ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[x-y-no]

End game on Galveston as far as evacuation is 36 hrs. prior to TS force winds onset, now expected no later than noon Friday along the coastal region unless Ike does a slowdown. The math says they will be just under the wire if they pull the trigger in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Definitely playing a very fine line to make these decisions.

Unfortunately, if they wait that long a lot of people won't learn of it until they get up Thursday morning. I think they need to pull the trigger this evening, no later than 10pm.

[vbhoutex]

End game on Galveston as far as evacuation is 36 hrs. prior to TS force winds onset, now expected no later than noon Friday along the coastal region unless Ike does a slowdown. The math says they will be just under the wire if they pull the trigger in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Definitely playing a very fine line to make these decisions.

Unfortunately, if they wait that long a lot of people won't learn of it until they get up Thursday morning. I think they need to pull the trigger this evening, no later than 10pm.

Personally I think they should pull the trigger, if they are going to, at 7 or 8 pm. What that does is make the announcement after the height of rush hour here so the roads wouldn't be as crowded when they start heading North No later than 10 pm definitely imo.

[thetruesms]

I have seen several mets saying similar things, like the EURO and UKMET have been the most consistent and the ones with the least errors, etc. If that's the case, why wouldn't the NHC put more weight in them? I assume they see something to feel confident the GFS and its cousins are more accurate with a landfall further south. I do NOT want to evacuate, so the farther south the better (for me), but I don't want to find out too late that I should have. I am pretty sure there's a gazillion other people thinking similarly.

I certainly agree that the ECMWF has been the most consistent and had the least error, but I don't agree at all with the UKMET. It's certainly been consistent, but it has consistently underdone the ridging - it was one of the last to give up on a recurve in the atlantic.

In the 15Z discussion yesterday, NHC actually explicitly mentioned that they're shading the forecast to the ECMWF - they've definitely taken notice that it's been on top of this storm. However, past performance doesn't guarantee future success - you can't ignore the other guidance just because it doesn't agree with the one model you like more. NHC is doing the responsible thing forecast-wise by leaning towards the better model, but keeping in mind that there are other possibilities. I can only hope that they're also doing the responsible thing by letting those who make decisions know why they're doing what they're doing as well, so they can make more informed decisions.

[Mattie]

From the NBC5i.com:

Texas Evacuations To Begin

Texas emergency officials are taking no chances with the lives of people who have special medical needs and are in the path of Hurricane Ike.

Officials in Brazoria County, Texas, have issued some evacuation orders as Hurricane Ike moves toward the Gulf Coast, KPRC-TV in Houston reported.

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for 10 a.m. Wednesday for residents just south of Houston and all people who have special medical needs and are in the path of Hurricane Ike.

Some residents of the Corpus Christi area will be put on buses Wednesday morning and taken to San Antonio. State troopers and local police also will guide traffic along an evacuation route.

Emergency officials also are getting ready to evacuate 1 million people from the impoverished Rio Grande Valley. They've lined up nearly 1,000 buses in case they're needed to move out the many poor and elderly people who have no cars.

Federal authorities said they won't check people's immigration status at evacuation loading zones or inland checkpoints. But residents said they were skeptical.

One reason for the skepticism came in May. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the Border Patrol would do nothing to impede an evacuation in the event of a hurricane. But when Hurricane Dolly struck the Rio Grande Valley in late July, no mandatory evacuation was ordered. The Border Patrol kept its checkpoints open and agents caught a vanload of illegal immigrants.

In Galveston, Texas, Justin Presnal is getting his home ready for yet another potential punch from Mother Nature, KPRC reported.

"I guess that's sort of the price you pay for living down here," said Presnal. "It does get sort of old when you don't know what's going to happen. It's a little tiring."

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas told residents to get ready.

"Galveston will be on alert," said Thomas. "We are not relaxing any of our plans."

Her team especially warned Galveston's West End residents that they are not protected by the seawall.

"It is the most vulnerable area to flooding," City Manager Steve LeBlanc said. "Although we are not asking anyone to evacuate yet, we are anticipating the possibility."

They could ask for voluntary evacuations as early as Wednesday morning.

[dwg71]

Has 12z UKMET come out?

This is a model thread, just a friendly reminder.

[Nimbus]

For a track change further right the models would have to factor in a slowdown or stall wouldn't they? (off topic implications of stall deleted)

[smw1981]

I have a question about models...How many runs does it take before it is considered consistent? I see "model consistency" a lot on this board so I wanted to make sure I had a good understanding of exactly what that is!

Thanks for any help and sorry for the ignorance!

[txag2005]

One minor turn and I think Hou/Gal has a major problem on their hands. I don't foresee a Galveston evac until tomorrow morning if at all, unless there is a big track change.

I think I've read on other boards that greater Houston needs around 60 hours for evac. If that's the case, we're past that point.

[njweather]

Exactly. Just a little northward movement will put South & Southwest Houston under the NE quad of the storm.

Plus, we'll be in the most tornadic area of the storm, as indicated by this graphic (DFW NWS):

[jasons2k]

I have a question about models...How many runs does it take before it is considered consistent? I see "model consistency" a lot on this board so I wanted to make sure I had a good understanding of exactly what that is!

Thanks for any help and sorry for the ignorance!

I don't know that a cutoff would be but I can say we haven't seen it yet except with the Euro and UKMET.

[Wx_Warrior]

Please post source and link to Cameron Parish mandatory evacuations.

[Jagno]

http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/ ... -2008.html

[chmx44l]

Please post source and link to Cameron Parish mandatory evacuations.

http://www.kplctv.com/Global/story.asp?S=8974029


Click here for Cameron Parish Evacuation Info.

Posted: Sep 8, 2008 08:09 PM CDT

Updated: Sep 9, 2008 09:38 AM CDT





Wednesday a mandatory evacuation order will go into effect for lower Cameron parish and low lying areas of Big Lake, Grand Lake and Hackberry.

The Cameron parish school board says all schools will be closed tomorrow.

Cameron parish school board employees should report to your respective sites anytime after 6 a-m today and plan on staying until all schools are packed, all contents are evacuated and all buildings are secure.

[Senobia]

Please post source and link to Cameron Parish mandatory evacuations.

A couple of posters below were able to do this. My source was the radio. I heard it on (Channel 96.1) on the way to take the kids to school this morning.

[Wx_Warrior]

TY...Low levels of Cameron Parish. Makes sense.

[micktooth]

Is this the models thread? The GFS is rolling in folks.

[sbcc]

Sorry to make this the topic of my first post, but I'd suggest that the best spot for evacuation notices is in the thread at the top of this subforum. Evacuations are important enough to be posted separately and it is becoming difficult to follow the models discussion.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional Storm2k moderator. The opinions contained in this post in no way reflect the official policies of Storm2k or its moderation staff. Please refer to Storm2k rules and moderation guidance for official instructions.

[dixiebreeze]

Poleward through the weakness in the ridge?:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg

[Wx_Warrior]

Models only!

GFS 54h

[dwg71]

GFS at 60 Hours is shifted north, i will post as soon as more updates