ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Comanche]

I know this is the models thread but I need as many eyes as possible for this question. Assuming 130 MPH at landfall into Freeport area to Galveston Bay area, would it be crazy to stay? I am at 23 feet so not worried about surge really, should I worry about structural failure of my house? 2 story brick. Serious question, I would leave but by the time we gather up, I think freeways will get worse than Rita (starting tonight). Am I crazy for staying? If you don't know anything about structutral engineering, please don't answer with an opinion.

[TSmith274]

I know this is the models thread but I need as many eyes as possible for this question. Assuming 130 MPH at landfall into Freeport area to Galveston Bay area, would it be crazy to stay? I am at 23 feet so not worried about surge really, should I worry about structural failure of my house? 2 story brick. Serious question, I would leave but by the time we gather up, I think freeways will get worse than Rita (starting tonight). Am I crazy for staying? If you don't know anything about structutral engineering, please don't answer with an opinion.

Well, I can throw some Civil Engineering knowlege at your question, but where exactly do you live? Also, there are some poorly constructed 2-story brick homes out there... any hastily constructed neighborhoods built by large companies such as KB Homes that make use of limited designs and partially pre-fab construction would not be safe in my opinion. But I'd need to know exactly where you are. Still, it is smarter to be on the safe side and leave.

[rtd2]

I know this is the models thread but I need as many eyes as possible for this question. Assuming 130 MPH at landfall into Freeport area to Galveston Bay area, would it be crazy to stay? I am at 23 feet so not worried about surge really, should I worry about structural failure of my house? 2 story brick. Serious question, I would leave but by the time we gather up, I think freeways will get worse than Rita (starting tonight). Am I crazy for staying? If you don't know anything about structutral engineering, please don't answer with an opinion.

No body can give you an accurate answer w/o inspecting your house...alot of factors like age, built to codes or not and even the direction it faces.... if your even asking this you should leave! I seen houses in my neigborhood during Katrina (got 120+mph in west gulfport) with major damage and doublewide homes in the same area with less damage.... 2 factors were easily noted lack of straps on stick builts and the direction the homes sat vs wind...

[TSmith274]

I know this is the models thread but I need as many eyes as possible for this question. Assuming 130 MPH at landfall into Freeport area to Galveston Bay area, would it be crazy to stay? I am at 23 feet so not worried about surge really, should I worry about structural failure of my house? 2 story brick. Serious question, I would leave but by the time we gather up, I think freeways will get worse than Rita (starting tonight). Am I crazy for staying? If you don't know anything about structutral engineering, please don't answer with an opinion.

No body can give you an accurate answer w/o inspecting your house...alot of factors like age, built to codes or not and even the direction it faces.... if your even asking this you should leave! I seen house in my neigborhood during Katrina (got 120+mph in west gulfport) with major damage and doublewide homes in the same are with less damage 2 factors were easily noted lack of straps on stick builts and the direct the homes sat vs wind...

Well said. And looking at your area, it seems that there is an inlet that adjoins Galveston Bay. Just leave. No reason not to.

Back to models...

[jimguru]

Is there one particular model that seems historically to be more accurate than another? Just curious as I have said before I am new to the Gulf / Atlantic Storm Basin Scene.

[Nederlander]

Is there one particular model that seems historically to be more accurate than another? Just curious as I have said before I am new to the Gulf / Atlantic Storm Basin Scene.

All of them can have their good days and bad days, but it seems like GFDL, HWRF, and the GFS have a good handle generally... But nothing compares to the NHC...

[dwg71]

18Z 48 Hour ukmet is in just about the same position as 12Z 54 hour, slightly slower by a hair.

[Agua]

You can't rely on any single model: no magic bullet. I can tell you that CLP is absolutely worthless because it is simply a climatology model based upon what storms in the past in the area have done. As I understand it, it is utilized by the NHC to measure its own skill, not for prediction purposes.

Beyond that, follow NHC and look at the overall spread of the models. I know that doesn't help a lot, but that's the best I can tell you.

[dwg71]

GFDL should be available any minute, if anybody has quick access please pass along.

[jimguru]

You can't rely on any single model: no magic bullet. I can tell you that CLP is absolutely worthless because it is simply a climatology model based upon what storms in the past in the area have done. As I understand it, it is utilized by the NHC to measure its own skill, not for prediction purposes.

Beyond that, follow NHC and look at the overall spread of the models. I know that doesn't help a lot, but that's the best I can tell you.

I am new to the modeling aspect of things always been big into weather - just not the Hurricane models until recently.

All of your feedback is greatly appreciated!! So basically keep looking at the big picture and don't depend to heavily on any one single model ( some not at all ) it sounds like...

