ATL: IKE Discussion

[dixiebreeze]

East of the forecast points here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC WED SEP 10 2008

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

[KWT]

Not surprising they've issued the warnings for some locations already given the very large wind field of Ike at the moment, the TS winds getting real far from the center.

Inner core still having a pretty tough time really getting going but alas its got a very long time to ramp up still and a slower ramp up means less chance of a EWRC doing us a favor...

[gboudx]

Latest from Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1822630#p1822630

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Watch from Cameron to Port Mansfield,Texas,Where is Port Mansfield located,North of Corpus Christi or south?

[gtalum]

Sorry to all the doomcasters, but I just don't see IKE getting all that much strength together in time. I think he will struggle all the way into Texas.

He's already a Cat 2 and has hundreds of miles of hot water to pass over. What makes you say it won't hit major status again?

[tolakram]

[baitism]

From looking at the WV and visible loop, I think Ike is about to start packing on a few pounds of muscle.

[TexasF6]

can someone post some buoy data and water temps? Thanks!

[Sabanic]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...

That's an extended period of time to the NW. Will be a tense next few days for LA - TX for sure

[Nederlander]

yea Sabanic... and theyve been saying its expected to build in for 3 days now

[KWT]

tolakram, thanks for putting up your tracker, Ike really does need to bend back west soon if the Galveston region is not going to be in the main threat zone...saying that the size of the hurricane plus the double eyewall structure suggests that even if the center is 60 miles to the SW of you, you may still get very similar conditions as near the eye as the eyewalls are about the same strength.

If it keeps up its current presentation probably unlikely to get above a 3 unless one of the eyewalls weakens, but it'd be a very big andf therefore dangerous 3...

Mind you the NHC forecasts a 4 now ss owhat I've just said is probably tosh!

[N2Storms]

[quote="Sabanic"]THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. [b] THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...[/b]

That's an extended period of time to the NW. Will be a tense next few days for LA - TX for sure[/quote]



We've had several sporadic downpours in the last 3 hrs. and the clouds have thickened up all day and right now the sky is black as it appears we are about to get another squall

[Stratusxpeye]

Sorry to all the doomcasters, but I just don't see IKE getting all that much strength together in time. I think he will struggle all the way into Texas.

He's already a Cat 2 and has hundreds of miles of hot water to pass over. What makes you say it won't hit major status again?

I agree he will be a major again. Cat 3 But that's all I could see out of IKE AT landfall. I didn't mean he won't be a major I just meant he's not going to bomb to CAT 5. I don't see that for the time being anyway. I could be wrong though and things can change quickly, I went through charley so I'm well aware of RI.

[TexasF6]

SST
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

[terrapintransit]

From looking at the WV and visible loop, I think Ike is about to start packing on a few pounds of muscle.

Warm GOM water = HURRICANE STEROIDS

[inda_iwall]

So what is Ike's size say in relation to Ivan or Katrina?

[CrazyC83]

So what is Ike's size say in relation to Ivan or Katrina?

Similar to Katrina, larger than Ivan I believe.

[cycloneye]

Pressure keeps dropping now more fast,from 958 mbs to 951 mbs in last pass.

[RL3AO]

951.1 mb extrapolated. Lets see if we get a drop.