ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[CoCo2]

18Z GFDL now just east of Galveston for LF. The question is.....Does it shift further to the Tx-La border ala Rita?

Possible.


Nothing against Louisiana, but I kinda hope so.

Oh that's nice thing to say. Nothing against Texas, but you can have it. Louisiana can't take anymore. We are hurting pretty bad.

[dwg71]

exactly how Rita went down, lets hope we can put up hurricane shield again...

doubt it though

[AL Chili Pepper]

18Z GFDL now just east of Galveston for LF. The question is.....Does it shift further to the Tx-La border ala Rita?

Possible.


Nothing against Louisiana, but I kinda hope so.

Even a few miles east would help out tremendously, and it will be a miracle of this track is dead on accurate. I almost felt guilty after Ivan when I got my power back the next day, while parts of Baldwin and Pensacola were hammered.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z HWRF sticks with Corpus...Humm

[rockyman]

GFDL at 60 hours:


HWRF at 60 hours:

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL at 60 hours:

Cat1?!

[Winsurfer]

18Z GFDL now just east of Galveston for LF. The question is.....Does it shift further to the Tx-La border ala Rita?

Looks just West of Galveston to my uneducated eye.

[rockyman]

The GFDL is showing Cat 3 right before landfall (the 60 hours point is after landfall)

[KWT]

GFDL comes in around 110kts by the way, thats after landfall when it has weakened to a borderline 2/3.

[Air Force Met]

18Z HWRF sticks with Corpus...Humm

HWRF is NE of Pt Aransas...not Corpus. Its about 50 miles SW of where it was ay 12Z.

NHC likes to take a blend of the two...so b/w the two that puts it over W Matagorda CTY.

BUT...the HWRF initialized too far west for 6 hrs out. The GFDL was almost spot on.

[mattpetre]

AFM,

Why are initializations off by so much. This is frustrating, so many local mets here in Houston still counting on the Corpus landfall and so many in government not pulling the trigger to force anything to happen. I'm worried that in the end many people will be hurt and/or trapped on highways they didn't think they would be on for more than a few hours. Why can't we erre on the side of caution????

[Weatherfreak000]

My advice? It's very late in the game now. Stop watching the models because as of now we know the general rules of this game.


Satellite loops tell the tale.

[mattpetre]

My advice? It's very late in the game now. Stop watching the models because as of now we know the general rules of this game.


Satellite loops tell the tale.

Too early to avoid models... do you think the NHC is ignoring them?

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z HWRF sticks with Corpus...Humm

HWRF is NE of Pt Aransas...not Corpus. Its about 50 miles SW of where it was ay 12Z.

NHC likes to take a blend of the two...so b/w the two that puts it over W Matagorda CTY.

BUT...the HWRF initialized too far west for 6 hrs out. The GFDL was almost spot on.

Sorry this FL resident is not the greatest when it comes to TX geography..Trying to look at a line..my bad

[Frank P]

My advice? It's very late in the game now. Stop watching the models because as of now we know the general rules of this game.


Satellite loops tell the tale.

Satellites tell you where its been, not necessarily where it is going to go... models are critical in determining forecast..

[RBDnhm]

Using Google and lat/long from forecast, it is Jamaica Beach, Galveston, just west of the sea wall. I think that is right.

18Z GFDL now just east of Galveston for LF. The question is.....Does it shift further to the Tx-La border ala Rita?

Looks just West of Galveston to my uneducated eye.

[HurricaneRobert]

AFM,

Why are initializations off by so much. This is frustrating, so many local mets here in Houston still counting on the Corpus landfall and so many in government not pulling the trigger to force anything to happen. I'm worried that in the end many people will be hurt and/or trapped on highways they didn't think they would be on for more than a few hours. Why can't we erre on the side of caution????

Oh, because you know, Gustav and Rita were total nonevents.

[Weatherfreak000]

My advice? It's very late in the game now. Stop watching the models because as of now we know the general rules of this game.


Satellite loops tell the tale.

Satellites tell you where its been, not necessarily where it is going to go... models are critical in determining forecast..

What do you need to know? lol. The story hasn't changed in DAYS.


There is a big ridge that is gonna send this storm in a general WNW/NW direction for the next 72 hours....the only dramatic shift in this logic is the trough..which the models AREN'T seeing.

That's exactly my point...models are bunk. Watch the storm.

[Ixolib]

...If you don't know anything about structutral engineering, please don't answer with an opinion.

Don't know diddly about structural engineering - so, sorry, but I'm answering anyway...

At 23' above MSL, you're not high enough to discount the possibility of surge. It's not until you're at about 40 feet that you can begin disregarding the surge issue - especially with a cat 3+. Therefore, who cares about structural engineering!!

The old adage, "hide from the wind, run from the water" absolutely spells out your issue...

No opinion, just fact. BTDT...

[Air Force Met]

Most models have shifted north at 00Z.

All models now b/w Aransas Pass and GLS.