[attallaman]

You can't rely on any single model: no magic bullet. I can tell you that CLP is absolutely worthless because it is simply a climatology model based upon what storms in the past in the area have done. As I understand it, it is utilized by the NHC to measure its own skill, not for prediction purposes.

Beyond that, follow NHC and look at the overall spread of the models. I know that doesn't help a lot, but that's the best I can tell you.

Aqua would it be safe to say tonight that our part of the GOM is safe from Ike? There's nothing in the upper atmosphere that could steer Ike towards us is there? I certainly hope not.

[AL Chili Pepper]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.2 85.8 310./ 7.0
6 24.5 86.5 292./ 6.9
12 24.8 87.2 296./ 7.5
18 25.3 88.0 302./ 8.4
24 25.7 89.0 293./ 9.9
30 26.0 89.9 287./ 8.6
36 26.4 91.2 288./12.6
42 26.9 92.2 298./ 9.9
48 27.7 93.3 304./12.6
54 28.5 94.3 309./11.7
60 29.4 95.2 313./12.2
66 30.5 96.0 326./13.5
72 31.8 96.2 351./12.5
78 33.5 95.8 12./17.2
84 35.6 94.8 25./23.2
90 37.8 92.5 46./28.6
96 40.0 88.9 59./35.3
102 41.9 84.3 67./39.5
108 44.0 79.4 68./41.3
114 46.1 73.7 69./45.8
120 48.7 68.2 65./45.4
126 50.2 63.9 71./31.8

Looks like around Galveston Island if I'm looking at Google Earth right.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL Same as 12Z

[dwg71]

same exact doomsday path, maybe even a bit further west, maybe 5 miles..

[ronjon]

18Z GFDL now just east of Galveston for LF. The question is.....Does it shift further to the Tx-La border ala Rita?

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFDL now just east of Galveston for LF. The question is.....Does it shift further to the Tx-La border ala Rita?

Possible.


Nothing against Louisiana, but I kinda hope so.

[Dean4Storms]

You can't rely on any single model: no magic bullet. I can tell you that CLP is absolutely worthless because it is simply a climatology model based upon what storms in the past in the area have done. As I understand it, it is utilized by the NHC to measure its own skill, not for prediction purposes.

Beyond that, follow NHC and look at the overall spread of the models. I know that doesn't help a lot, but that's the best I can tell you.

Aqua would it be safe to say tonight that our part of the GOM is safe from Ike? There's nothing in the upper atmosphere that could steer Ike towards us is there? I certainly hope not.

The ridge should steer Ike toward Texas, but anytime you have a hurricane in the Gulf you should stay up to date on the latest info.

[caneman]

Well, well who is following who now. The GFDL has been spot on. Look out Galveston and SW Louisiana. You can tell the NHC relies heavily on them especially inside of 72 hours and for good reason. Never fixate on just one model a blend of the 2 is iusually the best. Any one tells you otherwise simply doesn't know what they're talking about. Stay safe Texans and possibly Louisiana. IkE looks to mean business. Like staring down the barrel of a shotgun.Trsut me, don't mess around and evacuate if called to.

[Storm Contractor]

I know this is the models thread but I need as many eyes as possible for this question. Assuming 130 MPH at landfall into Freeport area to Galveston Bay area, would it be crazy to stay? I am at 23 feet so not worried about surge really, should I worry about structural failure of my house? 2 story brick. Serious question, I would leave but by the time we gather up, I think freeways will get worse than Rita (starting tonight). Am I crazy for staying? If you don't know anything about structutral engineering, please don't answer with an opinion.

I would need more info to get specific but I would say if it is a Cat 4 you need to leave! I do not know the surge potential in your area but I do seem to remember Katrina was estimated near 30 feet. As far as structural failure goes there are several variables, House shape combined with exposure to the predominant wind direction, uplift pressure zones. I will say that a 2 story increases failure potential because you have more surface area! When was the house built? Strapping codes at the time...Too many variables, simple fact is you have 2 days to get somewhere much safer and I would not recomend anyone staying within a potential surge area even if they were in a concrete bunker! Fact is, you can find a new building to stay in if you were inland but if you have failure during a storm and you are surrounded by surge..... You better have some life jackets and a strong rope! EVAC and live to tell the traffic stories would be my advice!

[caneman]

Hey all, so the GFDL has Ike coming into Galveston as a category 4 storm... The next 2 model runs do you think the other models such as the UKMET will follow suit with the GFDL? Or do you think the GFDL will nudge down a bit?

Thoughts...

I wouldn't be following the UMET right now. Stick with GFDL and the Euro. Perhaps a blend off the 2. Better yet, go with the NHC as that is probably what they're doing anyhow.