ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[txag2005]

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but is there any indication of increased risk for Houston/Galveston area based on the newest runs? I'm getting really nervous over the complacency much of the Hou/Gal area is currently expressing and I'm just wondering if there's any validity to my concerns.

[Senobia]

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but is there any indication of increased risk for Houston/Galveston area based on the newest runs? I'm getting really nervous over the complacency much of the Hou/Gal area is currently expressing and I'm just wondering if there's any validity to my concerns.

Ditto. Albeit, I'm in the Beaumont area. Good question for the folks in the know.

Tiny jogs can make all the difference in the world and it seems like we're hearing more and more about 'jogs' with each passing forecastmodel run. Not sure what to believe anymore.

[Steve]

>>I'm getting really nervous over the complacency much of the Hou/Gal area is currently expressing and I'm just wondering if there's any validity to my concerns.

Don't. Like in the rest of life, you can only stand up for yourself and/or your family. If you feel the threat, and like everyone else - you should already have your preps and plans in place - act. Window is closing. Always better to be safe than sorry when dealing with hurricanes. JMO

Steve

[ColdFusion]

If i'm reading the maps correctly - According to the northern most model of the general consensus (UKMET), Ike is not expected to cross 25N until sometime around 2am, tomorrow morning.

Sure looks to be well ahead of that timetable at the moment.

[Air Force Met]

So the trough may indeed turn Ike up towards Louisiana instead, especially since Ike seems to be wobbling a bit North towards the weakness over the Gulf Coast?

12Z NAM seens to see the weakness a tad bit better than the 0Z GFS at initialization looking at 500 mb heights, but NAM ignores the weakness, it seems.

Maybe everyone here should follow the advice of EVERY promet...and ignore the NAM.

As far as LA....no. That would be an epic model collapse. What this slow movement and the trof does mean is HOU-GLS is in play. Still calling my shot over Matagorda bay area as I have since I blew it off the east cost (had some good company on that one). Ike needs to get moving in order to make Matagorda Is. Otherwise...it will work upthe coast.

[dwg71]

UKMET is moved pretty significantly south, nearly south of NHC track. If he gets moving, like expected, Corpus to Matagorda is the current consensous. Actually NHC is the northern outlier at land fall atm. Sans BAMM BAMMS & CMC

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is more north than NHC track near Freeport as landfall.

[ROCK]

UKMET? the 06z run? goes out only 48hrs....where are you seeing this DWG?

[dwg71]

pretty big shift west by CMC, all is coming together at CMC was an outlier.


Rock , see graphic above, its the 12Z

[Nederlander]

12z CMC is more north than NHC track near Freeport as landfall.

yea the cmc has been north this whole time. its actually come south a little. Its been showing a Sabine Pass landfall, now its at least trying to get closer to the model consensus

[ROCK]

pretty big shift west by CMC, all is coming together at CMC was an outlier.

Significant? high island to Freeport? thats what 30 miles......give me a break...

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET more south near Corpus Christi.



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2008



HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.8N 85.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 10.09.2008 23.8N 85.1W MODERATE

00UTC 11.09.2008 24.9N 86.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2008 25.3N 88.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.09.2008 25.6N 90.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.09.2008 26.4N 93.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.09.2008 27.6N 96.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.09.2008 29.4N 97.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.09.2008 32.9N 97.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.09.2008 35.7N 94.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 15.09.2008 36.1N 88.8W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Nederlander]

pretty big shift west by CMC, all is coming together at CMC was an outlier.

Significant? high island to Freeport? thats what 30 miles......give me a break...

high island to freeport is more like 75-100 miles Rock

[Sanibel]

CMC was the lone model to nail Fay's east turn and track through Florida at this distance.

[HouTXmetro]

NO new GFDL and HWRF runs? South shift by UKMET brings it inline with consensus. Awaiting EURO to come aboard.

[ROCK]

pretty big shift west by CMC, all is coming together at CMC was an outlier.

Significant? high island to Freeport? thats what 30 miles......give me a break...

high island to freeport is more like 75-100 miles Rock

My parents live on the west end of Galveston and it aint no 75 miles bro.....trust me...

[ROCK]

NO new GFDL and HWRF runs? South shift by UKMET brings it inline with consensus. Awaiting EURO to come aboard.

EURO at 2pm....hope to around to post....

[jasons2k]

Let's keep the disco on the models please

[patgaz]

high island to freeport is more like 75-100 miles Rock[/quote]

My parents live on the west end of Galveston and it aint no 75 miles bro.....trust me...[/quote]

nope..according to google it's 79.4 miles from freeport to high island
ps.. i live on the east end of galveston

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFDL right up Galveston Bay!