Looks more organized

[cycloneye]

The past few hours the system has begun to reorganize more as it is passing the 50w longitud that is the line where the sst's are much warmer.

[jabber]

She is not done yet. I am thinking TS by the 5:00am TWO

[wxman57]

Yeah, I'd agree, it seems to be trying to regain a LLC over the past few hours. Sure is a small storm.

[Ola]

I think TS by 5pm or 11pm tonight. It sure looks like its gonna go through an increase stage like it did yesterday with the difference that its starting from a much better disturbance than it started yesterday from, with only fast speed as an inhibitor to fast development IMO. But remember they can still develop at this speed, just not as fast.

[cycloneye]

Remember Claudette that was moving more fast than TD#6 almost 30 mph and the rest is history.

[Stormsfury]

Yeah, I'd agree, it seems to be trying to regain a LLC over the past few hours. Sure is a small storm.

Also agreed here ... and that #6 is such a small system is what concerns me quite a bit ... small storms have had some rapid intensification period in the past (and rapid weakening as well) and can be subject to very subtle changes (see Claudette for examples as well) ...

[cycloneye]

Convection is now more concentrated and a well defined LLC is evident.But now the question is if TPC will upgrade at 5 PM to Erika.

[mf_dolphin]

I doubt if they will upgrade until the Recon gets there tomorrow. I agree it's looking better but not good enough for an upgrade at this time IMO

[Stormsfury]

Marshall, you may be dead on with that statement ... 205 pm discussion regarding #6 from NHC ... the conservativeness shows from NHC once again (and I'm not being critical of them)...

SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 41.6N 40.0W AT 20/1500 UTC
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ONLY STRATUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY THIS AFTERNOON
AS ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND
LOCATED OVER 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 50.4W AT 20/1500
UTC MOVING W 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROKEN BAND OF MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RE-FORMING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND A PORTION OF THE SW QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON.
MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN BOTH
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...HOWEVER DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE OF A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

[JetMaxx]

In 1980, Allen became a tropical storm, hurricane...and a monster cat-5 --all while moving W to WNW at 20-25 mph.

Allen was moving 20 kts when he hit 911 mb (170 mph) south of Puerto Rico...899 mb (190 mph) in the Yucatan Channel....and 909 mb (180 mph) in the Western GOM....so I know tropical systems can deepen while moving over 20 mph.

[wxman57]

In 1980, Allen became a tropical storm, hurricane...and a monster cat-5 --all while moving W to WNW at 20-25 mph.

Allen was moving 20 kts when he hit 911 mb (170 mph) south of Puerto Rico...899 mb (190 mph) in the Yucatan Channel....and 909 mb (180 mph) in the Western GOM....so I know tropical systems can deepen while moving over 20 mph.

That's possible, but it is very rare. Allen was able to do it because winds aloft matched the fast surface flow exactly. This is not the case with TD 6.

[Colin]

I don't think it will be upgraded...like Marshall said, until the recon. goes in tomorrow. Time will tell...