ATL: IKE Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

I think this is going to be another mess in the making.

All Ike has to do is one little move to the east and Galveston is right on the dirty side of this storm that encompasses the ENTIRE Gulf.

I sincerely hope that this non-evacuation doesnt come back and bite some people in the butt.

1) Texas is a far better organized state than LA today and FAR better than LA was in 2005.
2) I do think they need to be moving/evac'ing residents
3) Any sort of major hurricane or even cat1/2 storm making landfall in houston is a major disaster just by its nature. The houston area is huge with 6 million residents.

[Weatherfreak000]

Unbelievable that Ike is STILL moving to the Northwest

Turn to the WNW has not come to fruition yet.

[Melly]

What is really aggervating me about all this, is we don't know where for sure it is giong, just some where on the Gulf Coast of Texas... For us who are poor and don't have the money to evacuate, we have to wait for the last minute, so I'm sick to my stomach wondering...

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

I don't like to see local officials operating more off of the black 'center line' than the overall cone. If you are in the cone, prepare as if the eye will go over you...thus would the 6' above normal statement apply to galveston with a direct landfall?

FROM CNN:

Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc issued a warning to residents of the city's West End, citing forecasters' estimates that the area could get tides of 6 feet above normal if the storm arrives there. The West End is the area of Galveston most susceptible to flooding, LeBlanc said.


IS THIS A JOKE....6 feet with a cat 4 "arriving there"...more like 16+

[Jessie]

The thing I hate most about this storm is that it will make landfall at night. A big hurricane is scary during the day when you can see the debris headed toward your house.

At night, you're tired and can't see squat. All you can do is hear. And when the power goes out, you're really on your own.

That's what this is setting up to be.

And the affected ones, like I expect to be, won't be able to get into this forum for any information. It's not a good feeling.

good point.. I am convinced had Katrina hit at night the death toll along the MS coast would be been much much much higher... I experienced Camille at night and it was quite terrifying ...

I also experience Frederic at night. It was very very loud, but the house didn't shake. However, the sliding glass windows seemed a bit unsteady. Do board your windows. Most people in non flood areas make out fine --- that's probably why they are not issuing evacuations in many areas of Houston.

[MBryant]

Just a question, I'm new here well I joined during Gustav, and was in mandatory evac for that, I'm in Southeast Texas the Port Author area, the area who was slammed with Rita, 3yrs and 2 weeks ago from today.

I am just curious, should the southeast texas area evacuate? I'm not hearing much about my area, but On the weather channel it is showing now further right torge Lake Charles, And I'm 45 minutes from Lake Charles.. eek scary...

Google Jefferson County Surge maps and click on the first link. It's one of the TV station sites. You'll be able to see what storm cat average surges would flood you. Most of Port Arthur will be in the surge area with a Cat 3 level surge and large areas with only a Cat 2 surge. Remember, Ike is a very large storm and higher than normal surges are anticipated. Anything closer than Galveston Bay could put us in a world of hurt.

[pablolopez26]

Unbelievable that Ike is STILL moving to the Northeast and the models.

Turn to the WNW has not come to fruition yet.

Did you mean the Northwest?? Sorry just wanted to make sure. And your right its still moving NW!

[Evac3]

I absolutely do not understand the thinking on that Texas City advice to stay put. They state Ike is going into the Matagorda Bay area like it's eched in stone.
Are they crazy!!!!

Well, the reason is obvious. It's because I'm in Texas City, and "they" are out to get me!

I'm fully expecting a traffic snarl to rival Rita's tomorrow. Does anyone know the best website to monitor current traffic conditions? Is it Google Maps, or is there someplace better?

I'm still playing catch-up, so maybe somebody has already posted this, but the state has a site with traffic cams. If you click Houston and then the Camera Map tab, it'll give you a map of them. Maybe that can help see what's going on before you leave.

http://www.txdot.gov/travel/traffic_cameras.htm

[caneman]

What is really aggervating me about all this, is we don't know where for sure it is giong, just some where on the Gulf Coast of Texas... For us who are poor and don't have the money to evacuate, we have to wait for the last minute, so I'm sick to my stomach wondering...

I feel your pain evacuating is an enormous undertaking and can cost quite a bit of money. You'llm ake the right choice. Whatever you do make sure you are above any storm surge potential.

