Texas -- Who does what or not!?!

[gboudx]

There's a part of me that strongly agrees with you. On the other hand you've people who (for whatever reason) are completely at sea when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes...those people have little choice but to rely on official directions as the sole arbiter of their actions during a storm event. This is a mistake, in my opinion. As in so many other cases, knowledge is power. In the main I think people who live in the coastal areas really should be aware of the hazards. Like, for example, every few years the Gulf decides to forcibly foreclose on your mortgage.

I just got an email from WWL that St. Bernard is calling for voluntary evacuations for those outside the levees. Saying tides 4-6' above normal. I'm gettin antsy about my family down in Lafitte/Barataria. What about the MS coast?

Edit: 4-6' is on top of 2' tidal activity.

With Hurricane Ike bringing some tropical effects to coastal Louisiana,
St. Bernard Parish officials have called for a voluntary evacuation of
part of the parish.

Parish authorities are asking residents who live outside the flood
protection system on the eastern end of St. Bernard Parish to consider
evacuating because of an anticipated storm surge of 4 to 6 feet, on top of
2 feet of tidal activity.

For more on this story, please click the following link:

http://wwl.com/Voluntary-evacuation-for ... rd/2944936

[txag2005]

I second some opinions in here. I think it's madness that Galveston residents are being told to shelter on the island unless there is some circumstance not to. If Ike is a Cat 4 or 5 close to landfall, Galveston can expect possibly 20+ ft storm surge, even if the storm hits Freeport. That would essentially eliminate the projection of the seawall, and island wide flooding is very possible.

Similar thoughts are held for anyone in a storm surge zone. I wouldn't risk sticking around.

My major beef with no decisions made is that most people are being held here by work or school. Many costal residents that work in Houston are likely required to go to work tomorrow and I doubt businesses will close offices unless Houston and Harris County make decisions. Very scary situation for Houston/Galveston. Also, only a handful of school districts are closed, with HISD being the key that is remaining open this week.

The whole thing with work and school is what is really upsetting me. I really can't to safety until work allows me to, which requires my area to open a mandatory evacuation.

[txag2005]

Matt,

I don't know the "math" for your area, but perhaps this information will help you out?

When evacuation orders are issued, the evacuations should be completed by the time tropical force winds hit.

Every GIS department I know already has the stats on how long it takes to evacuate everyone safely.

Emergency Managers and Government Offficials do use this information when making their decisions.


My heart and prayers go out to all of you in the cone.

I think this is key to what we are seeing here. It's already too late for Galveston/Houston/Harris County to evacuate. Therefore, I don't imagine very many evacuation orders going up, rather more of an urging to go to shelters if needed.

[marigold]

Well, I'll definitely be riding it out at home (near the Houston medical center, just inside the intersection of 610 and 288). I'm a physician at Texas Children's and have been assigned to the relief team, so I'll be called in AFTER Ike passes to relieve all the folks who have been at the hospital for however long it takes to be able to get home safely. I have plenty of water, and my hubby's picking up some extra food that doesn't require heating up and a radio/batteries tomorrow. I'm about to go review some hurricane prep lists to make sure I'm not missing important stuff...oh, and I filled my tank up about 1 hr ago, and the gas station was already out of regular!!

[jasons2k]

Here's the problem - they won't initiate contraflow, etc., unless a mandatory evac. is ordered, and as I understand it, the first call comes from the City of Galveston and then fans out from there. If they "stay put", so does the county, and so-on.

IMO they must, MUST pull the trigger on this now. Precious time is passing and the surge from this will be massive. If you are in Galveston or Harris county and in zones 1-3 I would say leave ASAP.

[gboudx]

Here's the problem - they won't initiate contraflow, etc., unless a mandatory evac. is ordered, and as I understand it, the first call comes from the City of Galveston and then fans out from there. If they "stay put", so does the county, and so-on.

IMO they must, MUST pull the trigger on this now. Precious time is passing and the surge from this will be massive. If you are in Galveston or Harris county and in zones 1-3 I would say leave ASAP.

You can see it now can't you? Mandatory tomorrow morning smack dab in the middle of morning rush hour.

[iiroberts]

Here's the problem - they won't initiate contraflow, etc., unless a mandatory evac. is ordered, and as I understand it, the first call comes from the City of Galveston and then fans out from there. If they "stay put", so does the county, and so-on.

IMO they must, MUST pull the trigger on this now. Precious time is passing and the surge from this will be massive. If you are in Galveston or Harris county and in zones 1-3 I would say leave ASAP.

Good luck on that one, I just heard the mayor of Galveston say, "THERE WILL BE NO EVACUATION", she said we tried that before and it didn't work. She will go down in history as making one of the worse mistakes if this thing hits anywhere near Gavleston.

