ATL: IKE Discussion

[attallaman]

I have relatives living in Pasadena, TX. Should they be concerned about Ike? Might they be told to evacuate? What kind of weather might Colorado County expect to receive if Ike moves in near Galveston? I have relatives living in Columbus, TX.

[tolakram]

[Cape Verde]

Update. Jeff. Here.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1822893#p1822893

It just keeps getting bleaker for Houston and Galveston.

It's hard enough to get homeowner insurance in this area. After this, companies would have to be forced to write policies because this could be enormous.

If you're State Farm, why wouldn't you logically say, "We're not selling insurance along the Gulf Coast anymore." We'll focus on safer places like Idaho.

[x-y-no]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

Yeah, I've been offline for a while, just took a look at the latest recon obs. Crazy large TS windfield and crazy low central pressure for something with such a low top windspeed. I have to believe winds go way up overnight.

[attallaman]

I'm scared to ask but what are we looking at?

[Sihara]

My point is that we are not government property and we can make our own decisions. For those who think the government is always correct and won't make decisions for themselves, well, I pity them....

But if I think now is a good time to take a vacation to Carlsbad, New Mexico, I don't need or want the government's permission.

That's exactly right - and it's just what the authorities always tell us - take "personal responsibility." Well, the "personally responsible" thing to do is evaluate your own situation in the light of the other problem the authorities warn us of: if you stay, and get into trouble, most likely no one can come and get you. You're on your own.

Potential dangers other than surge or inland flooding: trees falling on house, medical problem that is excerbated by the falling pressures, unstable house that is vulnerable to wind. People get killed in these situations. If this describes something that could befall you, get out. But then the same authorities who tell you to take responsibility turn around and use disparaging terms like "shadow evacuees" because their evac routes don't carry the traffic.

So if you have to go, just leave early. It's not convenient but you'll be off the road when mandatory evac starts. (I may not know much about meteorology, but I do know something about evacs.)

[cpdaman]

loop current should start to work it's magic from now until 12-18 more hours.

upper level winds are co-operating.....winds will IMO respond... just give ike a lil more time

[Brent]

944 extrap.

RI in progress.

[HURAKAN]

Ike the monster.

[Weatherfreak000]

I see two trend based upon Recon.

1. Rapid Deepening...

2. STILL NW...STILL North and East and slower then the forecast points.

[Lowpressure]

quote;
I'm scared to ask but what are we looking at?[/quote]
A close up of recon passing through the storm complete with wind barbs and pressures at a fix location. Note the decrease in mb as you go NW. Storm getting stronger and pretty fast.

[Wx_Warrior]

Official: Emergency Management has issued a voluntary evacuation for low-lying areas in Hardin, Jefferson, and Orange Counties.

[ronjon]

I see two trend based upon Recon.

1. Rapid Deepening...

2. STILL NW...STILL North and East and slower then the forecast points.

I know its not the models thread, but 18Z GFDL through Galveston again - 2nd run in a row. Will it continue to shift east?

[MBryant]

Official: Emergency Management has issued a voluntary evacuation for low-lying areas in Hardin, Jefferson, and Orange Counties.

Darned. 2/3 of Orange County is low-lying.

[lisa0825]

City of Texas City says not to evacuate....

This is Texas City Emergency Management.
We are closely watching the path of Hurricane Ike.
We are aware that some evacuations are taking place in low lying areas of Galveston County.
We are recommending that the citizens of Texas City remain in their homes throughout any weather that may arrive on Friday.
In making this recommendation, we are aware that Hurricane Ike will go onshore in the Matagorda Bay area but feel that no, repeat no, evacuation is necessary .
Evacuations are occurring in some places due to flooding of low lying areas.
Again we recommend that all Texas City citizens prepare to remain in their homes during the upcoming heavy weather.
Finally, as before we make many preparations that are both visible and not. One of those visible preparations is the arrival of busses in the stadium parking lot. We are a regional hub for this type of transportation and we must deploy early to ensure they are in place should we need them. Some will begin to arrive tonite and we do not anticipate using them at present.

[Cape Verde]

Official: Emergency Management has issued a voluntary evacuation for low-lying areas in Hardin, Jefferson, and Orange Counties.

Hardin is NORTHeast of Houston! Much further from the coast.


It appears the official government policy of Houston and Harris County is to let the residents take it in the teeth.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm going to be a bit premature and say current trends are HIGHLY suggestive of a landfall near Galveston now. It may be dependent on when Ike turns back to the WNW...

Anyone in that area my prayers to you.

[FormerFlatlander]

Please don't let the lack of a "place to go" be a deterrant to evacuating. The State of Texas, with the assistance of the federal government, has spared no expense in standing up shelters for medical special needs citizens as well as the general public.

Please contact your county judge or mayor or call 211 if you need shelter information. Shelters and food service are provided without charge to all. Basic medical care is available for those in need.

One item that is being stressed as a lesson learned from past evacuations, if a citizen does not have the financial resources to pay for the gas both to their shelter destination and then to return home, they should make arrangements with their local government and 211 for the free bus transportation to the inland shelters. It is more difficult to find financial assistance for a stranded citizen without the funds to buy the gas to get themselves home

Like Greyhound says "Take the bus and leave the driving (and feeding and sheltering) to us!"

Thougts and prayers to the residents of coastal and near-coastal Texas for the next week or so. Stay dry and stay safe!

[Annie Oakley]

Ike the monster.

Uhhh-I love you Hurakan but can we refrain from the 'monster' word??? (Nervously laughing here)
In realidad-keep up the GREAT work!

[tolakram]