[Sabanic]

What is really aggervating me about all this, is we don't know where for sure it is giong, just some where on the Gulf Coast of Texas... For us who are poor and don't have the money to evacuate, we have to wait for the last minute, so I'm sick to my stomach wondering...

Most likely, but not etched in stone.

[THead]

I'm having trouble getting Ike in perspective, size-wise, trying to get my head around him. Is this line of storms going thru Macon, Ga part of Ike? I know the storms in southern ga are, but all the way up to Macon?! Man...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[pablolopez26]

From the Houston Chronicle:

Hurricane Ike shifted 50 miles closer to Galveston on Wednesday, prompting city officials to make mandatory what had been a voluntary evacuation of more than 10,000 residents on the low-lying western end of the island. City Manager Steve LeBlanc said a 9-foot to 11-foot tidal surge could hit Galveston Island.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5993388.html

[tolakram]

The Tropical Analysis forum has a few good sticky posts, where I got the link I PM'ed you, plus forecasts from pro-mets and students.

viewforum.php?f=29

[Sihara]

It is inexcusable but it is also human nature. NExt time one threatens Tampa Bay, I can assure not nearly as many people will reposnd because of the cried wolf nature of people andthe enormous financial and time expense.

I'm sure you're right, and that would be very foolish of them. For those of us living in these vulnerable areas, we can't let our guard down and view last-minute deviations from forecast track as "crying wolf." We have to realize that if we're in the cone - and in a place that doesn't have a long time to evacuate (like the gulf coast) - there will be times we should leave, and when we get back find that everything's fine - and the only reasonable reaction is extreme gratitude. Been there, done that, and was so d*mn glad nothing awful happened.

For the ones in Texas who were not told to evacuate, just hoping that their communities are spared. This Ike looks so huge, and the pressure continues to drop.

[CrazyC83]

What is wrong with these local officials in Texas lowballing all these forecasts???

[Ixolib]

26 seems High...remember that the coastal geography is differnt than LA or Mississippi. Not saying it CANT happen though. Think about the angle of approach. It cant pile water up against the shore the day before landfall like a storm can hitting the NGOM from due south. Actually this could push water away from the coast until pretty close to landfall. However...high waves would still propagate westward to the coast, but just not a pile up of water.

Okay, I'm not a topography expert, but I do know that a lot of folks who live in MS said the "can't" word a whole lot of times before Katrina landfalled.

As for the angle of approach, if you are north or right of the circulation at ANYTIME during the storm's approach, you can bet that the water won't be pushed away from the coastline.

Regardless of the geography / topography, the shelf offshore is shallow, just as it is off the MS coast. Consequently, any water that's now being pushed along by Ike will have nowhere to go but inland. I'd rather err with the 26' than be screwed thinking 16'...

[CrazyC83]

From the Houston Chronicle:

Hurricane Ike shifted 50 miles closer to Galveston on Wednesday, prompting city officials to make mandatory what had been a voluntary evacuation of more than 10,000 residents on the low-lying western end of the island. City Manager Steve LeBlanc said a 9-foot to 11-foot tidal surge could hit Galveston Island.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5993388.html

Still seems really low estimate - they should be issuing a mandatory evacuation for the entire island...

[6SpeedTA95]

Looks like houston is on contraflow.

[Jessie]

Let me share a quick story with Texans who don't think a 20 , 30 or mile jog can happen. Charley was suppose to hit us, I warned my Brother who lived farther South in Cape Coral that he should prepare just in case. He was one of the, oh it never happens to us types, I just pulled up the news this morning and they didn't say anything about, jaded type from previous storms that were suppose to hit but didn't. When the strorm turned he called me terrified, wondering what to do. So, please remember, be prepared and know that if you choose to stay the storm could turn your way. Further, if a storm does turn away and you only get minimal affect, guard yourself against being complacent for the next one. It's normal to get compacent because of the frustration of getting ready and everything else but you have to fight thru that and knowit's just a price you must pay to live near the coast. God Bless..

In regards to the bolded portion, it should be noted that locations farther south and east were situated well within the five day forecast cone, so the wise residents definitely did not ignore that facet. In addition, Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte were located within the Hurricane Watch/Warning as well, so any lack of preparations would have been inexcusable. Fortunately, many people were obviously attuned to the threat.

Ike's slower short term movement may result in a landfall much closer to Galveston, as a sharper turn would be induced just offshore.

Ivan turned at the very, very last moment East and avoided a direct hit on Mobile.