ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[pablolopez26]

Ike is starting to remind me of another famous September Hurricane...


The final track and landfall strength of Ike may wind up being pretty darn close to what happened 108 years ago, IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Amazing graphic. I think the Houston/Galveston area is obviously more prepared than it was back in the 1900's, either way though, Houston is going to get lots of flooding and lots of damage due to downed trees and powerlines.

I just hope the electricity is not going to go out for a long time. That would suck.

Guys, also remember to charge your cellphones before the power goes out! Please!

[Steve]

>>I just hope the electricity is not going to go out for a long time. That would suck.

While it does indeed, suck, there are cherry pickers and utility guys all over the place about 5 hours east of there right now. On one 4 mile stretch of highway on Saturday, there were over 40 utility pole trucks. That was about 5 miles north of my house. We had power back by Sunday (which admittedly was 6 days, but not the end of the world). There are also Sheriff's all the way from places as distant as Walton County, Florida to South Dakota currently cruising in Lafourche Parish. There are also hundreds of EMT people and ambulances from everywhere that are already mobilized and ready to help you guys out like they were to help us out. Just don't expect FEMA to be ready with the ice and water. Freeze gallon jugs today to give you some extra cooling capacity. Move those jugs into your refrigerator and replace them with more jugs to freeze until both coolers are full of frozen or ice-cold water jugs. This may help save some of your perishables.

*edit* - Yikes, got caught up in the model thread. Looks like the SMWFD early runs are in line for a Central-North Central SE Texas strike - as of now of course.

http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL

Steve

[srainhoutx]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

Euro is not the same. Last run was W Matagorda bay. This run is over central Matagorda county.

Your thoughts along with wxman57 are looking more likely. I hope folks in SE TX/SW LA have taken this cyclone seriously.

[A1A]

So generally anybody have any ideas on how much weight NHC will put on the GFDL run? It's getting down to the wire.

[lost cause]

Speaking for the wife and myself, we're taking it seriously here. We don't like the fact that the tracks are still nudging to the right and with less than 48 hours to go, it wouldn't be impossible for this system to take a right hand shift that might impact Galveston Island more than expected. The conditions that have been predicted for a Matagorda Bay landfall are gonna be kinda rough to begin with. I wouldn't wanna see a more right of track strike, like either the Euro or the GFDL.

We're pulling out tonight sometime and heading to a relative's place in Baton Rouge. As for others, we know of someone else who's getting out and that's about it.

[Stratosphere747]

So generally anybody have any ideas on how much weight NHC will put on the GFDL run? It's getting down to the wire.

You will find out in about an hour.

No question they will make mention of it in the upcoming discussion.

[perk]

UKMET is moved pretty significantly south, nearly south of NHC track. If he gets moving, like expected, Corpus to Matagorda is the current consensous. Actually NHC is the northern outlier at land fall atm. Sans BAMM BAMMS & CMC

I just looked at the 12z ukmet and it does'nt look to be south of the (NHC FORECAST)

[deltadog03]

The track should go east at 5p...I don't know why they wouldn't

[MONTEGUT_LA]

>>I just hope the electricity is not going to go out for a long time. That would suck.

While it does indeed, suck, there are cherry pickers and utility guys all over the place about 5 hours east of there right now. On one 4 mile stretch of highway on Saturday, there were over 40 utility pole trucks. That was about 5 miles north of my house. We had power back by Sunday (which admittedly was 6 days, but not the end of the world). There are also Sheriff's all the way from places as distant as Walton County, Florida to South Dakota currently cruising in Lafourche Parish. There are also hundreds of EMT people and ambulances from everywhere that are already mobilized and ready to help you guys out like they were to help us out. Just don't expect FEMA to be ready with the ice and water. Freeze gallon jugs today to give you some extra cooling capacity. Move those jugs into your refrigerator and replace them with more jugs to freeze until both coolers are full of frozen or ice-cold water jugs. This may help save some of your perishables.

*edit* - Yikes, got caught up in the model thread. Looks like the SMWFD early runs are in line for a Central-North Central SE Texas strike - as of now of course.

http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL

Steve

Same here, I am still without lights although they are working on it! Hot and Muggy! Ike needs to stay away. No one down here needs flooding or rain. We have many homes without a roof.

[attallaman]

There's no chance of the models making a drastic shift to the E posing a serious threat to the C/GOM region is there?

[Nederlander]

There's no chance of the models making a drastic shift to the E posing a serious threat to the C/GOM region is there?

no... at least not for now... doubtful itll happen

[rtd2]

There's no chance of the models making a drastic shift to the E posing a serious threat to the C/GOM region is there?

negative...i need good weather all weekend!

[dwg71]

best chance for Houston is a strong HP and a cut off trough.

that would send it more to the west.

Or, huge butt shear, not going to happen.

[jasons2k]

Models. thread. thank. you.

[A1A]

NHC - not much of a shift as far as the coast

[dwg71]

Most models have it beginning a north turn inland. It will all depend how strong high pressure is and can it steer it closer to W, than NW. Weaker HP, more wnw motion and earlier curve.

Any deviations from track should amplify the land fall positions.

[hurrican19]

Almost getting too late to call evacuations for the GLS/HOU/BPT/LCH areas if needed....

[Nederlander]

Almost getting too late to call evacuations for the GLS/HOU/BPT/LCH areas if needed....

24-48 hours is ample time for the Golden Triangle

[rtd2]

Almost getting too late to call evacuations for the GLS/HOU/BPT/LCH areas if needed....

24-48 hours is ample time for the Golden Triangle

agree I would say by 8am

[dwg71]

18z GFS initialized pretty accurate to position..

lets see what comes of it.

Through 72 slightly slower, landfall seems to be in same central coast vicinity