ATL: IKE Discussion

[TexWx]

"Not even close...This has 10 knots of northwestly shear right now. But pretty good outflow out of all quads, so it is not to unfavorable. In 2005 the loop current had amazing strength, so it could form monster storms. This years loop is very weak indeed; I doubt a cat5 could form in the gulf this year(At least not like 2005 could)."


steering i mean.

[dwg71]

Matagorda Bay still is model consensous sans GFDL.

Euro?? Anybody, like I said if it shifts south, I'll throw hands up.

[Weatherfreak000]

In fact....i'd argue this storm has slowed yet still since last night...if they claim it was moving around 8mph...i'd argue it looks less then that now.


Certainly the consensus is that's NOT good for the Upper Texas coast...but i'm inclined to wonder as the storm wobbles and strengthens and the ridge builds back in...how is this storm going to accelerate? I was under the impression typically storms accelerate quicker through weaknesses (Ala Gustav) rather then race across High pressure within the GOM.

This is all very relevent to the track of course...very foreboding news. But since the GFS is currently dismissing the Trough as a factor I have to wonder if we're either going to see the GFS return to form (As it has been pitiful for Ike) or Bust yet again as it did for other storms this season and the trough picks Ike up.


Certainly alot of forecasting questions are going to be answered for me with this storm... but I think what i'm going to gather most is simply this: forecasting much like activity during a season seems to peak in difficulty as the peak of the season draws near.


Ex: July pattern is typically High pressure..

August is fairly a balanced blend of Strong ridges and Averagely strong troughs.

September sees Average ridges (not the case this year) with Strong Troughs

And October onward sees very weak Ridges with very strong troughs.


Just figured i'd post where the general formula is based here (according to myself) which is exactly why this is the hardest, most frustrating time of the year.

[stormywaves]

BAY CITY ISD: Closed Thursday and Friday
BOLING ISD: Closed Through Friday
BRAZOSPORT ISD: Closed Through Friday
EDNA ISD: Closed Through Friday
GANADO ISD: Closed Through Friday
HOUSTON ISD: All athletic events and field trips cancelled through Sunday
INDUSTRIAL ISD [WEB]: Closed Through Friday
MATAGORDA ISD: Closed Through Friday
PALACIOS ISD: No classes will be held Thursday through Monday. Staff will report on Monday.
VAN VLECK ISD: Closed Thursday and Friday

Hi I am very new. Here for good information! Helping anyway I can....

Welcome to storm2k.Good information that you posted about closures of schools.

Thanks!

[KWT]

Also the western quadrant does seem to be weakening a little bit, probably in response to the big convective blow up in the eastern quadrant just recently.

Looks like something of a dry slot forming inbetween the central core and the outer convection as well right now.

I'd guess slow organisation but the winds may be catching up now as well...

[Stratosphere747]

Matagorda Bay still is model consensous sans GFDL.

Euro?? Anybody, like I said if it shifts south, I'll throw hands up.

It's closer to the northern edge of Matagorda Bay.

[Stormcenter]

No way this pulls a rita does he???

I mean isnt the set up eerily similar a land fall south of houston 72 hours away and then a big shift in models. If he slows enough it could happen.

If you follow some of us that don't ever try and hype each and every event.

This setup has been our biggest fear.

I was referring to a SW to Central LA hit?? If GFDL is accurate as many on here have jumped on a model that is 200 miles from the point of the last run, couldn't hit shift another 150 miles in the next 2 to 3 days

I believe I have a better chance of winning the Texas Lottery. You know what I sure could use the money.

[Sabanic]

I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.

I don't believe Ike makes it that far north.

Ike's full of surprises

[bighaben]

I find it hard to believe Houston isn't gearing up right now with evacuations, this storm is dangerously close...Galveston has only made a voluntary evacuation on the west end where there is no protection of a sea wall...it's rather absurd, I hope officials haven't become complacent with this storm and its history of causing officials to call for unnecessary evacuations and state of emergencies...any one have a county count for how many state of emergencies have been called for this storm? Texas called 88.

[dwg71]

Any Met want to comment on Trough in NW and whether or not it is cutting off the ULL??

[SoupBone]

Any Met want to comment on Trough in NW and whether or not it is cutting off the ULL??

Can you post some graphics as to what you are referring to?

[Starburst]

Closures

Agua Dulce ISD
will cancel classes Thursday and Friday, September 11th and 12th. Classes are scheduled to resume on Monday, September 15th, unless further notification.

Beeville ISD
will be closed Thursday and Friday, September 11 and 12 due to Hurricane Ike. Please stay tuned for more information regarding Monday, September 15.

Corpus Christi ISDAll classes scheduled for Thursday, September 11, and Friday, September 12, have been canceled. Classes will resume as soon as possible following the passing of Hurricane Ike. Please stay tuned to local media and the CCISD web site, http://www.ccisd.us for the latest information.

