strength will be modest...

Let's hope so...



A Cat 3 will be devastating enough, so I hope it won't get stronger then that, but it has the chance....
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Re:

#7335 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:31 am

dwg71 wrote:guesses on track?? by NHC...

just an extension in my opinion.

Landfall in 72 hours somewhere fairly close to the north side of Corpus.

motion since last update (interm. adv) seems to be pretty much due west. Recon confirms that for the most part.


Yeah pretty much the same from the NHC, no reason to change it.

All thats happening now with the motion is its correcting the NW jog it made about 6hrs, that plus the wobbling of the storm as it deepens yet further has put it right back on the forecasted track.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7336 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:33 am

This storm is eating westerly shear. So another Gus stumble could be partly going on. We should call it fast this time instead of expecting SST boosting. Ike could push it off. No way to tell.

GFDL was accurate at this distance for this storm. If that means anything now it is pointing at San Antonio Bay with a borderline category 5 storm that weakened to category 3 at landfall. Lavaca Bay shouldn't be excluded at this range either. GFDL run shows a trough that didn't make it in time to cause any meaningful turn.
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Re: Re:

#7337 Postby vaffie » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:34 am

TampaFl wrote:
Hurakan, I noticed on the sat. pic. that the northwest side of IKE is flat on the cloud structure(sw to ne). What could be cousing this? Alot of times this indicates that a change in direction is going to occur or that it is bumbing into the high aloft on the TX/TA coast. Thoughts/comments welcomed.


It's started expanding to the west now.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#7338 Postby KLP124 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:38 am

Aristotle wrote:
KLP124 wrote:They called for a mandatory evacuation in SE Texas two weeks ago and ALOT of people heeded the warning and left -- fully expecting to be reimbursed since they were asked/told to leave (not saying whether it's right or wrong...) Anyway, FEMA has said that since the storm did not hit our area and a federal disaster declaration wasn't declared that no one will be eligible for any type of reimbursement. Some people are really angry -- "The local government told me to leave and I did even though I couldn't afford it." And since you're dealing with a voting public and elected officials, I can see where they might be hesitant to anger their constituants. Not to mention all the money the local counties spent evacuating people who couldn't evacuate themselves...

I know a lot of people around here who have said they won't evacuate this time until they are absolutely certain they're going to be hit because they can't afford to leave again (no pay, spent money on gas, hotels, meals, etc.) I can see both sides of the argument but I didn't leave and I don't think my life is anyone's responsibility but my own. :)[/quote]

That seems like alot of B.S. to me. Shelters were setup and provided. People just didn't want to use them. They were thinking they could get some nights on the town on the Gov. The shelters were no where near full. You don't have to get a hotel and the shelter will feed you. Might not be comfortable, but its free. I'm a democrat so I'm all for the gov helping but people need to take personal responsibility. Sorry I just get worked up about people with expectations.


Like I said... didn't say it was wrong or right, just an observation. I personally know of a lady who uses the same daycare as me that couldn't put her kids in there this week because she spent all of her money at Schliterbahn while they were evacuated! :roll:
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