ATL: IKE Discussion

[Stormcenter]

So, what does that mean? Is that the main model everyone goes by or is it just one of many?

GFDL shifts to Houston with landfall Friday evening:

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.8 85.3 300./ 7.0
6 24.0 86.0 287./ 6.6
12 24.3 86.5 306./ 5.4
18 25.0 87.2 310./ 9.1
24 25.4 88.1 300./ 9.1
30 25.8 89.1 291./10.1
36 26.3 90.3 291./11.4
42 26.6 91.5 286./11.7
48 27.2 92.6 298./10.9
54 28.0 93.7 305./12.3
60 28.9 94.7 314./13.3
66 30.0 95.6 319./12.8
72 31.1 96.2 333./12.6
78 32.7 96.2 0./15.3
84 34.2 95.6 19./16.6
90 36.2 94.1 38./23.1
96 38.2 91.3 54./30.2
102 39.9 87.4 67./34.1
108 41.4 82.1 73./43.1

The NHC has discounted several runs by the GFDL with Gustav (landfall TX/LA border & Mobile) and I believe they've done the same with Ike when it was way off compared to the other model consensus. Oh well it just gave me some thing else to worry about.

[cpdaman]

irak do you really think you will make it out surfing in such waves, the swell will be appox 20 feet @ 13-15 seconds at it's peak.


anyhow IKE should be working it's way over loop current this evening so give him a few hours lag time after this occurs, and then (so long as mid level shear behaves it self) we should have a robust strengthening trend from the wee hours into thursday morning.

[Air Force Met]

thats was the Jeff guy from Texas...He's a pro met

Yep...and some on here owe him an apology...because you read way too much into a discussion and talked about how the NHC wasn't mentioning that.

BTW...SFMR winds are showing TS force winds now over 200 miles from teh center in the NW quad.

[cycloneye]

First pass of Air Force plane found lowest pressure of 956.2 mbs and 79kt at Flight level.

[bayoubebe]

I just hope that the people grumbling about not leaving this time cause they can't afford due to the Gustav evac have a severe change of heart.

Or finances.

keep your receipts for reimbursement

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080904/ap_ ... tav_fema_1

Unless your home is damaged by IKE and your insurance will not pick up the costs, FEMA will NOT pay for your hotel rooms or other costs associated with a mandatory evacuation. See link. FEMA reported this today. I know. Just happened to me with Gustav. Gone for 5 days, hotel bill of $700.00 plus approximately $250 in gas. I didn't expect them pay, but it would have been nice.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008 ... es_ho.html

We're not getting a cent reimbursed.
The gas alone(we traveled by our own vehicle) was a killer. Then we paid for food while not home, and had to replace all of our refrigerated, and frozen foods once we got home. It's a lot of money loss.
And when are they going to pick up the debris?!

About the NHC....
IMHO, I think the NHC has done a good job this season, I said it before, and I still stand by it.

[haml8]

AFM what do you think of the reports that the GFDL is running a CAT 4 through the greater GLS/HOU area?

[Dmetal81]

Glad to see they are on the ball, this may be one of the biggest evacuations we've seen yet with the size of this system. Here we go.


HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...

.AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...
130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO
4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HU.S.0002.080910T1738Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...

...NEW INFORMATION...

NEW EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A SPECIAL
NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. RESIDENTS
IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION FROM
BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLIVAR
PENINSULA...THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND INCLUDING JAMAICA
BEACH...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...BAYOU VISTA...OMEGA BAY...TIKI
ISLAND...DICKINSON...KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES. CITIZENS MAY
ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASE
REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN INITIATED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE AND
WORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...
MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRES
PALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED IN
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION DOES NOT INCLUDE BAY CITY OR VAN VLECK.

IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET.
IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT A
SEPARATE FACILITY.

IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318.

RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO THE
SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES TO
OPEN SHELTERS.

VEHICLES SUCH AS BOATS...18 WHEELERS...TRAILERS...OR SECOND CARS
CAN BE PARKED AT THE MATAGORDA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. IF YOU PARK
YOUR PROPERTY THERE...PLEASE BE AWARE IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.