Driscoll ISD
will be closed on Thursday, 9/11, and Friday, 9/12.

Flour Bluff ISD
All classes have been canceled for Thursday, 9/11, and Friday, 9/12. All athletic events have also been canceled.

Ingleside ISD
will be closed this Thursday and Friday due to Hurricane Ike. Classes will resume Monday if utilities are up and running.

Incarnate Word Academywill be closed on Thursday, 9/11, and Friday, 9/12.

Mathis ISD
schools will close on Thursday, September 11, and Friday, September 12. Classes are scheduled to resume on Monday, September 15, unless otherwise notified.


Corpus Christi Special Needs Evacuations
Call 2-1-1 for transportation scheduling to a staging area

[jasons2k]

I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.

I don't believe Ike makes it that far north.

Ike's full of surprises

Instead of fueling the fire, would you post a link of something, anything to support a landfall there other than a "surprise"??

People are going to start really looking to this board for hard information not sensationalism so let's please stop with empty promises.

Some of the same poeple now calling for a LF well east of Houston just yesterday were hoping for Mexico.

[stormywaves]

abc13.com Houston Weather Blog
by Chief Meteorologist Tim Heller
With video forecasts updated throughout the day, 7 days a week on the right side of the blog.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHC's Bill Read: Expect more shifts
I was a little surprised last night when the National Hurricane Center shifted Ike's forecast track 125 miles to the south. That's a pretty big adjustment. But as I noted in the Houston Weather Blog, the computer guidance had also shifted southward. Today, the models are back to the north again. And so is the forecast track. The late afternoon update shifts the track closer to Matagorda Bay. The forecast cone is from Sabine Pass to just south of Brownsville.

I sent Bill Read, Director of NHC, an email about last night's big change. I wrote, "I hope you're right."

Bill responded, "Expect more shifts. Anytime we have a trough in the west the challenge of when to recurve the Tropical Cyclone exists. It makes the 4 and 5 day forecasts very noisy model run to model run and the maddening thing is any of the solutions could be the right one."

I've known Bill for years and I have a great deal of respect for him. He's the type of guy that will respond to a TV weatherman's email even when he's very busy. He's also very aware of how much all of us along the coast are watching for even the slightest shift in the forecast track. But I have to wonder why NHC made such huge change in the forecast Monday night. With today's big shift, we're pretty much back to where we were yesterday. I can only imagine what Emergency Managers along the Gulf Coast are going through right now.

Perhaps we were spoiled by Gustav's track. NHC centered the forecast cone on Morgan City five days out and didn't waver much from there. And that's where Gustav made landfall.

Regardless of where this storm makes landfall along the Texas coast, we're likely going to feel some effects here in the Houston-Galveston area. Bill noted in his email to me, "This storm is very large. We have had squalls all day over 200 miles north of the center. And it will likely grow some more in the Gulf as it moves northwest."

Some of the outer rain bands could reach us as early as Friday. Watch out for tornadoes in some of those storms as well. The increasing winds ahead of Ike could also push some bigger swells this way along the Gulf coast. Landfall will probably be early Saturday. The type of weather we get then will depend on where the storm hits


I am new so hello....very very much a novice but I have been reading you guys have the best information! I thought you might find this interesting!

[dwg71]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-wv.html

Look at ULL near central Cali, does it seperate itself from the trough making the trough come in more shallow or does it stay intact and erode ridge of HP, to me it looks iffy, but could see that cold be seperating itself.

[KatDaddy]

Cant help but see the Rita II model shuffle. The W Coast trough looks to be moving toward the SW US much fast than IKE moving WNW toward Texas. To me, it would seem to shove IKE N much sooner into Central LA. Just my take on the current situation.

[pablolopez26]

StormyWaves thanks for that great post!

[Starburst]

Evacuations


San Patricio County
In light of the current situation with Hurricane Ike nearing the Texas coastline and posing a direct threat to San Patricio County, County Judge Terry Simpson has called for a voluntary evacuation for the citizens of San Patricio County. All Special Needs Citizens are being contacted and they will start being picked up at designated points beginning at 12:00 p.m. Judge Simpson has also called for all county school closures as well.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Sabanic"][quote="Stormcenter"][quote="Lowpressure"]I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.[/quote]

I don't believe Ike makes it that far north.[/quote]

Ike's full of surprises[/quote]


C'mon...you and I know, the forecast has been pretty straight forward since Monday...right?

[dixiebreeze]

Cant help but see the Rita II model shuffle. The W Coast trough looks to be moving toward the SW US much fast than IKE moving WNW toward Texas. To me, it would seem to shove IKE N much sooner into Central LA. Just my take on the current situation.

Have to agree, katdaddy.