ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3861 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:42 pm

18z GFS running : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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dwg71
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#3862 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:44 pm

continue posting :)

landfall seems to be the same about 1/2 way between corpus and matagorda, would need a higher resolution to say for sure, certainly not a big swing either way, but its the 18Z run
Last edited by dwg71 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3863 Postby txag2005 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:58 pm

Where is landfall on the new GFS? Looks similar to the last run to me, but its such low res I can't tell.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3864 Postby Nederlander » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:59 pm

txag2005 wrote:Where is landfall on the new GFS? Looks similar to the last run to me, but its such low res I can't tell.


I am not seeing much difference, looks slightly north of Matagorda Bay to me...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3865 Postby Sabanic » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:01 pm

Hey dwg wasn't the GFS the furthest south on it's previous run?

Wonder what it's seeing?
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#3866 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:01 pm

They are similar, but 18z looks *slightly* north, definitely not further south.
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dwg71
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3867 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:02 pm

Nederlander wrote:
txag2005 wrote:Where is landfall on the new GFS? Looks similar to the last run to me, but its such low res I can't tell.


I am not seeing much difference, looks slightly north of Matagorda Bay to me...


Image

Landfall at 66 hours.
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#3868 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:05 pm

Has anyone looked at some of the local Texas forecasts? They are forecasting winds sustained over TS force with gusts to 50-60mph+ all the way to the TX/OK border! Crazy!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3869 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:06 pm

Latest GFS trough isn't there in time. Track should solidify like NHC did with Gus. Houston could be playing it tight and dodging a bullet at the last second.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3870 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:08 pm

Sanibel wrote:Latest GFS trough isn't there in time. Track should solidify like NHC did with Gus. Houston could be playing it tight and dodging a bullet at the last second.


If it speeds up a little it will be further south. I supect that is a little slow of a run by a few hours, my opinion.
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#3871 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:10 pm

GFS 18z looks to me like its in a similar position as it was before.

The other thing is it still has well over 2 days to strengthen in the gulf, never a good thing even with a messy inner core.
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#3872 Postby dwg71 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:11 pm

If gfdl will come back in the consensous at next run, that would be nice... 8-)

one hour and 20 minutes until the most anticipated model release in the history of hurricanes!

Naah, but it will be interesting.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3873 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:13 pm

Sanibel wrote:Latest GFS trough isn't there in time. Track should solidify like NHC did with Gus. Houston could be playing it tight and dodging a bullet at the last second.


So you live by the GFS?

Trof is there in plenty of time. FYI...NHC wanted the track more east but didn't want to take a big jump just yet.

Where they hinted at putting it would give the HOU area the worst wacking since Carla

Dodging a bullet? You were saying?

Come on...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3874 Postby hicksta » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:14 pm

This looks like it could be a bad setup for galveston...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3875 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:15 pm

Notice the high is nearly gone from La...

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3876 Postby jwayne » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:15 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Latest GFS trough isn't there in time. Track should solidify like NHC did with Gus. Houston could be playing it tight and dodging a bullet at the last second.


So you live by the GFS?

Trof is there in plenty of time. FYI...NHC wanted the track more east but didn't want to take a big jump just yet.

Where they hinted at putting it would give the HOU area the worst wacking since Carla

Dodging a bullet? You were saying?

Come on...


Let me guess...Freeport?

Afraid the bullet has found its mark.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3877 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:17 pm

We'll see at 11. You are arguing with GFS not me. My position is whether GFDL is straying like it did west of Florida already or whether it is dead accurate early on as it has been with trends. GFDL is obviously less accurate when not under a strong ridge. My last word was start worrying if GFDL goes even more east.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3878 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:21 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Latest GFS trough isn't there in time. Track should solidify like NHC did with Gus. Houston could be playing it tight and dodging a bullet at the last second.


So you live by the GFS?

Trof is there in plenty of time. FYI...NHC wanted the track more east but didn't want to take a big jump just yet.

Where they hinted at putting it would give the HOU area the worst wacking since Carla

Dodging a bullet? You were saying?

Come on...


So AFM, time to earn more than your government salary on Ike. Lots of noise on this board but little knowledge most times. What are your thoughts on strength and landfall for Ike? What models or conditions should we be looking at for any tweaks to the forecast. 12z GFDL through the Galveston area -probably need a couple of more runs to nail this down but I find the GFDL has been pretty accurate. within 72 hrs
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3879 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:26 pm

ronjon wrote:
So AFM, time to earn more than your government salary on Ike. Lots of noise on this board but little knowledge most times. What are your thoughts on strength and landfall for Ike? What models or conditions should we be looking at for any tweaks to the forecast. 12z GFDL through the Galveston area -probably need a couple of more runs to nail this down but I find the GFDL has been pretty accurate. within 72 hrs


Same as the last few days. Matagorda area...Cat 3.
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#3880 Postby pablolopez26 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:30 pm

Hey all, so the GFDL has Ike coming into Galveston as a category 4 storm... The next 2 model runs do you think the other models such as the UKMET will follow suit with the GFDL? Or do you think the GFDL will nudge down a bit?

Thoughts...
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