THE SWING BRIDGES AT MATAGORDA AND SARGENT WILL BE PERMANENTLY
CLOSED AT 6 PM THURSDAY WHICH MEANS YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PASS
OVER THE BRIDGES PAST THAT TIME.

THE EVACUATIONS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY MUST BE COMPLETED BY 6 PM
THURSDAY. PUBLIC SERVICES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE IN THESE AREAS
AFTER THIS TIME FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. PERSONS WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EVACUATION CAN CALL 979-244-5318.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THE FOLLOWING TIDE LEVELS ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE LEVELS ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN THESE LEVELS MAY BE INCREASED.

TIDE LEVELS WILL EXCEED 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TIDE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 12 TO 18 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 7 TO 10 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES - 4 TO 8 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY - 4 TO 8 FEET

...WINDS...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND...25 TO 35
MPH COAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM CDT.

$$

[lrak]

this is Gustav, and I had a blast, so if it goes way North you bet I'll be out there cpd!

[tolakram]

IMHO, I think the NHC has done a good job this season, I said it before, and I still stand by it.

Well let me comment on that. The NHC does a great job, no doubt, but the model consensus for Gustav was excellent while for Ike after 48 hours it's pretty bad. They are saying that loud and clear. It doesn't make them bad, it just means the models don;t have a strong handle on what Ike will do down the road. So in this case doubting the current 3+ day track is perfectly reasonable in my opinion, no one knows.

[cycloneye]

Local Statement from Galveston NWS.

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...

.AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...
130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO
4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HU.S.0002.080910T1738Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...

...NEW INFORMATION...

NEW EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A SPECIAL
NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. RESIDENTS
IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION FROM
BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLIVAR
PENINSULA...THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND INCLUDING JAMAICA
BEACH...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...BAYOU VISTA...OMEGA BAY...TIKI
ISLAND...DICKINSON...KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES. CITIZENS MAY
ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASE
REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN INITIATED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE AND
WORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...
MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRES
PALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED IN
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION DOES NOT INCLUDE BAY CITY OR VAN VLECK.

IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET.
IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT A
SEPARATE FACILITY.

IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318.

RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO THE
SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES TO
OPEN SHELTERS.

VEHICLES SUCH AS BOATS...18 WHEELERS...TRAILERS...OR SECOND CARS
CAN BE PARKED AT THE MATAGORDA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. IF YOU PARK
YOUR PROPERTY THERE...PLEASE BE AWARE IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.

THE SWING BRIDGES AT MATAGORDA AND SARGENT WILL BE PERMANENTLY
CLOSED AT 6 PM THURSDAY WHICH MEANS YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PASS
OVER THE BRIDGES PAST THAT TIME.

THE EVACUATIONS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY MUST BE COMPLETED BY 6 PM
THURSDAY. PUBLIC SERVICES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE IN THESE AREAS
AFTER THIS TIME FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. PERSONS WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EVACUATION CAN CALL 979-244-5318.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THE FOLLOWING TIDE LEVELS ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE LEVELS ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN THESE LEVELS MAY BE INCREASED.

TIDE LEVELS WILL EXCEED 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TIDE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 12 TO 18 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 7 TO 10 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES - 4 TO 8 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY - 4 TO 8 FEET

...WINDS...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND...25 TO 35
MPH COAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM CDT.

$$

[pojo]

WOW I just used that recon overlay for the first time.. that's phenominal! I think I'm in love!

Pojo, if you see this.. please pass on that whoever implimented this proggie on google earth has my undying devotion! Never thought my recon addiction could be taken to another whole new level.

Its one of our Wx officers that wrote the software to decode and track recon.

[Txdivermom]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?

I'll tell you what you do. You get on the gov. provided bus and you stay in a SHELTER, not a HOTEL. You take the MRE that the govt provides and the bottled water and you don't complain that it's not a hotel meal in a restaurant.

[bayoubebe]

IMHO, I think the NHC has done a good job this season, I said it before, and I still stand by it.