[marigold]

I'm outside zone 3 by 5 or 7 miles, so I'm hoping it'll be OK. Aside from the fact that I have a responsibility to stay and take care of my patients, I really don't want to crowd the roads since I'm not even in zone 3 and it seems that lots of folks from zones coastal, 1 and 2 haven't evac'ed yet!! They should be on the roads NOW, imho!!!

[txag2005]

Here's the problem - they won't initiate contraflow, etc., unless a mandatory evac. is ordered, and as I understand it, the first call comes from the City of Galveston and then fans out from there. If they "stay put", so does the county, and so-on.

IMO they must, MUST pull the trigger on this now. Precious time is passing and the surge from this will be massive. If you are in Galveston or Harris county and in zones 1-3 I would say leave ASAP.

You can see it now can't you? Mandatory tomorrow morning smack dab in the middle of morning rush hour.

The Mayor of Galveston has already said its too late to evacuate Galveston. If they didn't pull the trigger this afternoon, I don't see how they will tomorrow causing even more gridlock on the freeways.

[gboudx]

Just in from Jeff.

Mandatory Evacuation Order for all evac. zones in Brazoria County at 800am Thursday.

Mandatory Evacuation Orders for areas S of I-35 in Matagorda County.

Mandatory Evacuation Order for W end Galveston, Bolivar, Kemah, Dickinson, and other low lying areas of Galveston County starting at 800am Thursday.

All Tolls are waived on all Harris County Toll Roads

[txag2005]

Here's the problem - they won't initiate contraflow, etc., unless a mandatory evac. is ordered, and as I understand it, the first call comes from the City of Galveston and then fans out from there. If they "stay put", so does the county, and so-on.

IMO they must, MUST pull the trigger on this now. Precious time is passing and the surge from this will be massive. If you are in Galveston or Harris county and in zones 1-3 I would say leave ASAP.

Good luck on that one, I just heard the mayor of Galveston say, "THERE WILL BE NO EVACUATION", she said we tried that before and it didn't work. She will go down in history as making one of the worse mistakes if this thing hits anywhere near Gavleston.

If she really said that, it is one of the idiotic statements I've ever heard.

[Janie2006]

There's a part of me that strongly agrees with you. On the other hand you've people who (for whatever reason) are completely at sea when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes...those people have little choice but to rely on official directions as the sole arbiter of their actions during a storm event. This is a mistake, in my opinion. As in so many other cases, knowledge is power. In the main I think people who live in the coastal areas really should be aware of the hazards. Like, for example, every few years the Gulf decides to forcibly foreclose on your mortgage.

I just got an email from WWL that St. Bernard is calling for voluntary evacuations for those outside the levees. Saying tides 4-6' above normal. I'm gettin antsy about my family down in Lafitte/Barataria. What about the MS coast?

Edit: 4-6' is on top of 2' tidal activity.

The tides are above normal already, and will worsen until Ike passes to the south. Here's the latest information I have on hand, which is almost 3 hours old now.

HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TIDE LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY
HANCOCK COUNTY...EAST FACING SHORES AND TIDAL LAKES. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
THESE STRONG EAST WINDS...TIDE LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
CAN BE EXPECTED.

AS THE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST...THE EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND
MISSISSIPPI COAST THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TIDE LEVELS OF
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED.

FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING ROADWAYS...OUTSIDE OF THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS NEAR
LAKE MAUREPAS ALREADY HAVE WATER LEVELS NEARING LOCAL ROADS.
NAVIGATIONAL LOCK OPERATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED DUE TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES. PROPERTIES NEAR THE BEACH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST AND LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR BAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HANCOCK
COUNTY...WILL BE AFFECTED.

[TexasSam]

From Wikipedia:

The seawall is presently 10 miles (16 km) long. It is approximately 17 feet (5.2 m) high, and 16 feet (4.9 m) thick at its base. The seawall was listed in the National Register of Historic Places in 1977 and designated a National Civil Engineering Landmark by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) in 2001.[

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Seawall

[Janie2006]

IMO they must, MUST pull the trigger on this now. Precious time is passing and the surge from this will be massive. If you are in Galveston or Harris county and in zones 1-3 I would say leave ASAP.

Yep, you're absolutely correct and it seems people somewhere were listening. Thank God.

[mattpetre]

Well, I think we on Storm2K need to set a precedent. DO NOT go to WORK tomorrow! Back one another up and tell everyone that you know and love that they should do the same. By tomorrow night people will not be able to travel safely in Houston. UGH!!! SKIP WORK for one day or two, it's not worth the chance.

[dwg71]

If you connect the points from Day 2 to day 3 using the same arc that all the models have you still have eye passing closer to Matagorda than galveston. but its splitting hairs.

maybe he will take a good jog wsw for the next hour

[njweather]

What does "mandatory evac for all evac zones in Brazoria" mean!?

I live in Zip-Zone-C, does that mean I need to evacuate!?

