ATL: IKE Discussion

[rtd2]

When is the next update?

in about 15 minutes....

Thank you

Anyone think there will be any changes in the forecasted path?

slightly north of previous track

[cycloneye]

Lets stay on topic please.

[Sanibel]

Small surge just edged onto road on Sanibel causeway 300 miles from the center. Good 20mph-40 gusts on high bridge. Katrina was nothing compared to this over here.

Ike looks to be winding up energetically. Slightly north of trop points and not a wobble.

[Nederlander]

KEY WORD: SLIGHTLY

[attallaman]

Well I certainly hope the debris from your trimming gets picked up before Ike arrives. Otherwose you may have created a lot of missiles to be picked up by the wind.

I agree. Two days before Gustav passed by my area many of my neighbors were out doing the same. Trash pick up wasn't scheduled until the following Friday after Gustav passed by here on Monday. Fortunately all the rain we had from Gustav put extra weight on everyone's yard debris and everything stayed in place, nothing got blown around into other neighbors yards.
Much of that yard debris is still in my neighborhood though.

[Senobia]

When is the next update?

in about 15 minutes....

Thank you

Anyone think there will be any changes in the forecasted path?

Nope

I have been thinking this storm is going to catch the powers that be in SE Texas offguard.

[Brent]

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

Now predicting a Cat 4!!!!!!

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.

[Stratusxpeye]

Sorry to all the doomcasters, but I just don't see IKE getting all that much strength together in time. I think he will struggle all the way into Texas.

[ROCK]

already they put out watches....they are getting serious now..

[Cape Verde]

Well I certainly hope the debris from your trimming gets picked up before Ike arrives. Otherwose you may have created a lot of missiles to be picked up by the wind.

Actually, the crew hauled it all away that day.

[CronkPSU]

Sorry to all the doomcasters, but I just don't see IKE getting all that much strength together in time. I think he will struggle all the way into Texas.

looks like the NHC disagrees with you...got any reason to say it won't be a major hurricane?

[Stormcenter]

Sorry to all the doomcasters, but I just don't see IKE getting all that much strength together in time. I think he will struggle all the way into Texas.

I sure hope you are right.

[jasons2k]

My GR3 NHC plot just updated EAST of matagorda bay - the line, but the LF point may be west since it's a curve

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC - south of bay city - Cat 4....Waiting on link.

[rtd2]

Small surge just edged onto road on Sanibel causeway 300 miles from the center. Good 20mph-40 gusts on high bridge. Katrina was nothing compared to this over here.

Ike looks to be winding up energetically. Slightly north of trop points and not a wobble.

yeah its wind field is large and impressive could be due to larger outer eyewall closer to your area katrina didnt develope this till near landfall in LA/MS

[terrapintransit]

Me? If so, sorry... I thought I was on topic

Lets stay on topic please.

No SMNederlandTX, It was me. I take all the blame for the "Josey blob" question in that IKE satellite pic up above.....Sorry folks! There, I've apologized now back to IKE!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC WED SEP 10 2008

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

[Steve]

>>already they put out watches....they are getting serious now..

TS Warnings have been out for a while as per my prior post an hour or so ago. Those were mostly for coastal waters, but there are people who live in and on those waters as well.

Steve

[Senobia]

NHC 5pm =

THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.

[CoCo2]

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

Now predicting a Cat 4!!!!!!

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.

Interesting, because our local tv mets said we would not be put under any tropical storm warnings, just a flood warning outside the levees.