ATL: IKE Discussion

[Deputy Van Halen]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Well, the reason is obvious. It's because I'm in Texas City, and "they" are out to get me!

I'm fully expecting a traffic snarl to rival Rita's tomorrow. Does anyone know the best website to monitor current traffic conditions? Is it Google Maps, or is there someplace better?

[lisa0825]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Assuming that statement was genuine, they clearly spoke too definitively too early. I did check their website and it does not have any recent updates. They do mention a text message notification system. The statement may have come from that.

I would say to anyone in that area that they should not take that as the final word on whether to evacuate.

https://www.nticonnectcty.com/messagebo ... 365322.wav

[Derek Ortt]

this has been bothering me all day, people keep calling double ring but I haven't seen any recon reports saying there was a double ring

see my wind plot on page 37 of the recon thread

there is a clear double wind maxima with very calm winds between the two eyewalls

[PTPatrick]

"Again we recommend that all Texas City citizens prepare to remain in their homes during the upcoming heavy weather."

If this thing hits even a hair north east of matagorda bay as a cat 4 with hurr force 100 miles out, this will go down in history as the understatement of the year...and if it hits Freeport or eastward as cat 4 an emergency manager will be flipping burgers for the rest of his life.


PS glad my aunt doesnt live in bay city anymore...NHC has the eye going right over it...ouch

[baygirl_1]

The thing I hate most about this storm is that it will make landfall at night. A big hurricane is scary during the day when you can see the debris headed toward your house.

At night, you're tired and can't see squat. All you can do is hear. And when the power goes out, you're really on your own.

That's what this is setting up to be.

And the affected ones, like I expect to be, won't be able to get into this forum for any information. It's not a good feeling.

You are so correct: it is scarier in the dark. Be sure to have a radio with batteries. When the power goes down and you can't access the internet or cable TV, the radio is going to be your link to news and others. I know around here the TV stations have partnered with local radio stations to broadcast during emergency situation. When you're in your safe room, hunkered down during the worst of the storm, it is good to hear those people on the radio when the storm is raging outside. You're all in my family's thoughts and prayers. Do everything you can to stay safe, y'all!

[MBryant]

Disregard my post abut evac time. I was thinking today was thursday when i posted it...need to get more sleep. In any case...if they call mandatory evac tomorrow morning that are still looking at 36 hours. I will admit that many folks in the houston area away from coast could probably stay put if they dont have flooding issues or weak homes. In Rita too many people tried to leave. Just like with Miami. You have to have a head about you as FLorida is only so wide and only so many roads go north.

SO... why is the Mayor of Galveston saying it's too late for mandatory evacs?

All times are from anticipated Gale force (Tropical Storm force winds)

Galveston 72 hours
Houston 90 hours
Most other surrounding Counties 60 - 72 hours

With Gales expected 200 miles in advance of landfall, there just isn't time. There was too much certainty about a South Texas hit when the decisions needed to be made. Now it's CYA and prayer time.

[Ixolib]

Unfortunately, the large wind radii will still produce a very significant surge in excess of +15-20 feet in some localized locations

If I were anyone in the area at and to the right side of landfall, I'd ignore the 15'-20' and instead, change that to read 25'-30'. Besides, what does "localized location" really mean anyway!!!!! I think that's about the dumbest part of a hurricane warning that was ever written.

Everyone in the landfall area should just consider themselves to be "localized" and react accordingly, that's the best advise I can offer....

[caneman]

Let me share a quick story with Texans who don't think a 20 , 30 or 50 mile jog can happen. Charley was suppose to hit us, I warned my Brother who lived farther South in Cape Coral that he should prepare just in case. He was one of the, oh it never happens to us types, I just pulled up the news this morning and they didn't say anything about, jaded type from previous storms that were suppose to hit but didn't. When the strorm turned he called me terrified, wondering what to do. So, please remember, be prepared and know that if you choose to stay the storm could turn your way. Further, if a storm does turn away and you only get minimal affect, guard yourself against being complacent for the next one. It's normal to get compacent because of the frustration of getting ready and everything else but you have to fight thru that and know it's just a price you must pay to live near the coast. God Bless..

[x-y-no]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Assuming that statement was genuine, they clearly spoke too definitively too early. I did check their website and it does not have any recent updates. They do mention a text message notification system. The statement may have come from that.

I would say to anyone in that area that they should not take that as the final word on whether to evacuate.

https://www.nticonnectcty.com/messagebo ... 365322.wav

Thank you. I wasn't doubting your veracity, but it's good to have the official message.

I understand their motivation to avoid unnecessary panic, but on the other hand they seem to be going rather too far in the opposite direction.

[PTPatrick]

FROM CNN:

Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc issued a warning to residents of the city's West End, citing forecasters' estimates that the area could get tides of 6 feet above normal if the storm arrives there. The West End is the area of Galveston most susceptible to flooding, LeBlanc said.


IS THIS A JOKE....6 feet with a cat 4 "arriving there"...more like 16+

[MiamiensisWx]

Let me share a quick story with Texans who don't think a 20 , 30 or mile jog can happen. Charley was suppose to hit us, I warned my Brother who lived farther South in Cape Coral that he should prepare just in case. He was one of the, oh it never happens to us types, I just pulled up the news this morning and they didn't say anything about, jaded type from previous storms that were suppose to hit but didn't. When the strorm turned he called me terrified, wondering what to do. So, please remember, be prepared and know that if you choose to stay the storm could turn your way. Further, if a storm does turn away and you only get minimal affect, guard yourself against being complacent for the next one. It's normal to get compacent because of the frustration of getting ready and everything else but you have to fight thru that and knowit's just a price you must pay to live near the coast. God Bless..

