ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[ROCK]

there is your north run everyones been looking for.....whats the intensity???

[dwg71]

Do you have coordinates on GFDL Dest5

[Stratosphere747]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

[DESTRUCTION5]

Do you have coordinates on GFDL Dest5

No pay site..Shows no West movement at all..Just WNW right up in the BAy...

[txag2005]

Where do those coordinates put landfall?

[ROCK]

high island to freeport is more like 75-100 miles Rock

My parents live on the west end of Galveston and it aint no 75 miles bro.....trust me...[/quote]

nope..according to google it's 79.4 miles from freeport to high island
ps.. i live on the east end of galveston[/quote]

what do you consdier High island?....Bolivar penisula is what I consider High Island...

[shah8]

And that's game! Ed Mahmoud, eat your shorts, hats, lots of crow, dance in the streets nekkid, and I don't care what you do, but DeNial is not a river in Egypt.

I bet that this run is going too far north, but Freeport is where the models are going to eventually stick. We *are* talking about 3 day tracks at this point...the math becomes inexorable.

[ROCK]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

nasty nasty nasty.....

[Clint_TX]

And here we go.....

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

[dwg71]

Thats a shift in excess of 200 miles, what about HWRF...

If Euro comes in down in Corpus - I will eat my keyboard.

Just when things were looking to be coming into line. One run, so lets see if it stay out there.

[txag2005]

Do we know the intensity at landfall for the new GFDL?

[Brent]

Where do those coordinates put landfall?

Right over Galveston and then over downtown Houston.

[txag2005]

I hope this is an outlier.

[teal61]

30.0/95.6=Spring-Woodlands area....yikes

[Clint_TX]

I hope this is an outlier. Looks like all the other models look to have fallen near Matagorda Bay.

Looks like the new upper air data was factored in..and the GFDL has a very very good track record at 60 hrs out.

[Nederlander]

high island to freeport is more like 75-100 miles Rock

My parents live on the west end of Galveston and it aint no 75 miles bro.....trust me...

nope..according to google it's 79.4 miles from freeport to high island
ps.. i live on the east end of galveston[/quote]

what do you consdier High island?....Bolivar penisula is what I consider High Island...[/quote]

High Island is a city that lies on the far eastern fringe of the bolivar peninsula... Crystal Beach, TX is really the bolivar peninsula...

[Stormcenter]

I hope this is an outlier.

I hope so. Anyway I'm not worried.....I know the GFDL's history.

[ROCK]

high island to freeport is more like 75-100 miles Rock

My parents live on the west end of Galveston and it aint no 75 miles bro.....trust me...

nope..according to google it's 79.4 miles from freeport to high island
ps.. i live on the east end of galveston

what do you consdier High island?....Bolivar penisula is what I consider High Island...[/quote]

High Island is a city that lies on the far eastern fringe of the bolivar peninsula... Crystal Beach, TX is really the bolivar peninsula...[/quote]



PM and we can discuss further....model thread.....

[Wx_Warrior]

Fighting over mileage between cities means one thing-STORM IS COMING.

UK Met went south and GFDL goes north....Goodness. Still no consensus and we are 72 hours out.

[patgaz]

what do you consdier High island?....Bolivar penisula is what I consider High Island...[/quote]

the town of High Island is located ~30 miles from Port Bolivar.. you gotta drive through Port Bolivar, then Crystal Beach, through Gilcrest, then you reach High Island. You think its somewhere else?