[JenBayles]

Here's the current evac info:

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
756 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...EVACUATIONS ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EXPANDING...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

CHAMBERS COUNTY:
RESIDENTS OF OAK ISLAND AND SMITH POINT FISHING COMMUNITIES ARE
BEING ASKED TO LEAVE AS ROADWAYS WILL BE SUBMERGED. RESIDENTS OF
CEDAR POINT AND WALKER SUBDIVISIONS IN BEACH CITY AND THOSE LIVING
SOUTH OF FM 1985 ARE ALSO BEING ASKED TO LEAVE.

BRAZORIA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A SPECIAL
NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. RESIDENTS
IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION FROM
BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION BY 10 AM THURSDAY.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN AT 7 AM THURSDAY FOR WEST GALVESTON
ISLAND...JAMAICA BEACH...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...
BACLIFF...AND FREDDIESVILLE. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED FOR LOW-LYING AREAS IN DICKINSON...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE
SHORES...AND LA MARQUE. CITIZENS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING
IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF
YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASE REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER
KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTA FE...AND
FRIENDSWOOD. THE FOLLOWING WILL BE CLOSED STARTING MIDDAY THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GALVESTON...AND DICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING WILL BE
CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LA MARQUE...TEXAS CITY...AND CLEAR CREEK.

THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY WILL CEASE WATER SERVICE TO THE
PENINSULA AT 5 PM ON THURSDAY.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS UNDERWAY FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE AND
WORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL
MATON...COLLEGEPORT... MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR
LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRES PALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS.
BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH
IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.

THESE EVACUATIONS MUST BE COMPLETED BY 6 PM THURSDAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION
OF RESIDENTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35 AND IN BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK FOR
THOSE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MANUFACTURED HOMES THAT ARE NOT
PROPERLY TIED DOWN. IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS.
BE SURE TO TAKE A PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND
FOOD FOR YOUR PET. IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL
BE BOARDED AT A SEPARATE FACILITY.

BE SURE TO START YOUR EVACUATION WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS.

IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318. YOU SHOULD COME TO THE BAY CITY
SERVICE CENTER THURSDAY BEGINNING AT 9 AM OR KC HALL IN PALACIOS
AT 9 AM ON THURSDAY.

RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO THE
SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES TO
OPEN SHELTERS.

ALL SCHOOLS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY
SEPTEMBER 15TH.


WHARTON COUNTY:
WHARTON COUNTY OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGING WHARTON COUNTY CITIZENS
TO EVACUATE IF THEY LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...RV OR A FLOOD PRONE
AREA EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

FORT BEND COUNTY:
PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HAS BEEN SUSPENDED ON FRIDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THE FOLLOWING TIDE LEVELS ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE LEVELS ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN THESE LEVELS MAY BE INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY FOR THE GALVESTON BAY REGION.

TIDE LEVELS WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TIDE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 15 TO 22 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 10 TO 14 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES AND THE
SHORES OF GALVESTON BAY - 8 TO 12 FEET

...WINDS...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BY 2 PM ON FRIDAY WINDS OF 40 TO 60
MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...WINDS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE NEARING
25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED MAKING ELEVATED ROADWAYS POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 8 PM FRIDAY NEAR THE EYEWALL WHICH IS FORECAST
TO COME ONSHORE INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY.

IN CLOSE TO THE EYE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO
MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF
UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL.

ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS
AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE
LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS
WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SWAYING.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.

NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER
POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS
FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY
DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM
SIZED TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE
UPROOTED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT.
LIVESTOCK LEFT OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW
LIVESTOCK DEATHS ARE LIKELY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

AS THE STORM NEARS THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY. REMEMBER THE INNERMOST ROOM WITH
THE GREATEST NUMBER OF WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE YOU WITH SOME SHELTER. DO NOT GO NEAR WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM

[txag2005]

Well, I think we on Storm2K need to set a precedent. DO NOT go to WORK tomorrow! Back one another up and tell everyone that you know and love that they should do the same. By tomorrow night people will not be able to travel safely in Houston. UGH!!! SKIP WORK for one day or two, it's not worth the chance.

That's a tough call to make as the last thign some people need is to put jobs at risk.

My hope is that Harris County orders an evac for my zip code as we're smack in between the Brazoria mandatory evac and the Galveston voluntary evac.

[mattpetre]

Well, I think we on Storm2K need to set a precedent. DO NOT go to WORK tomorrow! Back one another up and tell everyone that you know and love that they should do the same. By tomorrow night people will not be able to travel safely in Houston. UGH!!! SKIP WORK for one day or two, it's not worth the chance.

That's a tough call to make as the last thign some people need is to put jobs at risk.

My hope is that Harris County orders an evac for my zip code as we're smack in between the Brazoria mandatory evac and the Galveston voluntary evac.

I do understand that. It's just that I have faith that most of the brightest minds in Houston follow Storm2K