In regards to the bolded portion, it should be noted that locations farther south and east were situated well within the five day forecast cone, so the wise residents definitely did not ignore that facet. In addition, Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte were located within the Hurricane Watch/Warning as well, so any lack of preparations would have been inexcusable. Fortunately, many people were obviously attuned to the threat.

Ike's slower short term movement may result in a landfall much closer to Galveston, as a sharper turn would be induced just offshore.

[hurricanetrack]

Great site for statements, etc.

http://www.hurricaneikeresources.org

[Ixolib]

FROM CNN:

Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc issued a warning to residents of the city's West End, citing forecasters' estimates that the area could get tides of 6 feet above normal if the storm arrives there. The West End is the area of Galveston most susceptible to flooding, LeBlanc said.


IS THIS A JOKE....6 feet with a cat 4 "arriving there"...more like 16+

Only 16??? I'm thinking more like 26+!!!!!!! Of course, I suppose the City Manager knows his city better than anyone so perhaps he's right?????

[abajan]

Super, super, super low pressure with no winds. Mind-boggling.

When are these winds going to catch up? They've been lagging way behind since he's first touched Cuba.

Since Ike is such a large system, it has a lot of inertia. My guess is that the winds will eventually catch up. It's like a man standing on a dock and trying his level best to push a cruise ship away from the dock. If he keeps pushing (assuming there's no wind and the water is perfectly calm) the ship will eventually move.

[pablolopez26]

I think this is going to be another mess in the making.

All Ike has to do is one little move to the east and Galveston is right on the dirty side of this storm that encompasses the ENTIRE Gulf.

I sincerely hope that this non-evacuation doesnt come back and bite some people in the butt.

[caneman]

Let me share a quick story with Texans who don't think a 20 , 30 or mile jog can happen. Charley was suppose to hit us, I warned my Brother who lived farther South in Cape Coral that he should prepare just in case. He was one of the, oh it never happens to us types, I just pulled up the news this morning and they didn't say anything about, jaded type from previous storms that were suppose to hit but didn't. When the strorm turned he called me terrified, wondering what to do. So, please remember, be prepared and know that if you choose to stay the storm could turn your way. Further, if a storm does turn away and you only get minimal affect, guard yourself against being complacent for the next one. It's normal to get compacent because of the frustration of getting ready and everything else but you have to fight thru that and knowit's just a price you must pay to live near the coast. God Bless..

In regards to the bolded portion, it should be noted that locations farther south and east were situated well within the five day forecast cone, so the wise residents definitely did not ignore that facet. In addition, Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte were located within the Hurricane Watch/Warning as well, so any lack of preparations would have been inexcusable. Fortunately, many people were obviously attuned to the threat.

Ike's slower short term movement may result in a landfall much closer to Galveston, as a sharper turn would be induced just offshore.

It is inexcusable but it is also human nature. NExt time one threatens Tampa Bay, I can assure not nearly as many people will reposnd because of the cried wolf nature of people andthe enormous financial and time expense.

[cycloneye]

The State of Texas has asked Tarrant County to open shelters for evacuees leaving the Texas Coast in anticipation of Hurricane Ike.

“By the end of the business day, Tarrant County expects to have 5 shelters open in Euless, Fort Worth and Haltom City to accommodate up to 500 people,” said Tarrant County Emergency Management Coordinator Melissa Patterson. “Additional shelters are available should the County be required to take in more evacuees.”

By 6 p.m. today, the City of Fort Worth is scheduled to open the Reception Hub for Tarrant County, where evacuees will be processed and routed to shelters throughout the county, she said. It is located at the Wilkerson-Greines Activity Center, 5101 C.A. Roberson Blvd., off Interstate 20 at the Wichita Exit. (MAPSCO 92-T).

http://hurricaneikeresources.org/

[Frank P]

You were swimming in Katrina, weren't you?

Well... Wading. Frank was staying with some folks right up the street from me and was able to stay dry during landfall if I recall correctly - it was a bit later that his nightmare kicked in big time!!

Boy, this hole Ike thing is making knots in my stomach for those in its path... what really bothers me about this set up is the storm surge potential.... 20 foot of storm surge will destroy everthing in its path... it is unforgiving period... and if present trends continue Ike is going to push a tremendous surge where the center goes inland and to the east for some distance... Katrina was ~75-80 miles from Mobile and they still had a very high surge for being so far away from the eye.. hopefully shear or dry air or a higher source will not let this happen...

[lisa0825]

Thank you. I wasn't doubting your veracity, but it's good to have the official message.

I understand their motivation to avoid unnecessary panic, but on the other hand they seem to be going rather too far in the opposite direction.

I completely agree with you. And the outrage will be massive if they are wrong.

[PTPatrick]

26 seems High...remember that the coastal geography is differnt than LA or Mississippi. Not saying it CANT happen though. Think about the angle of approach. It cant pile water up against the shore the day before landfall like a storm can hitting the NGOM from due south. Actually this could push water away, or at least parallel to it, from the coast until pretty close to landfall. However...high waves would still propagate westward to the coast, but just not a pile up of water.


Also Shelf drop off is much closer to shore in coast texas than the NGOM and that affects it too. If you have ever seen the difference between the wave heights on a Mississippi barrier island versus those of galveston island you would know what I mean.