Well let me comment on that. The NHC does a great job, no doubt, but the model consensus for Gustav was excellent while for Ike after 48 hours it's pretty bad. They are saying that loud and clear. It doesn't make them bad, it just means the models don;t have a strong handle on what Ike will do down the road. So in this case doubting the current 3+ day track is perfectly reasonable in my opinion, no one knows.

I totally agree. I think they are doing the BEST they can do given the nature of this storm and everything that goes into play with it.
Not an easy task, that's for sure.

[Stormcenter]

IMHO, I think the NHC has done a good job this season, I said it before, and I still stand by it.

Well let me comment on that. The NHC does a great job, no doubt, but the model consensus for Gustav was excellent while for Ike after 48 hours it's pretty bad. They are saying that loud and clear. It doesn't make them bad, it just means the models don;t have a strong handle on what Ike will do down the road. So in this case doubting the current 3+ day track is perfectly reasonable in my opinion, no one knows.

Actually they've sounded pretty confident except for days 4 and 5 when Ike will be
already inland. As I've said before these guys know their business. Who are we to question it?

[tolakram]

[SMNederlandTX]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?

I'll tell you what you do. You get on the gov. provided bus and you stay in a SHELTER, not a HOTEL. You take the MRE that the govt provides and the bottled water and you don't complain that it's not a hotel meal in a restaurant.

Exactly. How dare anyone gripe about the cost of something when there are alternatives available? Yea, it isn't very glamorous to stay in a shelter, but if you only make $1,000 a month, then you shouldn't be use to the glamorous life. When there are lives involved, I think it is well worth evacuating. If you do not have the money, there are other ways, they have been telling everyone if you need help getting out, they will help. There is no excuse.

[lrak]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?

I'll tell you what you do. You get on the gov. provided bus and you stay in a SHELTER, not a HOTEL. You take the MRE that the govt provides and the bottled water and you don't complain that it's not a hotel meal in a restaurant.

Hurricane Allen put me and my family in a shelter and no complaints except they didn't have any A1 sauce for my steak.

Have any of you people ever camped or been w/o a TV for over 24hrs

[stormywaves]

BAY CITY ISD: Closed Thursday and Friday
BOLING ISD: Closed Through Friday
BRAZOSPORT ISD: Closed Through Friday
EDNA ISD: Closed Through Friday
GANADO ISD: Closed Through Friday
HOUSTON ISD: All athletic events and field trips cancelled through Sunday
INDUSTRIAL ISD [WEB]: Closed Through Friday
MATAGORDA ISD: Closed Through Friday
PALACIOS ISD: No classes will be held Thursday through Monday. Staff will report on Monday.
VAN VLECK ISD: Closed Thursday and Friday

Hi I am very new. Here for good information! Helping anyway I can....

[tolakram]

Actually they've sounded pretty confident except for days 4 and 5 when Ike will be
already inland. As I've said before these guys know their business. Who are we to question it?

from the NHC disco...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

[Pebbles]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?

What do you mean 'don't have the resources' there are resources just not what people want to use.

How about less then that amount, with a kid and 6 month pregnant. Yes, that was me, so have room to talk... it's called the red cross. Call them and go to a shelter. Doesn't cost you anything unless you need to drive a bit inland (and honestly you don't have to drive that very far people!) It's not comfortable but it saves you money. Specially if you don't have it.

Hey better yet, like me at AGAIN 6 months pregnant, donate a bit of your time to them to help others in a down situation. They don't ask for much... just a couple hours here or there if you can spare them.

Going to be downright nasty now, but I'm tired of hearing this griping. But having been in an extreme poverty situation for a couple years while being a single mom with no family support, while putting myself through school. There are very few people who are in this situation that can't help themselves within reason. But the biggest whining I see, is often from fairly healthy people in the low poverty level... they want to be 'taken care of' by others (thought they won't admit to it). Get off your lazy butt and FIND YOUR FREE RESOURCES and suck it up and deal with it.

You are CHOOSING to drive several hundred miles away.
You are CHOOSING to stay at an expensive hotel.
You are CHOOSING to miss MORE work/pay by going that far away.

I'm not giving anyone here a bit of pity that wants a 'pretty vacation evacuation' on the governments dime. Your protecting your/your family's life, not going on a government paid field trip.

Edited for typos