ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[ROCK]

I hope this is an outlier. Looks like all the other models look to have fallen near Matagorda Bay.

Looks like the new upper air data was factored in..and the GFDL has a very very good track record at 60 hrs out.

Hmm, I wonder what is it going to take for the Mayor of Galveston to pull the trigger?

[jasons2k]

I hope this is an outlier.

I hope so. Anyway I'm not worried.....I know the GFDL's history.

You need to be.

[Sanibel]

We are still in GFDL's accuracy range for Ike at this distance. GFDL's history with Ike was nailing trends in advance. This is the second model "wavelength" I was talking about now showing up. GFDL leads with its tail so it is definitely taking the trough into consideration. This is now a tough nut because GFDL has already overblown a trough recurve west of Florida with Ike. The second wavelength is now a poleward rightward influence instead of an under-ridge influence that GFDL excelled at. I have a feeling they'll err on the safe side and you'll be hearing of an evacuation of Houston shortly.

[Stormcenter]

Fighting over mileage between cities means one thing-STORM IS COMING.

UK Met went south and GFDL goes north....Goodness. Still no consensus and we are 72 hours out.

As the NHC has been saying for 2 days now...the middle TX coast.

[ROCK]

what do you consdier High island?....Bolivar penisula is what I consider High Island...

the town of High Island is located ~30 miles from Port Bolivar.. you gotta drive through Port Bolivar, then Crystal Beach, through Gilcrest, then you reach High Island. You think its somewhere else?[/quote]


PM me and we can discuss further.....model thread...

[Stormcenter]

We are still in GFDL's accuracy range for Ike at this distance. GFDL's history with Ike was nailing trends in advance. This is the second model "wavelength" I was talking about now showing up. GFDL leads with its tail so it is definitely taking the trough into consideration. This is now a tough nut because GFDL has already overblown a trough recurve west of Florida with Ike. The second wavelength is now a poleward rightward influence instead of an under-ridge influence that GFDL excelled at. I have a feeling they'll err on the safe side and you'll be hearing of an evacuation of Houston shortly.

Excellent post Sanibel!
What concerns me is the Friday evening landfall. That's a little over 2 days away!

[dwg71]

We are still in GFDL's accuracy range for Ike at this distance. GFDL's history with Ike was nailing trends in advance. This is the second model "wavelength" I was talking about now showing up. GFDL leads with its tail so it is definitely taking the trough into consideration. This is now a tough nut because GFDL has already overblown a trough recurve west of Florida with Ike. The second wavelength is now a poleward rightward influence instead of an under-ridge influence that GFDL excelled at. I have a feeling they'll err on the safe side and you'll be hearing of an evacuation of Houston shortly.

I dont think they will base the decison on one run of GFDL, I thin they will make a call after 4PM advisory. If euro swings east, I think track moves north, if it moves south near current landfall track by NHC, they leave track as is and discount GFDL until more move over to confirm.

[Stormcenter]

I hope this is an outlier.

I hope so. Anyway I'm not worried.....I know the GFDL's history.

You need to be.

Thanks for the making me feel better.

[micktooth]

Gang this is the MODELS THREAD not the Texas Geography thread, please, we are looking here for model info and interpretation. Thank you!

[dwg71]

Anybody got the HWRF??

[southerngale]

Gang this is the MODELS THREAD not the Texas Geography thread, please, we are looking here for model info and interpretation. Thank you!

Ditto. PLEASE stay on topic. There's a discussion thread and an obs/prep thread.

[Johnny]

As AFM pointed out (the voice of reason) people from Matagorda to Galveston Island could be the highest threat area. If the ECMWF holds and the HWRF falls in line, everyone on the upper Texas coast better be prepared. Batten down the hatches boys in girls...we got uh biggen uh comin!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF landfall in Central Texas Coast.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

HWRF shifted north also.......ECM shifts north its game on as the NHC will have no choice but to shift the cone over...

[Wx_Warrior]

Matagorda Bay

[HouTXmetro]

Yes North shift by HWRF into Matagorda Bay. Next couple of runs will be crucial by all models.. Period.

[shah8]

HWRF has a *very* sharp recurve-thingamajiggy. The end of the plot just plain looks weird, because it looks so much like a Florida recurve.

[Wx_Warrior]

Voluntary evacuations for portions of Galveston County and Bolivar Peninsula.

[gboudx]

Voluntary evacuations for portions of Galveston County and Bolivar Peninsula.

Just an fyi, I posted an update from Lidner in the top thread. He mentions all the current evac plans.

[Sanibel]

Ike's track has consistently come back south after these north shifts. So if GFDL goes east of Houston I would worry about it dragging the consensus and the track over Houston.