ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Okay so I guess if it develops it would be called Josephine....

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow:

Okay so I guess if it develops it would be called Josephine....

Unless the remnants combine or interact with another tropical wave and a completely new LLC develops. ex. TD 10 / TD 12 "Katrina"

[Vortex]

notice the streamers heading up from the south and se on the visible...Pretty good indication something is trying to establish itself.

[Steve H.]

I agree, this area bears watching. The environment in the SW Atalantic should be improving as Ike heads further west into the GOM. GEM was hinting at development for the past couple of days, but we'll see if the trough in the east doesn't amplify too much to suck it out to sea. Arae in the Eastern Atlantic also bears watching.

[gatorcane]

I think its likely we will see this area mentioned in the 2:00pm EST TWO....

[jlauderdal]

I agree, this area bears watching. The environment in the SW Atalantic should be improving as Ike heads further west into the GOM. GEM was hinting at development for the past couple of days, but we'll see if the trough in the east doesn't amplify too much to suck it out to sea. Arae in the Eastern Atlantic also bears watching.

definitely a bear watch, lets see if the bear awakes due to a higher level of interest this afternoon

[gatorcane]

We see UL divergence and vorticity near this area. No low-level convergence yet:

[gatorcane]

convection on the increase:

[Blown Away]

Think the NHC gives it a chance at 2pm?? Code yellow maybe?

[GeneratorPower]

Mabye so. Looking a little better.

[gatorcane]

likely they will at the 2pm EST TWO and if not and if it persists by the 8pm TWO for sure.

[gatorcane]

No mention yet:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IKE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 395 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[jlauderdal]

No mention yet:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IKE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 395 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

bear stays asleep, lets see if it can maintain the convection

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
Think the NHC gives it a chance at 2pm?? Code yellow maybe?

I don't know for the NHC but man our PRO MET of Meteo France do not play with that and waste their time and i understand them...as St Marteen and St Barth are in yellow alert since 12am for a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight and extending tommrow. So given the thread i guess that this perturbed area is ex Josephine guys? or my eyes are deceiving me ? So we monitor this area carefuly, whereas their latests weather forecast do not anticipate more than that, that means no TD. Moreover Meteo-Fance has no idea concerning the possible amount of water that would bring this perturbed area, for them it's a risk with a strong probability at that time, but no more...so "good" news for the moment .

[gatorcane]

I have to say I'm a bit surprised NHC didn't at least give this area a yellow code....for the time being.

I have seen plenty of worse looking areas this season that were stamped with yellow. At any rate, I'm pretty confident it will be mentioned at the 8pm EST TWO. It continues to build convection this afternoon

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

A SURFACE TROUGH... THE REMNANTS OF T.S.JOSEPHINE... IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 21N55W 13N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

[jlauderdal]

miami nws not real excited about it


LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GFS SHOWS A LOW LVL FEATURE
JUST NW OF PUERTO RICO AND ALTHOUGH LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
INDICATE BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES, NEITHER SFC NOR 850 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS ANYTHING OVER THAT AREA. GFS BRINGS THIS LOW LVL
LOW/TROUGH WEST TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SAT NIGHT AND SO IT SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER MAINLY ERN SECTIONS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN
THIS...MOSTLY SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY ISOLD
TO LOW SCT POPS.

[Cyclone1]

If it does redevelop, would it be Josephine? Did it keep a circulation?

[RL3AO]

If it does redevelop, would it be Josephine? Did it keep a circulation?

The closed surface ciruclation is gone. Its now an open trough. Not sure what the NHC would do with this.

[HURAKAN]