ATL: IKE Discussion

[Txdivermom]

Rock, where have you been... what are you thoughts on this heading into the 48 hour window? I noticed that the EURO is still holding to a more NE landfall.

Originally I heard that if the storm slowed down that this will not be a good thing for the Houston Area, but NOW I am hearing that it is a GOOD thing.. certainly confusing...

Please post the EURO or PM me when you get a chance! Thanks!

Where can we find the EURO online? I've not been able to find that one.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Front still draped inland across the Gulf Coast.

[dwg71]

11am NHC track at LF looks to have shifted northward by about 60-80 miles looking at the forecast advisory - 28.5N-97W. Intensity forecast at 105 kts (120 mph). Movement stationary the last three hours.

Like my buddy AFM said, dont focus on the line, it still on the exact path as prior update, overlay the two graphics, if the NHC used a curved line then you could see it better, if they dont change track reasoning at 4PM, it will appear to move south because they are just extrapolating the points based on the track. The hurricane does not go from point to point, especially around the periphery of a ridge, it will curve.

It did not move land fall point at all.

[Aristotle]

Convection seems to be warming in the inner core right now but the overall structure is looking slowly more and more impressive. Its pressure is pretty deep for a cat-1 but the winds are well spread out and there is still a double wind Maxia. That is probably why iits not really ramping up all that much still in terms of winds, once it does sort that out then watch the winds jump up a fair bit.

What the heck is a double wind maxia?

[Sanibel]

That shift would have me looking for more north shifts. Trough and poleward shifts are a different animal than ridge shifts.

[southerngale]

Rock, where have you been... what are you thoughts on this heading into the 48 hour window? I noticed that the EURO is still holding to a more NE landfall.

Originally I heard that if the storm slowed down that this will not be a good thing for the Houston Area, but NOW I am hearing that it is a GOOD thing.. certainly confusing...

Please post the EURO or PM me when you get a chance! Thanks!

Where can we find the EURO online? I've not been able to find that one.

ECMWF Animation

[ColdFusion]

Has Ike stalled? I read this on another board.

If so, what impact does that have on the track? I have a bad feeling that fares worse for us in Houston/Galveston currently northeast of the track.

No indication Ike has stalled.

[txag2005]

Any thoughts on how this so called "stall" will affect potential landfall?

As many others, I'm a bit confused. One moment we hear slow down will mean a more north and east term towards us in Hou/Gal. Now, some are saying this is better for Hou/Gal.

Can anyone help out?

[WmE]

Convection seems to be warming in the inner core right now but the overall structure is looking slowly more and more impressive. Its pressure is pretty deep for a cat-1 but the winds are well spread out and there is still a double wind Maxia. That is probably why iits not really ramping up all that much still in terms of winds, once it does sort that out then watch the winds jump up a fair bit.

What the heck is a double wind maxia?

A potential outer eyewall as mentioned in the forecast discussion.

[Senobia]

Movement stationary the last three hours.

Anybody have an idea how long he can sit there until the steering mechanisms (H, ridge - whatever you want to call them) erode/move and he veers off the projected path?

Or if this is even a factor...eh.

Edit: Err, what txag said a couple of posts before my trigger...

[Steve Cosby]

Rock, where have you been... what are you thoughts on this heading into the 48 hour window? I noticed that the EURO is still holding to a more NE landfall.

Originally I heard that if the storm slowed down that this will not be a good thing for the Houston Area, but NOW I am hearing that it is a GOOD thing.. certainly confusing...

Please post the EURO or PM me when you get a chance! Thanks!

Where can we find the EURO online? I've not been able to find that one.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082800!!!step/

A better place (all the models are here including the ECMWF):

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[txag2005]

Has Ike stalled? I read this on another board.

If so, what impact does that have on the track? I have a bad feeling that fares worse for us in Houston/Galveston currently northeast of the track.

No indication Ike has stalled.

I've seen some people mention this. I think its b/c in the latest advisory the NHC said the center has not moved much in the last few hours. I guess stationary is a better word.

[ronjon]

3 day cone now moved up the the Tx-La border - that trough timing may make this LF a nail biter along the TX coast.

[Sabanic]

A prolonged stationary position, or staying slow for a long period of time could possibly cause the forecasted turn to happen further from landfall which could move the landfall point northward. Right? Ike's gonna do just what he wants to do.

[tolakram]

Any thoughts on how this so called "stall" will affect potential landfall?

As many others, I'm a bit confused. One moment we hear slow down will mean a more north and east term towards us in Hou/Gal. Now, some are saying this is better for Hou/Gal.

Can anyone help out?

No stall.

from the discussion:

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.

There are also concentric eyewalls now which means a replacement cycle is continuing.

[xironman]

The relevant sections of the 11 am as to what I have seen today

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.

WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.

[Sabanic]

3 day cone now moved up the the Tx-La border - that trough timing may make this LF a nail biter along the TX coast.

And will certainly start getting the full attention of those in LA

[Sanibel]

A (edit:) slow down would mean slower forward speed and therefore more time for a trough to pull it north on the Texas coast. Hang on we could see some track changes from this.

[cycloneye]

KWT look at this from Discussion:

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.

[Aristotle]

Convection seems to be warming in the inner core right now but the overall structure is looking slowly more and more impressive. Its pressure is pretty deep for a cat-1 but the winds are well spread out and there is still a double wind Maxia. That is probably why iits not really ramping up all that much still in terms of winds, once it does sort that out then watch the winds jump up a fair bit.

What the heck is a double wind maxia?

A potential outer eyewall as mentioned in the forecast discussion.

where do i find this forecast discussion?